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Cote d'Ivoire: Country Economic Forecast: 06 Feb 2012

4 Pages Oxford Economics SKU: OFE6799202

Since the end, in April 2011, of the civil war that erupted after the disputed presidential elections in late 2010, Alassane Ouattara has been installed as president and Laurent Gbagbo is now held at the International Criminal Court on charges of crimes against humanity. In parliamentary elections held in December 2011, Ouattara's RDR party won a big victory, taking 127 of the 255 seats in the National Assembly, and has formed a coalition with the PDCI. The security situation has improved after the chaos in the first half of 2011, but many problems persist, including rebel activity in the west. There are tensions within the coalition, Gbagbo's supporters remain a threat and thus far there has been little progress towards the political reconciliation process that is needed for lasting stability. The political chaos weighed heavily on the economy in 2011, with GDP falling 5.8% after moderate growth in 2010 and now little higher than the 1999 level (prior to the initial eruption of political strife). Given the more stable politics, the IMF has forecast growth of 8.5% for 2012, with large injections of aid last year geared towards reconstruction helping to kick-start activity. Cocoa output has started to recover and there are hopes of renewed inflows of mining investment. Sustained growth will require large amounts of aid and renewed inflows of FDI, which will be helped by the new US$615m IMF facility approved in November 2011. And debt relief is urgently needed; 40% of 2012 budget spending is on debt service and repayments on a US$2.3bn eurobond have been in default for the past year.

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Cote d'Ivoire: Country Economic Forecast: 06 Feb 2012

Oxford Economics

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