The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview - Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
Domestic demand - Private consumption - Fixed investment - Stockbuilding (% of GDP) - Government consumption - Exports of goods and services - Imports of goods and services - Unemployment - Consumer prices - Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) - Government budget (% of GDP) - Short-term interest rates (%) - Long-term interest rates (%) - Exchange rate (vs. US dollar) - Exchange rate (vs. euro) - Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts - Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
These could include such topics as:
Contributions to GDP growth - Monthly industrial output - Business and consumer confidence - Unemployment rate - Retail sales - Prices and earnings - Consumption and investment - Government balance and debt - GDP and industrial production - Monetary policy and bond yields - Background Information on the country - One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position - Key Facts on the country - Map of the country - Key political facts - Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 - Structure of GDP by output - latest year - Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook - Corruption perceptions index- latest year - Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 - Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year - Composition of goods & services exports - latest year
Latest indicators suggest that the economy was subdued in H1 2013. Construction has been hit by fiscal consolidation efforts and agriculture by a disease damaging the banana crop. In addition, on the services side, tourism has struggled, with visitor expenditure down 5% year-on-year in H1 2013. After the weak H1 and prospects for H2 subdued by the global background, the Dominican economy is forecast to shrink by 0.2% in 2013 after a fall of 0.5% in 2012. Given the very sluggish performance of the economy, inflation is expected to remain low. In the longer term, we expect the economy to grow by a very modest 1.5% a year. In order to raise potential output, the authorities will need to boost private investment, particularly in the tourism sector, and improve competitiveness. Moreover, our forecast remains vulnerable to a number of downside risks. If growth in the advanced economies loses momentum, this would hold back FDI, remittances and tourism, while further crop diseases or other natural disasters (which occur fairly regularly) would undermine the anticipated weak economic recovery.