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Next-generation access development: defining trends

Ovum Plc
July 31, 2009
22 Pages - SKU: OV2426139

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The development of NGA networks has the potential to alter the broadband landscape for the better, ushering in a more dynamic playing field. The cost of NGA rollout is stimulating infrastructure-sharing between incumbents, altnets and utilities.

Executive summary: In a nutshell; Key messages; Fibre is paving the way for new access networks owned by new entities; The impact of FTTx will be significant, but it’s a long-term play; Infrastructure-based competition will remain the driving force in many markets; Expect new models to emerge, both now and in the longer term; Infrastructure-sharing and joint ventures will be far more prevalent; Service-based competition will be more prevalent in less dense areas; Wholesale access products will be much more important in certain markets; Expect significant differences in next-generation market dynamics; The NGA context; A consequence of next-generation technology; The implications of IP migration; Fibre drivers: ICT is underpinning economic and social development; Tangible NGA benefits: be patient; Fibre drivers: stakeholder perspectives; The incumbent perspective; The existing network competitor perspective; The new entrant infrastructure player perspective; The regulatory perspective; Can NGA level the playing field? That depends; NGA deployments: global evolution; NGA has momentum, but is a mid- to long-term play; Globally, incumbent deployment rules…; …but alternative investment is strong in Europe; Dealing with the legacy; Incumbents: sweating copper; leveraging xDSL technology advances; NGA and competition: all about the network; Competition: the life-blood of growth and innovation; The most successful competitors today are network players; No network, no business model?; Altnets are moving up the ladder; Infrastructure-based competition will remain the norm; Service-based competition requires development; Facilitating competitor access: key challenges; NGA remedies will not follow on neatly from well-established mechanisms; NGA: headline trends; A more diverse and dynamic market?; Expect more infrastructure-sharing; Greater public intervention will influence direction; The rise of geographic differentiation; Public-private partnerships will feature strongly; In some markets they will change the landscape significantly; In other markets they will play an important complementary role
List of Tables: Table 1: Factors influencing NGA development in various countries; Table 2: ‘Non-telco’ deployments of FTTH/B, 4Q08; Table 3: Selected incumbent plans for NGA deployment; Table 4: Leading competitors and their networks in selected markets, 4Q08; Table 5: Free’s reported margins for broadband access; Table 6: National plans in three AP markets: key parameters
List of Figures: Figure 1: FTTH/B connections by country (year-end 2008); Figure 2: Regional forecasts for FTTH/B and overall consumer broadband connections, 2008-2014; Figure 3: Percentage of competitor versus incumbent DSL lines, 3Q08; Figure 4: The sweet spot for telcos; Figure 5: NGA directions; Figure 6: Multiple approaches to NGA; Figure 7: A blend of infrastructure and service competition

Next-generation access development: defining trends

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