Smartphone Evolution Strategies: Premium, Standard and Economy Markets 2011-2016
Juniper Research Limited
July 1, 2011 117 Pages - SKU: JUN6459413
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Extensive Forecasting Suite
In depth Primary Research Program
Industry Benchmark Analysis
This expansive third edition delivers the most detailed assessment of the prospects within the high end handset market to date.
Offering unrivalled industry intelligence, this new report categorises the smartphone market into three price bands - Premium, Standard and Economy - forecasting smartphone shipments for each price band, as well as by four types of Interface Configuration, and by Operating System. Also projected is the wholesale value of smartphone shipments as well as total smartphone data usage, and 3D-enabled smartphones shipments, with all forecasts split by eight key regions up until 2016.
MNO smartphone subsidies and plans, and the impact on subscriber retention costs are explored in detail. This unique investigation into this market also includes primary research and analysis on key technologies used in 118 smartphones recently launched by selected leading players, as well as in-depth recommendations for vendors, operators, application developers, investors.
Key Questions:
1. What is a ‘smartphone’, and how can we segment the market to make sense of this expanding concept?
2. What has the impact of handset subsidies for smartphones been on subscriber retention costs for operators?
3. What are the key trends in smartphone hardware, and how are they likely to develop?
4. What types of smartphone interface will be dominant in the future and why?
5. What will be the relative levels of growth across smartphone price bands?
6. Who are the key players within the smartphone market and how are they performing?
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- Executive Summary
- ES1 Introduction
- ES2 Defining the Smartphone
- ES3 Value Chain
- ES4 Technology Trends
- ES5 Smartphone Forecasts
- ES6 Recommendations
- Definitions within an Expanding Market
- 1.1 Introduction
- 1.2 Defining the Smartphone
- i. The ‘Superphone’ Category: Good for Marketing, Bad for Analysis
- 1.3 Categorising Smartphones
- 1.3.1 Price Bands
- i. Premium Smartphones ($400 and above)
- Figure 1.1: Selected Premium Smartphones ($400 and above)
- ii. Standard Smartphones ($151-$399)
- Figure 1.2: Selected Standard Smartphones ($151-$399)
- iii. Economy Handsets ($150-$26)
- Figure 1.3: Sub-$150 ZTE Smartphones
- iv. Ultra-Low-Cost Handsets ($25 and below)
- 1.3.2 Interface
- Figure 1.4: Examples of Differing Smartphone Interfaces: (left to right) Nokia C5-00, Nokia E5, Nokia E6, Nokia E7, Nokia N8
- 1.3.3 Operating Systems
- Figure 1.5: A Visual Representation of the Smartphone Operating System Market
- Routes to Market
- 2.1 Value Chain
- Figure 2.1: Smartphone Value Chain
- 2.2 Smartphone Plans
- 2.2.1 Monthly Subscription
- Figure 2.2: High, Average and Low Monthly Subscription Cost ($) for Smartphone Plans Split by Country & By Operator (Selected) June 2011
- Figure 2.3: Proportion of Smartphone Plans (%) Split by Country, by Operator (Selected) & by 7 Monthly Subscription Levels ($) June 2011
- Table 2.1: Lowest Monthly Subscription Cost ($) of Smartphone Plans Split by Country June 2011
- 2.2.2 Subsidised Handset Price
- Figure 2.4: Average Subsidised Cost ($) of Smartphones Split by Country, by Handset Price & by 7 Monthly Subscription Levels ($) June 2011
- Figure 2.5: Proportion of Premium Smartphone Plans (%) Split by Country, by Operator (Selected) & by 7 Subsidised Handset Cost Bands June 2011
- 2.2.3 Operator Subsidies
- Figure 2.6: RRP ($) of Selected Smartphones Available in the UK Split by Average Operator Subsidy & Average Subscriber Contribution June 2011
- Figure 2.7: RRP ($) of Selected Smartphones Available in the US Split by Average Operator Subsidy & Average Subscriber Contribution June 2011
- i. UK MNOs End Prepaid Subsidies
- 2.2.4 Subscriber Retention Costs
- Figure 2.8: Orange France & T-Mobile Deutschland Subscriber Retention Costs 2006-2010
- Technology Trends
- 3.1 Introduction
- 3.2 CPU
- Figure 3.1: Proportion of Smartphone Models (%) Launched p.a. Split by CPU Clock Frequency Band 2009-2010
- Table 3.1: Proportion of Smartphone Models (%) Launched p.a. Split by CPU Clock Frequency Band 2009-2010
- Table 3.2: Smartphones with Dual-Core Processors Launched June 2011
- i. Case Study: ARM
- a. Corporate Profile
- b. Strategic Partnerships & Key Clients
- c. Products & Services
- ii. Case Study: Qualcomm
- a. Corporate Profile
- b. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
- c. Products & Services
- 3.3 Memory Storage
- Figure 3.2: Proportion of Smartphone Models (%) Launched p.a. Split by Maximum Memory Storage Capacity 2009-2010
- Table 3.3: Proportion of Smartphone Models (%) Launched p.a. Split by Maximum Memory Storage Capacity 2009-2010
- 3.4 Interface
- 3.4.1 Interface Technology
- Figure 3.3: Proportion (%) of Smartphone Models Split by Interface Launched p.a. 2009-2010
- Table 3.4: Proportion (%) of Smartphones Split by Interface Launched p.a. 2009-2010
- i. Other Interface Technologies
- 3.4.2 Display Size
- Figure 3.4: Proportion of Touchscreen and Slide Dual-Interface Smartphone Models (%) Launched p.a. Split by Display Size 2009-2010
- Table 3.5: Proportion of Touchscreen and Slide Dual-Interface Smartphone Models (%) Launched p.a. Split by Display Size 2009-2010
- i. Case Study: Synaptics
- a. Corporate Profile
- b. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
- c. Products & Services
- Table 3.6: Synaptics ClearPad Products for Smartphones
- 3.5 Camera
- Figure 3.5: Proportion of Smartphone Models (%) Launched p.a. Split by Camera Megapixel Rating 2009-2010
- Table 3.7: Proportion of Smartphone Models (%) Launched p.a. Split by Camera Megapixel Rating 2009-2010
- 3.6 On the Horizon…
- i. NFC
- a. Google
- b. RIM
- c. Samsung
- d. Nokia
- Other Vendors
- ii. 3D
- Figure 3.6: HTC EVO 3D
- iii. Biometrics
- Figure 3.7: Motorola Atrix Fingerprint Reader Screenshot
- The Market for Smartphones
- 4.1 Methodology
- Figure 4.1: Smartphone Forecast Methodology
- 4.2 Handset Installed Base & Shipments
- Figure 4.2: Global Handset Installed Base (m) p.a. Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016
- Table 4.1: Global Handset Installed Base (m) p.a. Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016
- Figure 4.3: Global Handset Shipments (m) p.a. Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016
- Table 4.2: Global Handset Shipments (m) p.a. Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016
- 4.3 Smartphone Shipments
- 4.3.1 Total Shipments
- Table 4.3: Proportion of Global Smartphone Handset Shipments (%) Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016
- Figure 4.4: Global Smartphone Shipments (m) p.a. Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016
- Table 4.4: Global Smartphone Shipments (m) p.a. Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016
- 4.3.2 By Price Band
- i. Economy Handsets ($26-$150)
- Table 4.5: Proportion of Global Smartphone Shipments (%) with Retail Price Range of $26-151 Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016
- Figure 4.5: Global Smartphone Shipments (m) with Retail Price Range of $26-151 Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016
- Table 4.6: Global Smartphone Shipments (m) with Retail Price Range of $26-151 Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016
- ii. Standard Smartphones ($151-$399)
- Table 4.7: Proportion of Global Smartphone Shipments (%) with Retail Price Range of $151-399 Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016
- Figure 4.6: Global Smartphone Shipments (m) with Retail Price Range of $151-399 Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016
- Table 4.8: Global Smartphone Shipments (m) with Retail Price Range of $151-399 Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016
- iii. Premium Smartphones ($400 and above)
- Table 4.9: Proportion of Global Smartphone Shipments (%) with Retail Price of $400 and above Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016
- Figure 4.7: Global Smartphone Shipments (m) with Retail Price Range of $400 and above Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016
- Table 4.10: Global Smartphone Shipments (m) with Retail Price Range of $400 and above Split by Eight Key Regions 2010-2016
- iv. Price Bands - Global Overview
- Figure 4.8: Global Smartphone Shipments (m) Split by Price Band 2010-2016
- Table 4.11: Global Smartphone Shipments (m) Split by Price Band 2010-2016
- 4.3.3 By Interface Technology
- i. Hard-Key-Only
- Table 4.12: Proportion of Hard-Key-Only Smartphones (%) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2016 .. 64
- Figure 4.9: Global Shipments of Hard-Key-Only Smartphones (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010- 2016
- Table 4.13: Global Shipments of Hard-Key-Only Smartphones (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010- 2016
- ii. Fixed Dual-Interface
- Table 4.14: Proportion of Global Smartphone Shipments (%) Which Are Fixed Dual-Interface Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2016
- Figure 4.10: Global Shipments of Fixed Dual-Interface Smartphones (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2016
- Table 4.15: Global Shipments of Fixed Dual-Interface Smartphones (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2016
- iii. Slide Dual-Interface
- Table 4.16: Proportion of Fixed Dual-Interface Smartphones (%) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010- 2016
- Figure 4.11: Global Shipments of Slide Dual-Interface Smartphones (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2016
- Table 4.17: Global Shipments of Slide Dual-Interface Smartphones (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2016
- iv. Touchscreen-Only
- Table 4.18: Proportion of Touchscreen-Only Smartphones (%) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2016
- Figure 4.12: Global Shipments of Touchscreen-Only Smartphones (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2016
- Table 4.19: Global Shipments of Touchscreen-Only Smartphones (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2016
- v. Interface Technology Global Overview
- Figure 4.13: Global Smartphone Shipments (m) Split by Interface Technology 2010-2016
- Table 4.20: Global Smartphone Shipments (m) Split by Interface Technology 2010-2016
- 4.3.4 3D-Enabled Smartphones
- Table 4.21: Proportion of Global Shipments of 3D-Enabled Smartphones (%) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2016
- Figure 4.14: Global Shipments of 3D-Enabled Smartphones (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2016
- Table 4.22: Global Shipments of 3D-Enabled Smartphones (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2016
- 4.3.5 By Operating System
- Table 4.23: Global Market Share of Smartphone Operating Systems (%) 2010-2016
- Figure 4.15: Global Shipments of Smartphones (m) Split by Operating System 2010-2016
- Table 4.24: Global Shipments of Smartphones (m) Split by Operating System 2010-2016
- 4.4 Smartphone Market Value
- Table 4.25: Smartphone Wholesale ASP ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2016
- Figure 4.16: Smartphone Wholesale Revenue ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2016
- Table 4.26: Smartphone Wholesale Revenue ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2016
- 4.5 Smartphone Data Usage
- Table 4.27: Average Monthly Data Usage per Smartphone (MB) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010- 2016
- Figure 4.17: Total Annual Smartphone Data Usage (PB) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2016
- Table 4.28: Total Annual Smartphone Data Usage (PB) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2016
- Recommendations
- Figure 5.1: Apple Shipments (m) p.a. Split by Device 2002 to 2010
- Figure 5.2: Motorola ATRIX with (left) and without (right) ‘Lapdock’
- Figure 5.3: Sony Ericsson’s Xperia Play
- Figure 5.4: Asus Padfone - A Smartphone/Tablet Hybrid
- Figure 5.5: Apple’s iPhone 4
- Figure 5.6: Total Number of 3G/4G Mobile Subscribers (m) p.a. Split by Eight Key Regions 2010- 2016
- Table 5.1: Total Number of 3G/4G Mobile Subscribers (m) p.a. Split by Eight Key Regions 2010- 2016
- Figure 5.7: What is the perfect smartphone display size for you?
- Selected Vendor Profiles
- 6.1 Introduction
- Figure 6.1: Smartphone Vendor Market Share (%) 2009
- Figure 6.2: Smartphone Vendor Market Share (%), 2010
- 6.2 Apple
- Figure 6.3: Apple Total Annual Revenue ($m) Split by Source 2007-2010 (Financial Year Ending 25th September)
- Table 6.1: Apple Total Annual Revenue ($m) Split by Source 2007-2010 (Financial Year Ending 25th September)
- Figure 6.4: Apple’s Quarterly iPhone Shipments (m) vs. iPhone Wholesale ASP ($) Q3 2007-Q2 2011 (Quarter Ending 26th March)
- Table 6.2: Apple’s Quarterly iPhone Shipments (m) & iPhone Wholesale ASP ($) Q3 2007-Q2 2011 (Quarter Ending 26th March)
- Table 6.3: Key Technical Specifications of iPhone Models
- iPhone
- iOS
- App Store
- iTunes
- iCloud
- 6.3 HTC
- Figure 6.5: HTC’s Total Annual Revenue ($m) Split by Region 2007-2010 (Financial Year Ending 31st December)
- Table 6.4: HTC’s Total Annual Revenue ($m) Split by Region 2007-2010 (Financial Year Ending 31st December)
- Figure 6.6: HTC’s Quarterly Device Shipments (m) & Wholesale ASP ($) Q1 2008-Q1 2011 (Quarter Ending 31st March)
- Table 6.5: HTC’s Quarterly Device Shipments (m) & Wholesale ASP ($) Q1 2008-Q1 2011 (Quarter Ending 31st March)
- 6.4 Motorola Mobility
- Figure 6.7: Motorola Mobility’s Annual Device Revenue ($m) vs. Annual Shipments (m) by Device 2006-2010 (Financial Year Ending 31st December)
- Table 6.6: Motorola Mobility’s Annual Shipments (m) by Device Annual ASP ($) & Annual Device Revenue ($m) 2006-2010 (Financial Year Ending 31st December)
- Figure 6.8: Motorola Mobility’s Quarterly Smartphone Shipments (m) Q3 2009-Q1 2011 (Quarter Ending 31st March)
- Table 6.7: Motorola Mobility’s Quarterly Smartphone Shipments (m) Q3 2009-Q1 2011 (Quarter Ending 31st March)
- Figure 6.9: Motorola Mobility Device Revenue Mix (%) Split by Region Q1 2011 (Quarter Ending 31st March) vs. Number of Motorola Mobility Smartphone Models Available in Key Markets within those Regions May 2011
- 6.5 Nokia
- Figure 6.10: Nokia’s Total Annual Revenue ($m) Split by Source 2006-2010
- Table 6.8: Nokia’s Total Annual Revenue ($m) Split by Source 2006-2010
- Figure 6.11: Nokia’s Quarterly Smartphone Shipments (m) vs. Wholesale ASP ($) Q1 2006-Q1 2011 (Financial Year Ending 31st December)
- Table 6.9: Nokia’s Quarterly Smartphone Shipments (m) vs. Wholesale ASP ($) Q1 2006-Q1 2011 (Financial Year Ending 31st December 2010)
- Figure 6.12: Nokia’s Mobile Device Shipments (%) Split by Region Q1 2011
- Handsets
- Symbian
- Ovi Store
- 6.6 RIM
- Figure 6.13: RIM’s Total Revenue ($m) Split by Source (Financial Year Ending 26th February 2011)
- Table 6.10: RIM’s Total Revenue ($m) Split by Source 2007-2011 (Financial Year Ending 26th February)
- Figure 6.14: RIM’s Quarterly Smartphone Shipments (m) vs. Wholesale ASP ($) Q1 2007-Q1 2011 (Financial Year Ending 26th February)
- Table 6.11: RIM’s Quarterly Smartphone Shipments (m) vs. Wholesale ASP ($) Q1 2007-Q12011 (Financial Year Ending 26th February)
- Figure 6.15: RIM’s Revenue Mix (%) by Market FY2011 (Financial Year Ending 26th February)
- Smartphones
- Blackberry OS
- Blackberry App World
- Blackberry Messenger
- Figure 6.16: RIM’s Blackberry Ranges: (left to right) Pearl 3G, Curve 3G, Bold, Torch, Storm2
- 6.7 Samsung
- Figure 6.17: Samsung’s Total Annual Revenue ($m) Split by Source 2007-2010 (Financial YearEnding 31st December)
- Table 6.12: Samsung’s Total Annual Revenue ($m) Split by Source 2007-2010 (Financial YearEnding 31st December)
- Figure 6.18: Samsung’s Quarterly Smartphone Shipments (m) Q1 2009-Q1 2011 (Quarter Ending31st March)
- Table 6.13: Samsung’s Quarterly Smartphone Shipments (m) Q1 2009-Q1 2011 (Quarter Ending31st March) Smartphones Bada (OS) and Samsung Apps (App Store)
- Figure 6.19: Selected Samsung Smartphones: (left to right) Omnia 7, Wave II, Galaxy S II
- Glossary
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