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Burundi: Country Economic Forecast: 04 Nov 2011

4 Pages Oxford Economics SKU: OFE6666085

Various violent incidents in the last few months and the boycotting of last year's election by the opposition are signs that the security and political situation has become more unstable. However, the economic performance in 2011 has been reasonable, with GDP growth forecast to accelerate to 4.3%, supported by a rise in donor-financed investment, although activity has been dampened by higher food and fuel prices. Although coffee prices have risen, Burundi's exports are likely to have risen only slightly as coffee yields were 22% lower than expected due to drought, pests and low productivity from ageing trees. And coffee output is expected to fall from 24,000 tonnes to 13,000 tonnes in the next season due to a government replanting scheme designed to increase coffee yields to 50,000 tonnes over the next five years. As a result, exports are forecast to fall by 10% in 2012, with sluggish world trade growth also a drag. Overall GDP growth is expected to slow to 3.6%. However, export growth is expected to jump to 32% in 2013 and remain high as the replanting programme bears fruit. Driven by the surge in food and transport costs, alongside rising utility bills, inflation reached 11.7% in September. Domestic food production needs to increase sharply to ensure that domestic food prices moderate. Furthermore, elevated oil prices are likely to keep inflation high as they feed through into distribution costs and prompt second-round effects. Inflation is forecast to average 9% this year and over 11% in 2012.

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Burundi: Country Economic Forecast: 04 Nov 2011

Oxford Economics

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