Forecast Update: fixed broadband access equipment
Ovum Plc
August 26, 2009 24 Pages - SKU: OV2482191
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| Ovum forecasts fixed broadband network spending of over $45 billion over the forecast period (2009-2014), with periods of growth alternating with periods of decline in the most likely scenario. After some strong growth in recent years, aggregate fixed broadband subscriber growth is set to slow down, with single-digit annual growth rates over the forecast period. Of the major fixed broadband technologies, spending on consumer FTTx deployments at $23 billion will be the largest category. Cumulative FTTx subscribers, comprised mainly of FTTB and FTTH, will grow at 27% CAGR with Asia-Pacific leading the way. In particular, China is poised to become the fastest growing country with aggressive FTTB deployments. The need for capacity upgrades will drive equipment spending as much as or more than subscriber additions. Among DSL technologies, Ovum expects to see growth from ADSL2+ and VDSL2 categories in selected markets in 2010 and beyond, primarily due to FTTB, FTTC, and FTTN deployments. We also expect the CMTS equipment market to grow from 2010 onwards as DOCSIS 3.0 upgrades gather momentum and MSOs increasingly transport IP video through the CMTS. Vendors need to have products in the growth categories and in several markets during this time to achieve volumes that drive profitability.
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- Executive summary
- In a nutshell
- Ovum view
- Key messages
- Key changes from the previous forecast
- Forecast summary
- Global fixed broadband access market to remain above $7 billion annually during forecast period
- Results for 1Q09
- First-quarter FTTx subscribers are up 27% and are showing no signs of slowing
- DSL shipments drop 10% in 1Q09; CMTS shipments also slump 6% after year of enormous growth
- Long-range market forecast drivers and barriers
- IPTV, competition, and government initiatives will keep broadband network spending on a steady course
- Product group forecasts
- The FTTx market will grow at a faster rate than other access categories
- Regional forecasts
- Stronger subscriber growth expected in developing Asia, Middle East & Africa, and South & Central America
- Market scenarios and early warning signs
- FTTx
- DSL
- CMTS
- List of Figures
- Figure 1: Broadband equipment spending, old vs. new forecast
- Figure 2: Market forecast range, broadband equipment spending, 2006-2014
- Figure 3: FTTx subscriber additions by quarter, 2Q07-1Q09
- Figure 4: Subscriber additions by region, 2Q08-1Q09
- Figure 5: DSL port shipments by quarter, 2Q07-1Q09
- Figure 6: CMTS port shipments (upstream and downstream) by quarter, 2Q07-1Q09
- Figure 7: Forecast by product group, 2006-14
- Figure 8: FTTx revenue forecast by technology
- Figure 9: FTTx revenue by product type, 2006-14
- Figure 10: DSL forecast by technology, 2006-14
- Figure 11: CMTS forecast by technology, 2006-14
- Figure 12: Cumulative subscriber forecast by region, 2006-14
- Figure 13: Broadband spending by region, 2006-2014
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