Uzbekistan: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below
Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview - Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following: - Domestic demand - Private consumption - Fixed investment - Stockbuilding (% of GDP) - Government consumption - Exports of goods and services - Imports of goods and services - Unemployment - Consumer prices - Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) - Government budget (% of GDP) - Short-term interest rates (%) - Long-term interest rates (%) - Exchange rate (vs
US dollar) - Exchange rate (vs
euro) - Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts - Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered
These could include such topics as: - Contributions to GDP growth - Monthly industrial output - Business and consumer confidence - Unemployment rate - Retail sales - Prices and earnings - Consumption and investment - Government balance and debt - GDP and industrial production - Monetary policy and bond yields - Background Information on the country - One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position - Key Facts on the country - Map of the country - Key political facts - Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 - Structure of GDP by output - latest year - Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook - Corruption perceptions index- latest year - Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 - Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year - Composition of goods & services exports - latest year
According to official data, Uzbekistan's GDP grew by 8% in the first nine months of 2015, broadly unchanged from the outturns seen in the last four years. But there is considerable doubt whether this can be the case given the impact of weakness in key trading partners – Russia and Ukraine (both in deep recession) and Kazakhstan – and the plunge in world commodity prices. However, the full impact of weak eternal factors has been mitigated by continued fiscal policy stimulus. Growth will continue to be supported by the government's modernisation programme for industry and infrastructure as well as its privatisation plans, which aim to attract FDI. State assets in four companies were put on sale in early November. Nevertheless, we still forecast a modest slowdown in GDP growth in 2016 to 7.5% as unfavourable external factors continue to bite. Inflation has accelerated and is likely to average 10% in 2015, partly due to double-digit currency depreciation against a strong US$ and higher state spending and only partially offset by lower import costs. We expect inflation to remain at about 10% in 2016. And the trade and current account surpluses are falling steeply due to low commodity export revenues.