The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
Domestic demand Private consumption Fixed investment Stockbuilding (% of GDP) Government consumption Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Unemployment Consumer prices Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) Government budget (% of GDP) Short-term interest rates (%) Long-term interest rates (%) Exchange rate (vs. US dollar) Exchange rate (vs. euro) Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
These could include such topics as:
Contributions to GDP growth Monthly industrial output Business and consumer confidence Unemployment rate Retail sales Prices and earnings Consumption and investment Government balance and debt GDP and industrial production Monetary policy and bond yields Background Information on the country One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position Key Facts on the country Map of the country Key political facts Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 Structure of GDP by output - latest year Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook Corruption perceptions index- latest year Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year Composition of goods & services exports - latest year
Costa Rica: Country Economic Forecast: 20 Jun 2013
The latest economic activity index shows that the economy continued to slow in Q1, and manufacturing fell sharply on the month in April. The central bank president has announced that an error had led to earlier manufacturing data – and therefore overall growth – being overstated. We have cut our GDP growth forecast for this year to 4%, from 4.2% previously, and may lower it further in the coming months depending on the effects of these data revisions. Interest rates for borrowers have fallen from 9.2% at end 2012 to 6.7% in May, but credit growth to the private sector has also slowed, to 11.7% in Q1 from 12.7% last year. This is expected to have little effect on consumption but may help to limit price rises. CPI inflation fell to 5.3% in May after averaging 6.2% in Q1, bringing it closer to the central bank’s target (of 5% +/-1%). The currency has been largely unaffected by recent exchange rate swings seen in some other countries in the region, in part a reflection of intervention by the authorities. This has helped to secure a steady – if gentle – rise in exports, which increased by 3% in value terms in Q1. Exports are expected to grow at roughly this rate for the rest of this year before picking up more strongly in 2014 as world trade recovers. While President Laura Chinchilla cannot stand for re-election in February 2014, the fair economic performance in prospect is likely to bolster her ruling PLN and its candidate, San Jose mayor Johnny Araya.