Canada: Country Economic Forecast: 08 Feb 2012Oxford EconomicsFebruary 8, 2012 10 Pages - SKU: OFE6800386 |
| Countries covered: Canada Several recent indicators have been reasonably strong, including the Ivey PMI and retail sales. However, monthly GDP fell back in November, and we estimate that quarterly GDP growth slowed to an annualised rate of 1.6% in Q4 2011. For 2011 as a whole, we estimate that output expanded by 2.3%. We expect GDP growth to slow to 2.0% this year, reflecting both a deceleration in the domestic economy and a small deduction to growth from net trade. Rising real incomes and low borrowing costs will support consumer spending and residential investment, but rising unemployment poses a downside risk to these forecasts. Business investment growth is likely to moderate as heightened global uncertainty causes firms to delay investment decisions. Reasonable growth in the US and high oil prices will support Canadian exports. But although weaker domestic demand will result in slower import growth, net trade will subtract marginally from GDP growth. A strong exchange rate and slow productivity growth have resulted in Canadian firms losing competitiveness. The exchange rate is likely to remain strong in the medium term, but productivity growth is forecast to pick up, which will help to ease these pressures. Headline inflation slowed to a 10-month low in December, and it should ease further in 2012. With stable inflation, slower output growth and a loose monetary policy stance in the US, we have pushed back our forecast for the next interest rate rise to Q2 2013. |
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