Southern and Eastern Africa mobile telecoms investment review and forecasts 2010-2014

Summary

The mobile markets in Africa have been some of the fastest growing in the world, attracting interest from developed market operators in search of growth. Operators from Europe, the Middle East and India have all entered these markets, but have found difficulties in achieving profitability. While some markets have only one or two operators, many also have five or more, meaning a profitable network rollout is dependent on keeping costs low. The arrival of submarine cable capacity to Africa’s East coast has opened up a large opportunity in broadband to mobile operators, with little competition from fixed networks. However, the question of achieving a profitable network rollout is once again a challenge.

This report considers the evolution of the Southern and Eastern mobile markets, providing five year subscriber, penetration, ARPU and revenue forecasts for 16 markets across the region (Angola, Botswana, Burundi, Kenya, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Rwanda, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe). It looks at each market in turn, providing background on market dynamics and analysis of how these will impact on future market revenues.

The report also considers investment in network infrastructure. With profitability a key challenge, after surveying the current status of infrastructure rollouts, the report provides case studies and analysis of the issues surrounding key cost cutting measures, including network and tower sharing, outsourcing and use of green technologies.

The report highlights a number of new investment opportunities, including upcoming licences, privatisations and other equity stake sales. With a number of ownership changes likely over the short term, the report identifies clear opportunities, their current status and likely bidders.