This first ever analysis by Marketdata examines the booming $60 billion “distance learning” or online education industry used by 6.2 million students The industry has grown rapidly since 2002, as lax federal requirements for student loans permitted many consumers to pursue alternative careers or certifications to make themselves more marketable or make a career change. Internet access and heavy advertising also fueled demand. The last recession significantly increased enrollments. However, 2011 is a major transition year, as double-digit growth comes to a halt amid new federal rules regarding Pell grants and Title IV loans, and scrutiny of schools’ recruitment practices. As is true of many high growth sectors, online education has its growing pains—namely “diploma mills” that sell fake degrees and dubious accreditations, prompting critics to question the quality of online courses.
The study examines industry revenues/growth, competitor profiles/rankings, major industry issues, new federal regulations, the impact of the recession, bogus diploma mills, demand vis a vis traditional post-secondary education, etc. Covers national revenues from 2002-2010, 2011 estimates, 2015 forecasts). The study examines major findings of the Babson Survey Research Group and Sloan Consortium annual surveys, combined with proprietary Marketdata research, rankings and interviews.
In-depth profiles included for: The University of Phoenix (Apollo Group), Kaplan Higher Education (Washington Post), Capella University, DeVry University, Strayer University, Argosy University, Corinthian College, American Military University and Career Education.
Introduction - Study Scope, Methodology, Sources Used
Executive Overview of Major Findings
Highlights of ALL study chapters: Discussion of industry nature, evolution and status as of mid-2011, why the industry grew rapidly, 2010-2011 performance, major developments and trends, results of annual Babson Survey Research Group Surveys, number of students enrolled, discussion of effect of the recession, opinions of market consultants, factors affecting demand, findings/outlook of industry leaders/consultants, discussion of impact of new Federal rules and scrutiny of programs’ student default rates and school marketing practices, quality of online degrees vs. traditional degrees, the “diploma mill” problem, industry $ size/growth: 2002-2015 F, main market segments.
Federal Tuition Assistance Programs
Discussion of The Federal Pell Grant Program, yearly appropriations FY 2007-2010
Discussion of 2008 reauthorization of the Higher Education Act, changes to the Title IV Program
Discussion of the "90/10 Rule”
Discussion of Cohort Default Rates
Trends in College Degree Enrollments
Actual and projected numbers for college-age populations, ages 18, 18-24, 25 to 29, 30 to 34, and 35 to 44: 1993 to 2018
Actual and middle alternative projected numbers for total enrollment in all degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by sex and age: 2006-2011
Actual and middle alternative projected numbers for total enrollment in all degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by sex & age: 20012-2018
Diploma Mills: How Prevalent Are They?
The use of “diploma mills” is exploding as the Internet makes bogus degrees easier to get than ever before, estimated number of institutions providing fake degrees, typical cost, how they operate
List of the top 10 diploma mill states in the U.S.
List of 30-plus distance learning accrediting agencies that claim to oversee a variety of online and distance learning college and university degree programs
Why employers are confused about college accreditation
Discussion of new Title IV Regulations on distance learning across state borders
Market Size and Growth
Estimated number of online students enrolled in U.S., growth since 2002, main reasons for growth, impact of latest recession - students switching careers
Discussion of data/annual surveys by Babson Survey Research Group and The Sloan Consortium: reasons for growth
Discussion of large vs. small online education institutions
Impact of the “Gainful Employment” rule enacted on June 2, 2011: finding of Seeking Alpha report
Early growth came from two factors; new institutions moving into the online arena, and institutions growing their existing offerings
2010 Performance - 2009-2010 revenues of the leading online schools (American Public Education, Univ. of Phoenix, Capella, Career Education, Corinthian, DeVry, Strayer, Kaplan), weighted avg. increase of group.
2011 Outlook, based on 1st 6 months sales of industry leaders, how schools are coping with new regulations, status of the economy, etc.
2015 Forecast: outlook by Univ. of Phoenix, Marketdata, industry analysts: the factors that point to continued growth post-regulatory reform
Impact of the “Gainful Employment” rule enacted on June 2, 2011
Estimated Size of Online Education Market: 2002-2015 Marketdata Forecast
2011-2015 - Projected Number of Online Education Students, Share of Total Postsecondary Enrollments.
(Headquarters address and website, program specializations, degrees offered, profile of its customers, related services, recent mergers/acquisitions, recent company developments, accreditations, students enrollments, by type program, company revenues (2009-2010 revenues /expenses, profit), to 1st half 2011, year’s outlook/coping with new regulations, mgmt. opinions, etc.). In-depth profiles for following companies
University of Phoenix (Apollo Group)
Kaplan Higher Education (Washington Post)
Corinthian College/ Everest University Online
American Military University
Projected revenues growth of the leading schools: 2009-2012
Total enrollments for latest period, by major schools
Student age breakdown, by major schools
Sales & marketing costs per student, for major schools: 2009-2010
Default rates on Stafford Loans, by major schools: FY 2005-2008
Title IV as a percent of student funding, by major schools: FY 2005-2010
Tuition at postsecondary institutions - online associates program, by school: 2009
Tuition at postsecondary institutions - online full bachelor’s program, by school: 2009
Revenues derived from online course only, by company/school Address List of the major online education schools.
Reference Directory of Industry Trade Associations & Information Sources
List of online and education industry trade associations, conferences, consultants and experts, research papers, analyst reports, etc. -- address & phones.