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How PC NAND will Undermine DRAM

Objective Analysis
July 1, 2011
74 Pages - SKU: OJA6458148

Abstract Table of Contents Search inside this report Related Reports

DRAM growth has been driven by PC sales since the early 1980s, but that is about to end. Benchmarks prove that NAND flash yields more speed per dollar than DRAM. This study explains how NAND will displace DRAM in PCs, leading to a steady decline in DRAM revenues for the foreseeable future.

Executive Summary
Introduction: The Best Speed-per-Dollar: General Observations
DRAM Yields Diminishing Returns
NAND Is Now Cheaper Than DRAM
NAND GBs Will Always Cost More than HDD
Benchmarks Run Faster on NAND than DRAM: Is Price a Legitimate Measure?; A Chart that Summarizes the Argument; How NAND Price Decreases Impact These Curves
PCIe Survey: Less DRAM: Cutting DRAM Cost & Power; DRAM Cache Replacement; From the Enterprise to the PC
How Consumer Behavior will Support NAND Use: OEM Decision Matrix; MLC: A Legitimate Choice?
Software Changes Will Drive NAND Adoption: Upgrades to Exisiting Software; Automatic Data Placement; New Software Custom-Written for SSDs; University Research
How Will the DRAM Market be Impacted?: The Long-Term Outlook
PCs’ Impact on NAND
The Tests: SYSmark 2007 Preview; HDxPRT 2010; PCMark Vantage; Applications
Methodology
Figures
Tables
Author: Jim Handy
Figures: Figure 1. Impact of DRAM Size on Several Benchmarks; Figure 2. Averaged Benchmark Data Shows Diminishing Returns of Adding DRAM; Figure 3. Historical DRAM and NAND Price per Gigabyte; Figure 4. Historical Ratio of DRAM Price to NAND Price; Figure 5. The Trend of DRAM vs. NAND Prices; Figure 6. Extrapolated DRAM and NAND Flash Manufacturing Cost; Figure 7. Flash & HDD Price per GB Are On Parallel Paths; Figure 8. Ratio of NAND to HDD Price per Gigabyte; Figure 9. Price and Performance of Systems with Two DRAM Sizes and Variable NAND; Figure 10. Price of Different Approaches to the 85% Performance Point; Figure 11. Performance of $120 DRAM/NAND/HDD Subsystem; Figure 12. 2012 Price and Performance of Systems with Two DRAM Sizes and Variable NAND; Figure 13. 2012 Prices for 85% Performance Point; Figure 14. Performance of $90 DRAM/NAND/HDD Subsystem (2012); Figure 15. 2015 Price and Performance of Systems with Two DRAM Sizes and Variable NAND; Figure 16. 2015 Price of Different Approaches to the 85% Performance Point; Figure 17. Advertisement for Desktop PC; Figure 18. Advertisement for Notebook PC; Figure 19. Comparing Automatic and Manual Data Placement; Figure 20. A Hybrid HDD with a Small Main Memory is Faster than an HDD with a Large DRAM; Figure 21. Performance Improvement vs. Added Cost of All Options; Figure 22. SYSmark Productivity Suite Scores for HDD, SSD, and Cached Systems; Figure 23. PCMark Vantage HDD Test Scores for HDD, SSD, and Cached Systems; Figure 24. Latency of Various Media for 4KB Random Reads; Figure 25. Relative Significance of System Overhead; Figure 26. DRAM Gigabyte Growth Declines Due to NAND in the PC; Figure 27. DRAM Revenues Fall Into Constant Decline; Figure 28. DRAM Revenue Growth in Constant Decline; Figure 29. PC Cache will Make Up a Small Portion of the NAND Market; Figure 30. Drive Type Matters, DRAM Size Does Not; Figure 31. DRAM Size Matters, Drive Type Does Not; Figure 32. SYSmark 2007 Overall Score; Figure 33. SYSmark 2007, E-Learning; Figure 34. SYSmark 2007, Video Creation; Figure 35. SYSmark 2007, Productivity; Figure 36. SYSmark 2007, 3D; Figure 37. HDxPRT 2010, Create CD; Figure 38. HDxPRT 2010, Edit Videos; Figure 39. HDxPRT 2010, Digital Camera; Figure 40. HDxPRT 2010, On-The-Go; Figure 41. PCMark Vantage, Overall; Figure 42. PCMark Vantage, Memories; Figure 43. PCMark Vantage, TV & Movies; Figure 44. PCMark Vantage, Gaming; Figure 45. PCMark Vantage, Music; Figure 46. PCMark Vantage, Communication; Figure 47. PCMark Vantage, Productivity; Figure 48. PCMark Vantage, HDD; Figure 49. Adobe Photoshop CS5 (test script); Figure 50. WinRAR, Compressing; Figure 51. WinRAR, Decompressing
Tables: Table 1. DRAM-NAND Splits for a Sub-$70 Memory Budget; Table 2. Intel's History of NAND in the PC; Table 3. Comparison of NVELO and Objective Analysis Test Benches; Table 4. Breakdown of Latency in Different Media; Table 5. Forecast for Worldwide DRAM Shipments as Impacted by NAND in the PC; Table 6. PC NAND Cache Market Forecast

How PC NAND will Undermine DRAM

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