Oxford Economics

... China, and to a lesser extent Iran and Russia, as well as public spending on infrastructure remained the main drivers of growth. Growth is forecast to remain robust, but to slow slightly to 9% in ...  |  read more...

... still expected to improve through 2013, as demand in the US picks up and solid fundamentals underpin domestic spending. Our forecast for GDP growth remains unchanged at 3.5% this year, followed by 4.8% in 2014. ...  |  read more...

... rollover of existing public debt, have been financed by eurobonds in H1, but a new IMF deal (of up to US$15bn) may be needed to ensure UAH stability and revive investment in 2014. Although consumer ...  |  read more...

... and data on broad money growth is the fastest since June 2008. There are still risks to the US economy, both from abroad (further Eurozone crises) and domestic (mainly the risk of a loss of ...  |  read more...

... on the year in 2013Q1. Domestic demand has started to benefit from the spillover effects deriving from the improved trade conditions. Merchandise imports in 2013Q1 were 4.5% higher than a year earlier, posting the first ...  |  read more...

... degree of slack in the economy and the need to minimize interest rate differentials with the US and so avoid exacerbating exchange rate pressures. Our forecast for GDP growth in Canada this year remains unchanged ...  |  read more...

... 0.2% fall. We think that much of the recent upturn can be attributed to one-off factors, particularly in the automotive sector, and that underlying activity remains very weak. However, some encouragement can be taken in ...  |  read more...

... environment remains weak, particularly in Europe, so export volumes are expected to shrink this year. Industry is forecast to pick up in 2014 as the external environment improves. An overvalued currency has hurt the competitiveness ...  |  read more...

... form a coalition with smaller parties, because a parliamentary majority - requiring 43% of the vote - is out of reach of the leading contenders. Current estimates give GERB 38% of the vote, with 30% ...  |  read more...

... on reduced political uncertainty and a resumption of IMF support needed to encourage renewed FDI and other capital inflows. Inflation slowed to 6.6% in March and may moderate further in the next two months on ...  |  read more...

... the PMI fell in March. We think the current weakness will be short-lived, and expect activity to pick up in H2 this year, helping to deliver GDP growth of 1.6% in 2014. Retail sales rose ...  |  read more...

... sector activity is accelerating. New oil fields are being developed and the exploitation of other natural resources means an improved outlook for medium-term growth. China has become the main trading partner, overtaking France, and is ...  |  read more...

... PMI, which slipped into negative territory in March at 48.3. The last-minute Cypriot banking sector rescue and the unclear outcome of the Italian election will have renewed uncertainties for Swiss companies. We think these will ...  |  read more...