Azerbaijan: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.he topics listed below.
- Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview - Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following: - Domestic demand - Private consumption - Fixed investment - Stockbuilding (% of GDP) - Government consumption - Exports of goods and services - Imports of goods and services - Unemployment - Consumer prices - Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) - Government budget (% of GDP) - Short-term interest rates (%) - Long-term interest rates (%) - Exchange rate (vs. US dollar) - Exchange rate (vs. euro) - Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts - Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered. These could include such topics as: - Contributions to GDP growth - Monthly industrial output - Business and consumer confidence - Unemployment rate - Retail sales - Prices and earnings - Consumption and investment - Government balance and debt - GDP and industrial production - Monetary policy and bond yields - Background Information on the country - One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position - Key Facts on the country - Map of the country - Key political facts - Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 - Structure of GDP by output - latest year - Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook - Corruption perceptions index- latest year - Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 - Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year - Composition of goods & services exports - latest year
After accelerating to 5.8% in 2013, economic growth is slowing this year.
The Q1 result was disappointing, with GDP rising by just 2.5% on the year; the rate of non-oil growth held up reasonably well at 8.8%, but the hydrocarbon sector shrank again in Q1, although this largely reflects adverse base effects.
As a result of the Q1 figure, we have lowered our 2014 growth forecast slightly to 5%. Oil production is now forecast to be flat this year, while growth in the non-oil sector will be a little weaker due to a smaller rise in public spending as the authorities embark on some modest fiscal consolidation.
Inflation slowed to just 1.7% in April, but is likely to pick up to average 3% this year and 4.5% in 2015, driven by a narrowing non-oil output gap, rising wage growth and low interest rates.
The current account surplus fell again in 2013, to 16.7% of GDP, reflecting the impact of lower oil prices and oil shipments while imports continued to rise, and we expect a further narrowing in the surplus to 11% of GDP this year.