NFC Retail Marketing & Mobile Payments Markets, Forecasts & Strategies 2011-2016
Juniper Research Limited
April 1, 2011 131 Pages - SKU: JUN6276516
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NFC Retail Marketing & Mobile Payments: Markets, Forecasts & Strategies 2011-2016
- Expert Evaluation of NFC Retail & Payments
- NFC ARPU Opportunities Analysed
- Three Extensive Forecast Chapters
This board level evaluation of the rapidly developing NFC market delivers the most extensive appraisal of the industry to date. Across three detailed forecast chapters this report provides a strategic blueprint for companies and market planning professionals aiming to maximise on the growing opportunities within NFC retail marketing and NFC mobile payments.
Three Forecast Chapters: Forecast chapter one projects data for NFC mobile payments including the average number of NFC transactions per handset as well as the number of transactions and transaction value, with all data broken down into NFC ticketing and NFC retail payments. The second forecast chapter projects the market for NFC retail marketing, forecasting the number of NFC Coupons and Smart posters downloaded as well as the total fee value. The third forecast chapter forecasts the ARPU opportunity for NFC Ticketing, Retail payments, Mobile Coupons and Smart posters.
Breadth & Depth of Analysis: From tracking key market developments over the past 12 months this report covers 18 significant industry announcements, assessing the relative prospects for NFC and evaluating eight key regions. The report concludes with vendor briefs of 14 players in the market with Juniper’s view of their strengths and strategic development opportunities.
Key questions the report answers:
1. How many active NFC users will there be in 2016?
2. Which region will show the most growth over the forecast period?
3. What are the ARPU opportunities associated with NFC?
4. How will transaction volumes change over the next five years?
5. Which will be the leading regions for NFC coupons and smart posters?
6. How many NFC mobile tickets will be purchased over the next five years?
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- Executive Summary
- ES.1 Introduction
- ES.2 Primary Research Programme
- ES.3 NFC Market Developments
- ES.4 NFC Drivers & Constraints
- Figure ES.1: NFC Drivers and Constraints
- ES.5 NFC’s Pivotal Role in Shopping
- Figure ES.2: The Mobile Device in the Retail Customer Journey
- ES.6 NFC Device Market Projections
- Figure ES.3: NFC Handsets & Interim Solutions in Use (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
- ES.7 NFC Ticketing and Retail Payments Transaction Value
- Figure ES.4: Total NFC Ticketing and Retail Payments Transaction Value ($m) p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
- ES.8 Headline Conclusion: NFC ARPU Opportunity
- Figure ES.5: NFC Incremental ARPU Opportunity ($) Split by Coupons, Smart Posters, Ticketing, Retail Payments 2011-2016
- Recommendations
- 1. Mobile Commerce: Definition and Segments
- 1.1 Introduction
- Figure 1.1: Verizon Wireless Network Challenges
- 1.2 NFC’s Pivotal Role in Shopping
- Figure 1.2: The Mobile Device in the Retail Customer Journey
- 1.3 Mobile Commerce Market Segments
- Figure 1.3: Mobile Commerce Market Segmentation
- 1.4 Mobile Payment Segments
- 1.4.1 Digital & Physical Goods (Remote Payment)
- 1.4.2 Contactless NFC (POS or Proximity Payment)
- 1.4.3 Mobile Money Person to Person Transfer (Remote Payment)
- 2. NFC & FeliCa Technology
- 2.1 Introduction
- 2.2. Near Field Communication (NFC)
- 2.2.1 Technology
- Figure 2.1: Typical NFC Implementation
- 2.2.2 NFC Forum Interview
- Figure 2.2: NFC in the Automotive Industry
- Figure 2.3: Oyster Card Using MIFARE Technology
- Figure 2.4: Uses of NFC
- Figure 2.5: N Mark Logo
- 2.2.3 Security
- 2.2.4 NFC in the Device
- i. Embedded
- ii. SIM
- 2.2.5 Interim NFC Form Factor Solutions
- Figure 2.6: Integration Phase Comparison - NFC and Mobile Broadband
- i. NFC Stickers
- Figure 2.7: Twinlinx My-Max NFC Sticker
- ii. NFC SD Card
- Figure 2.8: Giesecke & Devrient NFC SD Card
- Figure 2.9: DeviceFidelity In2Pay microSD NFC Solution
- iii. NFC Case or Sleeve for Smartphones
- Figure 2.10: NFC Case for iPhone
- iv. SIM Card Adaptations
- v. NFC POS Merchant Payment Device Adaptations
- Figure 2.11: VeriFone PAYware Mobile Enterprise
- 2.3 FeliCa
- 2.3.1 Introduction
- 2.3.2 Standards & Specification
- Figure 2.12: Sony FeliCa IC Card and Reader/Writer
- 2.3.3 Security
- Figure 2.13: Sony FeliCa Security Features
- Figure 2.14: FeliCa Networks Platform Management
- 2.3.4 Uses
- Figure 2.15: Uses of FeliCa
- 2.3.5 Future FeliCa Roadmap
- Figure 2.16: FeliCa to Global Mobile NFC Roadmap
- 3. NFC & FeliCa Drivers and Constraint
- 3.1 Summary
- Figure 3.1: NFC Drivers and Constraints
- 3.2 NFC Drivers
- 3.2.1. Customer Response
- 3.2.2 Transaction Efficiency & Growth
- 3.2.3 Infrastructure Availability
- 3.2.4 MNO Plans and Successes
- 3.2.5 Future Enhancements
- 3.2.6 Widespread NFC Applications
- 3.2.7 Queue Busting
- 3.2.8 One to One Marketing
- 3.2.9 Smartphone Growth
- 3.3 Constraints
- 3.3.1 Device Availability
- 3.3.2 Business Model
- Figure 3.2: NFC Ecosystem Top Level View
- 3.3.3 Service Complexity and Management
- Figure 3.3: NFC Ecosystem Detailed View
- 3.3.4. Ecosystem Incentivisation
- 3.3.5 POS Acceptance
- 3.3.6 POS Reader Capability
- 3.3.7 User Support
- 3.3.8 Regulatory Hurdles
- 4. NFC Market Developments
- 4.1 Introduction
- 4.2 Mobile Operators
- 4.2.1 GSMA
- 4.2.2 ISIS (USA)
- 4.2.3 France Telecom Orange
- i. Orange Strategy
- ii. Cityzi Pilot
- Figure 4.1: Cityzi Mobile Ticketing
- 4.2.4 Telefonica, Visa & La Caixa (Spain)
- Figure 4.2: Sitges Mobile Shopping
- 4.2.5 Osaifu-keitai (Japan)
- i. FeliCa Services
- Figure 4.3: Osaifu-Keitai Service Concept
- ii. NTT DOCOMO and KT
- 4.2.6 MasterCard, Gemalto, Garanti Bank and Avea (Turkey)
- 4.2.7 Orange, Telefonica and Vodafone
- 4.2.8 Deutsche Telekom (Germany)
- 4.3 Handset Vendors
- 4.3.1 Google
- 4.3.2 RIM
- 4.3.3 Samsung
- Figure 4.4: Samsung Galaxy SII
- 4.3.4 Further Vendors
- 4.4 POS Vendors
- 4.4.1 Ingenico
- Figure 4.5: Ingenico Tellium Pass Plus NFC POS Terminal
- 4.4.2 VeriFone
- Figure 4.6: VeriFone VX Evolution POS Device
- 4.5 Banks & Financial Institutions
- 4.5.1 Bank of America
- Figure 4.7: Bank of America NFC BlackBerry
- 4.5.2 Barclaycard & Orange (UK)
- 4.5.3 Visa Europe & Wireless Dynamics
- Figure 4.8: Wireless Dynamics iCarte Accessory for iPhones
- 4.6 Retailers & Merchants
- 4.6.1 McDonald‟s
- 4.6.2 ATM & Telecom Italia (Italy)
- 4.7 Regional Prospects
- Figure 4.9: Market Development Prospects 2011-2012 for 8 Key Regions
- 5. NFC Market Forecasts: Ticketing and Payments
- 5.1 Introduction
- 5.1.1 NFC Payments
- 5.1.2 New NFC Retail Marketing Opportunities
- 5.2 Methodology
- 5.2.1 Approach and Assumptions
- Figure 5.1: NFC Market Forecast Methodology
- 5.2.2 Main Changes Since Previous Forecast
- 5.3 Mobile Handset Forecast
- Figure 5.2: Mobile Handset Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
- Table 5.1: Mobile Handset Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
- 5.4 NFC Smartphones Forecast
- Table 5.2: NFC Commercial Launches by Country 2011-2012
- Figure 5.3: NFC Smartphones (% of Total Handsets) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
- Table 5.3: NFC Smartphones (% of Total Handsets) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
- Figure 5.4: NFC Smartphones (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
- Table 5.4: NFC Smartphones (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
- 5.5 NFC Featurephones & Low Cost Handsets Forecast
- Figure 5.5: NFC Featurephones & Low Cost Handsets (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
- Table 5.5: NFC Featurephones & Low Cost Handsets (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
- 5.6 Total Native NFC Handsets
- Figure 5.6: Total NFC Handsets (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
- Table 5.5: NFC Featurephones & Low Cost Handsets (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
- Figure 5.6: Total NFC Handsets (%) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
- Table 5.6: NFC Handsets (%) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
- 5.7 Interim NFC Solutions Forecast
- Figure 5.7: Total Number of Mobile Handsets (m) With Interim NFC Capability Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
- Table 5.7: Total Number of Mobile Handsets (m) With Interim NFC Capability Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
- 5.8 NFC Native Handsets& Interim Solutions
- Figure 5.8: Global Comparison: NFC Handsets vs. Interim Solutions (m) 2011-2016
- Table 5.8 Global Comparison: NFC Handsets vs. Interim Solutions (m) 2011-2016
- 5.9 NFC Enabled Devices in Use
- Figure 5.9: Percentage of Native NFC Handsets in Use Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
- Table 5.9: Percentage of Native NFC Handsets in Use Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
- Figure 5.10: Native NFC Handsets in Use (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
- Table 5.10: Native NFC Handsets in Use (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
- Figure 5.11: NFC Handsets in Use as % of All Mobile Handsets Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016 78
- Table 5.11: NFC Handsets in Use as % of All Mobile Handsets Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
- Figure 5.12: NFC Handsets & Interim Solutions in Use (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
- Table 5.12: NFC Handsets & Interim Solutions in Use (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
- 5.10 NFC Mobile Ticketing Transactions Traffic
- 5.10.1 Average Number of NFC Ticketing Transactions
- Figure 5.13: Average Number of NFC Ticketing Transactions per User p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
- Table 5.13: Average Number of NFC Ticketing Transactions per User p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
- 5.10.2 Total Number of NFC Ticketing Transactions
- Figure 5.14: Total Number of NFC Ticketing Transactions (m) p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2011- 2016
- Table 5.14: Total Number of NFC Ticketing Transactions (m) p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2011- 2016
- 5.11 NFC Ticketing Transaction Value
- Figure 5.15: Average Value of NFC Ticket Transactions ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
- Table 5.15: Average Value of NFC Ticket Transactions ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
- Figure 5.16: Total Value of NFC Ticketing Transactions ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
- Table 5.16: Total Value of NFC Ticketing Transactions ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
- 5.12 NFC Retail Payments Transaction Traffic
- 5.12.1 Average Number of NFC Retail Payments Transactions
- Figure 5.17: Average Number of NFC Retail Payments Transactions per User p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
- Table 5.17: Average Number of NFC Retail Payments Transactions per User p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
- 5.12.2 Total Number of NFC Retail Payments Transactions
- Figure 5.18: Total Number of NFC Retail Payments Transactions (m) p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
- Table 5.18: Total Number of NFC Retail Payments Transactions (m) p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
- 5.13 NFC Retail Payments Transaction Value
- Figure 5.19: Average Value of NFC Retail Payments Transactions ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011- 2016
- Table 5.19: Average Value of NFC Retail Payments Transactions ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
- Figure 5.20: Total Value of NFC Retail Payments Transactions ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011- 2016
- Table 5.20: Total Value of NFC Retail Payments Transactions ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
- 5.14 NFC Total Ticketing and Retail Transaction Traffic
- Figure 5.21: Total Number of NFC Ticketing and Retail Payments Transactions (m) p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
- Table 5.21: Total Number of NFC Ticketing and Retail Payments Transactions (m) p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
- 5.15 NFC Total Ticketing and Retail Payments Transaction Value
- Figure 5.22: Total NFC Ticketing and Retail Payments Transaction Value ($m) p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
- Table 5.22: Total NFC Ticketing and Retail Payments Transaction Value ($m) p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
- 6. NFC Retail Marketing Forecasts: Coupons & Smart Posters
- 6.1 NFC as a Retail Device
- Figure 6.1: NFC Mobile Coupon
- Figure 6.2: Suipo Smart Poster
- 6.2 NFC Mobile Coupons Download Traffic
- Figure 6.3: Total Number of NFC Mobile Coupons Downloaded (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011- 2016
- Table 6.1: Total Number of NFC Mobile Coupons Downloaded (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
- 6.3 NFC Mobile Coupons Total Fee Value
- Figure 6.4: NFC Mobile Coupons Total Fee Value ($m) p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
- Table 6.2: NFC Mobile Coupons Total Fee Value ($m) p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
- 6.4 NFC Smart Poster Download Traffic
- Figure 6.5: Total Number of NFC Smart Poster Downloads (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-201698
- Table 6.3: Total Number of NFC Smart Poster Downloads (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011- 2016
- 6.5 NFC Smart Posters Total Fee Value
- Figure 6.6: NFC Smart Posters Total Fee Value ($m) p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
- Table 6.4: NFC Smart Posters Total Fee Value ($m) p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
- 7. NFC ARPU Opportunity
- 7.1.1 NFC Mobile Ticketing Interchange Fee ARPU
- Table 7.1: NFC Ticketing Transaction Interchange Fee ARPU ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011- 2016
- Figure 7.1: NFC Ticketing Transaction Interchange Fee ARPU ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011- 2016
- 7.1.2 NFC Retail Payment Interchange Fee ARPU
- Figure 7.2: NFC Retail Payment Transaction Interchange Fee ARPU ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
- Table 7.2: NFC Retail Payment Transaction Interchange Fee ARPU ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
- 7.2 NFC Retail Marketing
- 7.2.1 NFC Mobile Coupon Fee ARPU Opportunity
- Figure 7.3: NFC Mobile Coupons Fee ARPU ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
- Table 7.3: NFC Mobile Coupons Fee ARPU ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
- 7.2.2 NFC Smart Posters Fee ARPU Opportunity
- Figure 7.4: NFC Smart Posters Fee ARPU ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
- Table 7.4: NFC Smart Posters Fee ARPU ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
- 7.3 NFC ARPU Opportunity Comparison
- Figure 7.5: NFC Incremental ARPU Opportunity ($) Split by Coupons, Smart Posters, Ticketing, Retail Payments 2011-2016
- Table 7.5: NFC Incremental ARPU Opportunity ($) Split by Coupons, Smart Posters, Ticketing, Retail Payments 2011-2016
- 8. Appraisals of Selected Vendors
- 8.1 Introduction
- 8.2 Broadcom
- Figure 8.1: Topaz Tags
- 8.3 Fundamo
- 8.4 Gemalto
- 8.5 Giesecke & Devrient
- 8.6 More Magic
- 8.7 Nokia
- Figure 8.2: Nokia 2010 Device Volumes by Region (millions)
- 8.8 NXP
- 8.9 Oberthur Technologies
- 8.10 Proxama
- 8.11 Research in Motion (RIM)
- 8.12 Samsung
- 8.13 Think&Go NFC
- 8.14 VeriFone
- 8.15 ViVOtech
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