Mobile Music Opportunities: Market Size, Strategic Analysis & Forecasts 2011-2015
Juniper Research Limited
May 1, 2011 SKU: JUN6387034
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This detailed investigation into the opportunity for mobile music provides an in depth exploration into the complexity of the mobile music ecosystem. Within three forecasting chapters, the report sizes the market for: Ringtones & Ringback tones; Full Track services (downloads & subscriptions); and Music Videos.
The report provides user and revenue forecasts for each category of mobile music, as well as the average price paid for, and total market value of music services on the mobile. It also provides the number of downloads per user, total number of downloads, and adspend on mobile music, all by 8 key regions.
The report sets the scene by establishing mobile music in context of the music industry as a whole, contrasting the latest shipment data of other devices against mobile handsets, and analysing revenues from digital music as a whole against physical sales. It also analyses the impact of piracy through P2P file sharing on the mobile music market and discusses rights holder and government responses.
Key questions the report answers:
- How is mobile music situated within the wider music industry and what are the opportunities for growth?.
- What are the prevailing business models for players within the mobile music industry?
- How has the value chain for mobile music changed?
- What is the potential size of the market for ringtones, ringback tones, full track services and music videos on the mobile platform?
- How are piracy and other challenges hindering the development of mobile music?
- How are copyright holders and governments combating the threat from piracy?
- Who are the major players in the mobile music industry?
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- Executive Summary
- ES1 Introduction
- ES2 Types of Mobile Music
- ES3 The Market for Mobile Music
- Figure ES1: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Music per Year Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015
- Table ES1: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Music per Year Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015
- Figure ES2: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Music per Year Split by 5 Categories (Music Videos, Full Track Subscriptions, Full Track Downloads, Ringback Tones, Ringtones) 2010-2015
- Table ES2: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Music per Year Split by 5 Categories (Music Videos, Full Track Subscriptions, Full Track Downloads, Ringback Tones, Ringtones) 2010-2015
- ES4 Hurdles
- Table ES3: Hurdles to Mobile Music Development
- ES5 Recommendations
- ES5.1 Recommendations for Record Companies
- ES5.2 Recommendations for Operators
- ES5.3 Recommendations for Handset Vendors
- ES5.4 Recommendations for Application Providers
- ES5.5 Recommendations for Legislators
- 1. Mobile Music Market Development
- 1.1 Introduction
- 1.2 The Opportunity for Mobile Music
- 1.2.1 Digital is the Future of Music Distribution
- Figure 1.1: Global Recorded Music Sales ($bn) Split by Format (Digital, Performance Rights & Physical Sales) 2004-2009
- Table 1.1: Global Recorded Music Sales ($bn) Split by Format (Digital, Performance Rights & Physical Sales) 2004-2009
- Figure 1.2: Selected Record Companies’ Digital Revenue as a Percentage of Total Revenue, FY 2006 to FY 2009
- Table 1.2: Selected Record Companies’ Digital Revenue as a Percentage of Total Revenue, FY 2006 to FY 2009
- 1.2.2 Dedicated MP3 Players Establish Market For, and Lose Out to, Music Phones
- Figure 1.3: Shipments of Apple’s iPod & iPhone (m) & Global Digital Music Revenues ($bn) 2002-2010
- Table 1.3: Shipments of Apple’s iPod & iPhone (m) & Global Digital Music Revenues ($bn) 2002-2010
- 1.2.3 Mobile Handsets are Ubiquitous
- 1.2.4 Penetration of Mobile Users Downloading Full Tracks or Subscribing to Full Track Services is Low
- Table 1.4: Penetration (%) of Mobile Users Who Download Full Tracks & Subscribe to Full Track Services Split By 8 Key Regions 2010
- 1.2.5 Penetration of 3G Networks & Rollout of 4G Networks
- Figure 1.4: Global 3G/4G Subscribers (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015
- Table 1.5: Global 3G/4G Subscribers (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015
- 1.2.6 Falling Cost of Data Packages
- Table 1.6: Monthly Cost ($), Usage Limit (MB), Min Cost per MB ($) & Max Cost per MB ($) of PAYG Data Packages from UK MNOs, December 2010
- 1.2.7 Developments in Handset Technology Improve User Experience
- Table 1.7: Specifications of Selected Leading Smartphones 2008-2010
- 1.2.8 Social Networking Aiding Music Discovery
- Figure 1.5: Apple’s iTunes Ping Music-Based Social Networking Service
- 1.3 Mobile Music Definition
- 1.3.1 Ringtones
- Figure 1.6: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Ringtones Split by 8 Key Regions 2007-2010
- Table 1.8: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Ringtones Split by 8 Key Regions 2007-2010 26
- 1.3.2 Ringback Tones
- Figure 1.7: Market Share of Ringback Tones (%) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010 (Value = $4.56 billion)
- 1.3.3 Full Track Services
- i. Sideloading
- Figure 1.8: “Syncing” Music Using Microsoft’s Windows Media Player
- ii. Downloading
- Figure 1.9: Apple’s iTunes Store on The iPhone
- iii. Streaming
- Figure 1.10: Grooveshark’s Mobile App on Google’s Android OS
- 1.3.4 Music Video Downloads
- 1.4 The Value Chain
- Figure 1.11: The Value Chain for Mobile Music
- 1.5 Business Models
- 1.5.1 Pay-per-Download
- Table 1.9: Price ($) of Full Track Downloads of Singles from Selected UK Storefronts, January 2011
- 1.5.2 Subscription
- Table 1.10: Monthly Cost ($), Availability and General Information on Selected Mobile Music Streaming Services
- 1.5.3 Advertising
- a. Case Study: iAd (Apple)
- 1.6 Billing
- 1.6.1 SMS-based Billing
- 1.6.2 Credit Card Billing
- 1.6.3 Operator Billing
- 1.6.4 WAP Billing
- 2. The Market for Mobile Music: Ringtones & Ringback Tones
- 2.1 Introduction
- 2.2 Forecast Methodology
- Figure 2.1: Forecast Methodology
- 2.3 The Market for Mobile Ringtones
- 2.3.2 Users
- Table 2.1: Mobile Users (%) Who Download Ringtones Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015 39
- Figure 2.2: Mobile Users (m) Who Download Ringtones Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015
- Table 2.2: Mobile Users (m) Who Download Ringtones Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015
- 2.3.3 Traffic
- Figure 2.3: Average Number of Ringtones Download per User per Year Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015
- Table 2.3: Average Number of Ringtones Downloaded per User per Year Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015
- Figure 2.4: Total Number of Ringtones Downloaded per Year Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015
- Table 2.4: Total Number of Ringtones Downloaded per Year Split by 8 Regions 2010-2015
- 2.3.4 Revenue
- Table 2.5: Average Cost per Download ($) of Mobile Ringtones Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015
- Figure 2.5: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Ringtones Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015
- Table 2.6: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Ringtones Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015
- 2.4 The Market for Mobile Ringback Tones
- 2.4.2 Users
- Table 2.7: Mobile Users (%) Who Download Ringback Tones Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015
- Figure 2.6: Mobile Users (m) Who Download Ringback Tones Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015
- Table 2.8: Mobile Users (m) Who Download Ringback Tones Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015
- 2.3.3 Traffic
- Figure 2.7: Average Number of Ringback Tone Monthly Subscriptions per User per Year Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015
- Table 2.9: Average Number of Ringback Tone Monthly Subscriptions per User per Year Split By 8 Key Regions 2010-2015
- Figure 2.8: Total Number of Ringback Tone Monthly Subscriptions per Year (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015
- Table 2.10: Total Number of Ringback Tone Monthly Subscriptions per Year (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015
- 2.3.4 Revenue
- Table 2.11: Average Cost per Monthly Subscription ($) of Mobile Ringback Tones Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015
- Figure 2.9: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Ringback Tones Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015
- Table 2.12: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Ringback Tones Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015
- 3. The Market for Mobile Music: Full Track Download & Subscription
- 3.1 The Market for Full-Track Mobile Music Downloads
- 3.1.2 Users
- Table 3.1: Mobile Users (%) Who Download Full-Track Music Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015
- Figure 3.1: Mobile Users (m) Who Download Full-Track Music Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015
- Table 3.2: Mobile Users (m) Who Download Full-Track Music Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015
- 3.1.3 Traffic
- Figure 3.2: Average Number of Full Track Music Downloads via Mobile per User per Year Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015
- Table 3.3: Average Number of Full-Track Music Downloads via Mobile per User per Year Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015
- Figure 3.3: Total Number of Full-Track Music Downloads via Mobile per Year (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015
- Table 3.4: Total Number of Full-Track Music Downloads via Mobile per Year (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015
- 3.1.4 Revenue
- Table 3.5: Average Cost per Download ($) of Full-Track Music Downloads via Mobile Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015
- Figure 3.4: Total Revenues ($m) from Full-Track Music Downloads via Mobile Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015
- Table 3.6: Total Revenues ($m) from Full-Track Music Downloads via Mobile Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015
- 3.2 The Market for Mobile Music Subscription Services
- 3.2.2 Users
- Table 3.7: Mobile Users (%) Who Subscribe to Full-Track Music Subscription Services Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015
- Figure 3.5: Mobile Users (m) Who Subscribe to Full-Track Music Subscription Services Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015
- Table 3.8: Mobile Users (m) Who Subscribe to Full-Track Music Subscription Services Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015
- Figure 3.6: Mobile Users (m) Who Download Full-Track Music Split By Service Subscribers & Ad Hoc Downloaders 2010-2015
- Table 3.9: Mobile Users (m) Who Download Full-Track Music Split By Service Subscribers & Ad Hoc Downloaders 2010-2015
- 3.2.3 Traffic
- Figure 3.7: Average Number of Monthly Music Subscriptions per User per Year Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015
- Table 3.10: Average Number of Monthly Music Subscriptions per User per Year Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015
- Figure 3.8: Total Number of Monthly Music Subscriptions per Year (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015
- Table 3.11: Total Number of Monthly Music Subscriptions per Year (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015
- 3.2.4 Revenue
- Table 3.12: Average Monthly Cost ($) of Mobile Music Subscription Services Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015
- Figure 3.9: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Music Subscription Services Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015
- Table 3.13: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Music Subscription Services Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015
- 4. The Market for Mobile Music: Music Videos & the Total Market
- 4.1 The Market for Mobile Music Videos
- 4.1.2 Users
- Table 4.1: Mobile Users (%) Who Download Music Videos Split By 8 Key Regions 2010-2015
- Figure 4.1: Mobile Users (m) Who Download Music Videos Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015
- Table 4.2: Mobile Users (m) Who Download Music Videos Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015
- 4.1.3 Traffic
- Figure 4.2: Average Number of Music Video Downloads via Mobile per User per Year Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015
- Table 4.3: Average Number of Music Video Downloads via Mobile per User per Year Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015
- Figure 4.3: Total Number of Music Video Downloads via Mobile per Year (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015
- Table 4.4: Total Number of Music Video Downloads via Mobile per Year (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015
- 4.1.4 Revenue
- Table 4.5: Average Monthly Cost ($) of Music Video Downloads via Mobile Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015
- Figure 4.4: Total Revenues ($m) from Music Video Downloads via Mobile Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015
- Table 4.6: Total Revenues ($m) from Music Video Downloads via Mobile Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015
- 4.2 The Total Market for Mobile Music
- Figure 4.5: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Music per Year Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015
- Table 4.7: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Music per Year Split by 8 Key Regions 2010-2015
- Figure 4.6: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Music per Year Split by 5 Categories (Music Videos, Full Track Subscriptions, Full Track Downloads, Ringback Tones, Ringtones) 2010-2015
- Table 4.8: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Music per Year Split by 5 Categories (Music Videos, Full Track Subscriptions, Full Track Downloads, Ringback Tones, Ringtones) 2010-2015
- 5. Hurdles & Regulation
- 5.1 Hurdles
- 5.1.1 Digital Piracy
- i. What is P2P File Sharing?
- Figure 5.1: A Server-Based Network vs. A Peer-to-Peer-Based Network
- ii. The Evolution of P2P File Sharing
- a. Napster
- Figure 5.2: Napster’s v2.0 Beta 7 Running on Windows
- b. BitTorrent
- Figure 5.3: ìTorrent Application
- c. The Extent of P2P
- Figure 5.4: Torrentz.eu Search for “Music”
- Figure 5.5: tTorrent Android Application
- iii. P2P: A Moral Blindspot
- iv. The Way Forward
- 5.1.2 Homemade Ringtones
- Figure 5.6: Using Apple’s Garage Band to Create Ringtones
- Figure 5.7: MP3 Ringtone Maker App for Android Devices by LuckyStar
- 5.1.3 Tiered Data Pricing
- 5.1.4 Network Coverage
- 5.1.5 Limitations of Streaming
- 5.1.6 Operator Willingness to Provide Billing for Content Services
- 5.1.7 DRM (Digital Rights Management)
- 5.2 Regulation and Controls
- 5.2.1 Anti-Piracy Legislation
- i. Graduated Response
- a. Case Study: France’s HADOPI Law
- 5.2.2 Application Content Rating
- Table 5.1: Apple’s iTunes Applications Ratings
- Figure 5.8: iPhone Parental Controls
- 6. Players in Mobile Music
- 6.1 Introduction
- 6.2 Content Providers: The Major Labels
- 6.2.1 EMI Music
- Corporate Profile
- Table 6.1: EMI Revenue ($m) 2006-2010 (Financial year ending 31st March)
- Table 6.2: Share of EMI Total Net Sales (%) By Source H1 2008/9 (Period Ending 30th September 2009) & EMI Internal Estimate of Net Sales By Source 2013
- Strategic Partnerships
- 6.2.2 Sony Music Entertainment
- Corporate Profile
- Table 6.3: Sony BMG/Sony Music Entertainment Sales ($bn) 2005/6-2010/11 (Financial Year Ending 31st March)
- Strategic Partnerships
- 6.2.3 Universal Music Group
- Corporate Profile
- Figure 6.1: Universal Music Group Revenue ($ million) Split by Digital & Other 2005-2009 (Financial Year Ending 31st December)
- Table 6.4: Universal Music Group Revenue ($ million) Split by Digital & Other 2005-2009 (Financial Year Ending 31st December)
- Strategic Partnerships
- 6.2.4 Warner Music Group
- Corporate Profile
- Figure 6.2: Warner Music Group Revenue ($m) Split by Digital & Other 2006-2010 (Financial Year Ending 30th September)
- Table 6.5: Warner Music Group Revenue ($m) Split by Digital & Other 2006-2010 (Financial Year Ending 30th September)
- Strategic Partnerships
- 6.3 Mobile Network Operators
- 6.3.1 Vodafone
- Corporate Profile
- Figure 6.3: Vodafone Group Service Revenues ($m) Split By Region (Europe and Africa, Middle
East & Asia Pacific), Q4 FY 2008 to Q3 FY 2010 - Financial Year Ending 31st March
- Table 6.6: Vodafone Group Service Revenues ($m) Split by Region (Group, Europe, Africa Middle East & Asia Pacific), Q4 FY2008 to Q3 FY 2010 - Financial Year Ending 31st March
- Products & Services
- Vodafone Live!
- Vodafone 360
- Vodafone 360: Apps
- Vodafone 360: Full Track Music
- Figure 6.4: Samsung’s Vodafone 360 H1
- 6.3.2 China Mobile
- Corporate Profile
- Figure 6.5: China Mobile Operating Revenues ($m) Split By Type (Value-Added, Other) 2006-2009 - Financial Year Ending 31st December
- Table 6.7: China Mobile Operating Revenues ($m) Split By Type (Value-Added, Other) 2006-H1 2010 - Financial Year Ending 31st December
- Table 6.8: Number of China Mobile Subscribers (m) 2006-2010
- Products & Services
- Table 6.9: China Mobile Color Ring “Subscriptions” (bn) 2006-2009
- 6.4 Handset Vendors
- 6.4.1 Apple
- Corporate Profile
- Table 6.10: Apple Inc. iPhone Shipments (m), Net Sales From All Products ($bn) and Net Income From All Products ($bn) 2005/6-2009/10 (Financial Year Ending 25th September)
- Products & Services
- iPhone
- Table 6.11: The Evolution of Apple’s iPhone
- Products & Services (cont.)
- iTunes
- Figure 6.6: iTunes on Apple’s iPhone
- 6.4.2 Nokia
- Corporate Profile
- Figure 6.7: Nokia’s Handset Shipments (m) & Net Sales Revenue ($m) 2005-2010
- Table 6.12: Nokia’s Handset Shipments (m) & Net Sales Revenue ($m) 2005-2010
- Products & Services
- Ovi Music Unlimited (formerly Comes With Music) & Ovi Music
- Figure 6.8: Nokia’s Ovi Store Payment Options By Country
- 6.4.3 Sony Ericsson
- Corporate Profile
- Figure 6.9: Sony Ericsson’s Annual Handset Shipments (m) & Sales ($m) 2006-2010
- Table 6.14: Sony Ericsson’s Annual Handset Shipments (m) & Sales ($m) 2006-2010
- Products & Services
- Handsets
- PlayNow & PlayNow plus
- Figure 6.10: Sony Ericsson’s Xperia X10 Running the Mediascape Application
- 6.5 Application Providers
- 6.5.1 Bounce Mobile (Fireplayer)
- Corporate Profile
- Strategy
- Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
- Products & Services
- Figure 6.11: Bounce Mobile’s Fireplayer on the iPhone
- 6.5.2 Omnifone
- Corporate Profile
- Strategy
- Partnerships
- Products & Services
- 6.5.3 Pushlife
- Corporate Profile
- Strategy
- Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships
- Products & Services
- Figure 6.12: Pushlife’s Music App
- 6.5.4 RealNetworks
- Corporate Profile
- Strategy
- Products & Services
- 6.5.5 Shazam
- Corporate Profile
- Strategy
- Products & Services
- Figure 6.13: Shazam
- 6.5.6 Spotify
- Corporate Profile
- Strategy
- Products & Services
- Figure 6.14: Spotify on Symbian, iPhone and HTC Handsets
- Glossary
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