The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
- Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
- Forecast Table showing % changes for the country
- with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
- Domestic demand
- Private consumption
- Fixed investment
- Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
- Government consumption
- Exports of goods and services
- Imports of goods and services
- Consumer prices
- Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
- Government budget (% of GDP)
- Short-term interest rates (%)
- Long-term interest rates (%)
- Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
- Exchange rate (vs. euro)
- Economic Overview
- two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
- Charts and Tables
- covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
These could include such topics as:
- Contributions to GDP growth
- Monthly industrial output
- Business and consumer confidence
- Unemployment rate
- Retail sales
- Prices and earnings
- Consumption and investment
- Government balance and debt
- GDP and industrial production
- Monetary policy and bond yields
- Background Information on the country
- One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position
Burma’s new regime has been in power for more than three years and over this period the country has made rapid progress in modernising and opening up its economy.
GDP grew by 7.5% in the fiscal year ending in March 2014 and we expect even faster growth in the next two years.
This will be underpinned by robust growth in construction and services, as well as rising commodity exports and the boost from increasing foreign investment.
The mining sector offers great potential, and commodities will likely be a key driver of future growth.
The government is currently auctioning off plots to international oil and gas companies and according to the Ministry of National Planning and Economic Development there are now 720 foreign companies doing business in Burma.
By value more than 75% of the investment has gone into mining, oil, gas and power, with almost half of the foreign investment into Burma coming from China and Hong Kong.
While the macroeconomic outlook is positive, Burma remains one of Asia’s poorest countries and political risks remain high.
Since 2011, hundreds of people have died in conflict between different ethnic groups.