Forecast Update: RF optical components for cable TV
Ovum Plc
October 1, 2009 27 Pages - SKU: OV2482188
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| Over the forecast period (2009-14), investment in HFC networks will recover from recession-induced caution but will remain muted as MSOs continue to focus on other technologies such as DOCSIS 3.0 to deliver increased broadband speeds. New upstream applications have not emerged. One next-gen architecture — RFoG (radio frequency over glass) — bears watching as it bridges cable and PON standards.
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- Executive summary
- In a nutshell
- Ovum view
- Forecast summary
- Recession recovery this year followed by cyclical trough in 2011
- Definition of forecast coverage
- Short-term dynamics: cyclical decline compounded by macroeconomics
- Economic slowdown had direct impact
- MSO revenues healthy; capex declines but remains high
- Headend expenditures compete with optics for capex
- Long-range market forecast drivers and barriers
- Drivers of optical spending
- Barriers to optical spending
- Swing votes: trends to watch
- Product group forecasts
- Forecast has peaks and valleys over the next five years
- Downstream DWDM QAM transmitters for narrowcast
- Downstream 1310nm and O-band WDM transmitters: fiber pair gain
- Downstream receivers
- Upstream
- Video overlay for broadcast highly efficient in terms of transmitters and amplifiers
- Market scenarios and early warning signs
- Potential good news
- Potential bad news
- Optimistic scenario: With “easy” node segmentation opportunities used up, need for all-fiber more attractive
- Logical node splits
- Physical node splits
- Fiber deep
- New RFoG products
- RFoG fiber plant compatible with PON deployment
- Pessimistic scenario: alternative ways to satisfy broadband demand
- Links
- Appendix A: Cable optics supply chain
- Comparison to telecom supply chain
- Equipment vendors (component customers)
- Arris
- Aurora
- BKTel
- Cisco
- Harmonic
- Motorola
- Teleste
- Component and subsystem vendors
- Applied Optoelectronics Inc.
- BKTel
- Emcore (acquired JDSU)
- Finisar (acquired Optium)
- Cisco
- Furukawa
- Sumitomo (acquired Eudyna)
- JDSU
- Mitsubishi
- Appendix B: MSO capex intentions
- A snapshot of eleven leading MSOs
- List of Tables
- Table 1: Component vendor roles
- Table 2: Leading MSO revenues, capex, and statements
- List of Figures
- Figure 1: Market forecast, optical subsystems market for RF optics into cable TV
- Figure 2: Market forecast, RF optical components for cable TV, global
- Figure 3: Generalized cable network showing functions included in forecast
- Figure 4: Example of subsystem revenues history, 2005-09
- Figure 5: Representative system revenues by quarter, 1Q05-2Q09
- Figure 6: Subsystem forecast by product group, 2006-14
- Figure 7: Blast-and-split architecture, showing that the addition of a third node requires a new DWDM transmitter
- Figure 8: Home-run architecture showing logical but not physical node splits
- Figure 9: WDM for home-run architecture physical node splitting (additional split after logical node split shown in Figure 8)
- Figure 10: Generic RFoG architecture showing forecasted components
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