There are two main mobile commerce technology camps: NFC, and "the rest" -- methods based on non-NFC technologies such as SMS, mobile Internet, and mobile applications. NFC is the ‘holy grail' that provides the easiest user experience. Other methods require more work and expertise from the consumer. The question is: will the NFC market respond to these alternatives and get organized, or will it continue on its own path?
Demand for these services and related mobile money services, such as banking, domestic person-to-person payments, and international remittances are undeniable, although its drivers differ around the world. Industrialized regions' customers are becoming comfortable with using their mobile phones for more than just traditional communications. In the developing world, mobile money services have promise as an alternative to scarce financial institutions for money transfers, and as ways to reach the previously "unbanked."
We expect mobile commerce revenue to reach $10 billion by the end of 2013. This growth is driven by the introduction of the tablet computing and the next generation smart phones. The report predicts the future of the industry based on two primary scenarios “Application Domination” and “Rise of New Wireless Devices and Tablets”.
Mobile Network Operators
Mobile Software Developers
OSS/BSS Solution Providers
Handset and Tablet Manufacturers
Mobile Payment Service Providers
Content and Applications Aggregators
Mobile Marketing and Advertising Providers
Telecommunications Infrastructure Providers
Mind Commerce Publishing's research methodology encompasses input from a wide variety of sources.
We rely heavily upon our Subject Matter Experts (SME) in terms of their market knowledge, unique perspective, and vision. We utilize SME industry contacts as well as previous customers and participants in our market surveys and interactive interviews.
In addition, we rely upon our extensive internal database, which contains modeling, qualitative analysis, and quantitative data. We review secondary sources and compare to our primary sources to update previous findings (for prior version reports) and/or compile baseline information for technology and market modeling.
We share preliminary models with industry contacts (select previous clients, experts, and thought leaders) to verify the veracity of initial modeling. Prior to final report production (analysis, findings, and conclusions), we engage in an internal review with internal SMEs as well as cross-expertise, senior staff members to challenge results.
We believe that forecasts should be prepared as part of an integrated process which involves both quantitative as well as qualitative factors. We follow the following 3-step process for forecasting.
Step 1 - Forecasts Input: The inputs for the present and historical revenues are derived from industry players. Financial and other quantitative data for individual sub-market categories are derived from original research and tested with interviews with major industry constituents.
Step 2 - Forecasting of Future Years: Mind Commerce extends forecasts based on a variety of factors including demand drivers as well as supply side data. Key success factors and assumptions are considered.
Step 3 - Validation of Data: The final step is to validate projections, which is accomplished in consultation with both internal and external industry experts, including both topic and regional experts. Adjustments are made to the forecasts based on factors identified throughout this process.