US: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below
Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview - Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following: - Domestic demand - Private consumption - Fixed investment - Stockbuilding (% of GDP) - Government consumption - Exports of goods and services - Imports of goods and services - Unemployment - Consumer prices - Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) - Government budget (% of GDP) - Short-term interest rates (%) - Long-term interest rates (%) - Exchange rate (vs
US dollar) - Exchange rate (vs
euro) - Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts - Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered
These could include such topics as: - Contributions to GDP growth - Monthly industrial output - Business and consumer confidence - Unemployment rate - Retail sales - Prices and earnings - Consumption and investment - Government balance and debt - GDP and industrial production - Monetary policy and bond yields - Background Information on the country - One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position - Key Facts on the country - Map of the country - Key political facts - Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 - Structure of GDP by output - latest year - Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook - Corruption perceptions index- latest year - Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 - Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year - Composition of goods & services exports - latest year
The battle continues within the US economy. On the one hand, a strong currency, sluggish global growth and reduced oil and gas capex are weighing on business investment and net exports. On the other, an improving labor market, firming wage growth, low inflation and still-low interest rates are supportive of domestic spending. While we believe the US cannot remain the global growth locomotive indefinitely, we firmly believe there is still plenty of coal in the burner. We anticipate real GDP growth will average around 2.5% in the next couple of years before slowing gradually to around 1.8% by 2025 – in line with our downwardly revised estimate of potential output. Now that the Fed has raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, we foresee a very gradual tightening of monetary policy over the next couple of years.