Mobile Games - App Store Strategies, Business Models & Forecasts 2010-2015
Juniper Research Limited
December 1, 2010 120 Pages - SKU: JUN6278557
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This sixth edition of the mobile games report investigates a number of mobile games business models considering the opportunities for freemium content, including in-app purchases, as an alternative to the traditional pay-to-download approach.
Key forecasts include the number of users downloading mobile games, the number of downloads (both offstore and onstore) as well as end-user revenues (pay-per-download and in-game purchases) and mobile advertising expenditure revenues (adspend).
As part of a detailed strategy assessment the report analyses the decline in Java and BREW platforms in relation to the mass deployment of app stores, as well as considering the positive impact of handset development, and highlights challenges to further development of the market, such as, discoverability, and OS fragmentation.
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Additional InformationCompanies Referenced
Activision, AdMob (Google), Apple, AT & T, Barclaycard, Bolt Creative, Capybara, Com2uS, Connect2Media, Digital Chocolate, Electronic Arts, Finblade, Firemint, Fishlabs, Gameloft, Gamevil, GetJar, Glu Mobile, Google, Greystripe, Handango, HTC, iAd (Apple), LG, Microsoft, Motorola, Nintendo, Nokia, Oracle, Qualcomm, Rovio, Samsung, Sony Ericsson, Spacetime Studios, Symbian, Take-Two Interactive Solutions, Vodafone, Volkswagen.
- Executive Summary
- 1. The Mobile Games Industry
- 1.1 Introduction
- 1.2 Development Platforms
- 1.2.1 White Label
- 1.2.2 Branded
- 1.3 The Value Chain
- 1.3.1 The Traditional Value Chain
- Figure 1.1: Traditional Value Chain of Mobile Games
- Figure 1.2: Mobile Games Value Web
- 1.3.2 The App Store Value Chain
- Figure 1.3: App Store Value Chain
- 1.4 Business Models
- 1.4.1 Pay Per Download
- i. Pricing the App
- a. Case Study: Bolt Creative
- Product: Pocket God
- Figure 1.4: Bolt Creative\'s Pocket God
- 1.4.2 Free to Download
- i. Advertising
- a. Case Study: GreyStripe
- b. Case Study: iAd (Apple)
- c. Case Study: AdMob (Google)
- ii. Marketing
- a. Case Study: Fishlabs
- Figure 1.5: Fishlab\'s Barclaycard-Branded Waterslide Extreme on the iPhone
- Figure 1.6: Fislabs\'s Volkswagen-Branded Games VW Polo (left) and VW Scirocco 24 Hour Cup (Right) on the iPhone
- 1.4.3 Freemium
- i. Types of Freemium Games
- a. Lite Games
- b. In-Game Purchases
- ii. Freemium Billing Mechanisms
- Figure 1.7: In-App Purchases Via Store Kit
- 1.5 Delivery Technology
- 1.6 Genres
- 1.6.1 Action
- Figure 1.8: Screenshots of Action Games on the Mobile
- Figure 1.9: iPhone Accelerometer
- 1.6.2 Role-Playing Games
- Figure 1.10: Gamevil\'s RPG Zenonia on the iPhone
- Figure 1.11: 1000: Find \'Em All on the iPhone
- a. Case Study: Spacetime Studios\' Pocket Legends
- Figure 1.12: Pocket Legends on the iPhone
- 1.6.3 Simulation
- Figure 1.13: Tamagotchi: Round the World on the iPhone
- 1.6.4 Casual Games
- a. Case Study: Rovio\'s Angry Birds
- Figure 1.14: Rovio\'s Angry Birds on the iPhone
- 1.6.5 Traditional Games
- Figure 1.15: Electronic Arts\' Monopoly (left) and The Game of Life Classic Edition (right) on the iPhone
- 1.6.6 Excluded Genres
- 1.7 Trends
- 1.7.1 The Decline of Java and BREW
- Figure 1.16: Market Share of Non-iOS/Android Mobile Games Development Platforms Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2010
- Table 1.1: Market Share of Non-iOS/Android Mobile Games Development Platforms Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2010
- 1.7.2 Simplified Value Chain Leads to an Egalitarian Food Chain
- 1.7.3 Mobile Games Become Marketing Tools
- Table 1.2: Selected Brand/Product-Sponsored Games and Number of Downloads
- 1.7.4 Freemium Games Aid Discoverability
- 1.7.5 Improvements in Handset Technology Spur Game Development
- Table 1.3: Handset Technology Development of Selected Manufacturers and Models, 2008-2010
- 1.7.6 User Demographic Shifts
- i. By Age
- Figure 1.17: Percentage of US Teenagers Who Have Played a Game on Their Cell Phone By Age (12-17)
- ii. By Gender
- iii. By Region
- Figure 1.18: Market Share of Mobile Users Who Download Mobile Games Split By 8 Key Regions 2007-2009
- Table 1.4: Market Share of Mobile Users Who Download Mobile Games Split by 8 Key Regions 2007-2009
- 2. The Market for Mobile Games: Downloads
- 2.1 Introduction
- 2.2 Methodology
- Figure 2.1: Bottom-Up Methodology for Derivation of Onstore Mobile Game Adoption, Usage and PPD (Pay-Per-Download) Revenues
- Figure 2.2: Bottom-Up Methodology for Derivation of Offstore Adoption, Usage and PPD (Pay-Per-Download) Revenues
- 2.3 Global Mobile Subscriber Forecast
- Figure 2.3: Global Mobile Subscriber Forecast (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Table 2.1: Global Mobile Subscriber Forecast (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- 2.4 Mobile Games Users and Usage
- Table 2.2: Percentage of Mobile Users Who Download Mobile Games Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Figure 2.4: Number of Mobile Users (m) Who Download Mobile Games Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Table 2.3: Number of Mobile Users (m) Who Download Mobile Games Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- 2.5 The Retail Market for Onstore Mobile Games
- 2.5.1 Onstore Users and Usage
- Table 2.4: Percentage of Mobile Game Downloaders (m) who Download via App Stores Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Figure 2.5: Number of Mobile Game Downloaders (m) who Download via App Stores Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Table 2.5: Number of Mobile Game Downloaders (m) who Download via App Stores Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Figure 2.6: Average Number of Onstore Mobile Game Downloads per User per Year Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Table 2.6: Average Number of Onstore Mobile Game Downloads per User per Year Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Figure 2.7: Total Number of Onstore Mobile Game Downloads (m) per Year Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Table 2.7: Total Number of Onstore Mobile Game Downloads (m) per Year Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- 2.5.2 Retail Value of Onstore Mobile Games
- Table 2.8: Percentage of Onstore Mobile Game Downloads which are Paid For Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Figure 2.8: Number of Onstore Mobile Game Downloads (m) which are Paid for Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Table 2.9: Number of Onstore Mobile Game Downloads (m) which are Paid for Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Table 2.10: Average Price ($) of Onstore Mobile Game Downloads Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Figure 2.9: Retail Value ($m) of Onstore Mobile Games Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Table 2.11: Retail Value ($m) of Onstore Mobile Games Split By 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- 2.6 The Retail Market for Offstore Mobile Games
- 2.6.1 Offstore Users and Usage
- Table 2.12: Percentage of Mobile Game Downloaders who Download Offstore Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Figure 2.10: Number of Mobile Game Downloaders (m) Who Download Offstore Split 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Table 2.13: Number of Mobile Game Downloaders (m) Who Download Offstore Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Figure 2.11: Average Number of Offstore Game Downloads per User per Year Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Table 2.14: Average Number of Offstore Game Downloads per User per Year Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Figure 2.12: Total Number of Offstore Game Downloads per Year (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Table 2.15: Total Number of Offstore Game Downloads per Year (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- 2.6.2 Retail Value of Offstore Mobile Games
- Table 2.16: Percentage of Offstore Game Downloads Which are Paid For Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Figure 2.13: Number of Offstore Game Downloads (m) Which are Paid for Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Table 2.17: Number of Offstore Game Downloads (m) Which are Paid for Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Table 2.18: Price ($) per Download of Offstore Mobile Games Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Figure 2.14: Retail Value ($m) of Offstore Mobile Games Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Table 2.19: Retail Value ($m) of Offstore Mobile Games Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- 2.7 Total Retail Market for Mobile Games
- 2.7.1 Games Usage Levels
- Figure 2.15: Total Mobile Games Downloads (m) Per Year Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Table 2.20: Total Mobile Games Downloads (m) Per Year Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Figure 2.16: Total Mobile Games Downloads (m) Split by Onstore/Offstore 2009-2015
- Table 2.21: Total Mobile Games Downloads (m) Split by Onstore/Offstore 2009-2015
- 2.7.2 Games Retail Revenues
- Table 2.22: Total Download Revenues ($m) of Mobile Games Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Figure 2.17: Total Download Revenue ($m) of Mobile Games Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Figure 2.18: Total Download Revenues ($m) of Mobile Games Split by Onstore/Offstore 2009-2015
- Table 2.23: Total Download Revenues ($m) of Mobile Games Split by Onstore/Offstore 2009-2015
- 3. The Market for Mobile Games: In-Game Purchases
- 3.1 Introduction
- 3.2 Methodology
- Figure 3.1: Bottom Up Methodology for Derivation of Onstore/Offstore End-User Mobile Games Revenues
- 3.3 The Market for In-Game Purchases for Onstore Games
- 3.3.1 Onstore Users and Usage
- Table 3.1: Percentage of Onstore Downloaded Games That Include In-Game Purchases Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Figure 3.2: Number of Onstore Downloaded Games (m) That Include In-Game Purchases Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Table 3.2: Number of Onstore Downloaded Games (m) That Include In-Game Purchases Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Figure 3.3: Average Number of In-Game Purchases Per Onstore Upselling Download Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Table 3.3: Average Number of In-Game Purchases Per Onstore Upselling Download Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Figure 3.4: Total Number of Onstore In-Game Purchases (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Table 3.4: Total Number of Onstore In-Game Purchases (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- 3.3.2 In-Game Purchase Revenues for Onstore Games
- Table 3.5: Price ($) Per In-Game Purchase for Onstore Downloads Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Figure 3.5: In-Game Purchase Revenues ($m) from Onstore Downloads Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Table 3.6: In-Game Purchase Revenues ($m) from Onstore Downloads Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- 3.4 The Market for In-Game Purchases for Offstore Games
- 3.4.1 Offstore Users and Usage
- Table 3.7: Percentage of Offstore Downloaded Games That Include In-Game Purchases Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Figure 3.6: Number of Offstore Downloaded Games That Include In-Game Purchases Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Table 3.8: Number of Offstore Downloaded Games That Include In-Game Purchases Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Figure 3.7: Average Number of In-Game Purchases Per Offstore Upselling Download Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Table 3.9: Average Number of In-Game Purchases Per Offstore Upselling Download Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Figure 3.8: Total Number of Offstore In-Game Purchases (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Table 3.10: Total Number of Offstore In-Game Purchases (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- 3.4.2 In-Game Purchase Revenues for Offstore Games
- Table 3.11: Average Price ($) per In-Game Purchase from Offstore Downloads Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Figure 3.9: In-Game Purchase Revenues ($m) from Offstore Downloads Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Table 3.12: In-Game Purchase Revenues ($m) from Offstore Downloads Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- 3.5 Total Market for In-Game Purchases
- Figure 3.10: Total In-Game Purchase Revenues ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Table 3.13: Total In-Game Purchase Revenues ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Figure 3.11: Total In-Game Purchase Revenues ($m) Split by Onstore/Offstore 2009-2015
- Table 3.14: Total In-Game Purchase Revenues ($m) Split by Onstore/Offstore 2009-2015
- 3.6 Total End User Market for Mobile Games
- 3.6.1 The Implications of the App Store Model
- Figure 3.12: Mobile Games End-User Revenues Split by PPD (Pay-Per-Download) and In-Game Purchases 2009-2015
- Table 3.15: Mobile Games End-User Revenues Split by PPD (Pay-Per-Download) and In-Game Purchases 2009-2015
- Figure 3.13: Mobile Games End-User Revenues (PPD and In-Game Purchases) ($m) Split by Onstore/Offstore 2009-2015
- Table 3.16: Mobile Games End-User Revenues (PPD and In-Game Purchases) ($m) Split by Onstore/Offstore 2009-2015
- 4. The Market for Mobile Games: Advertising
- 4.1 Introduction
- 4.2 Methodology
- Figure 4.1: Methodology for Determining Games-Derived Mobile Adspend, Cost per Click-through Based Model
- 4.3 The Market for Mobile Games Adspend
- 4.3.1 Ad Exposure Levels
- Table 4.1: Percentage of Games Downloads Featuring In-Game Advertising Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Figure 4.2: Number of Games Downloads (m) Featuring In-Game Advertising Split by 8 Key Regions, 2009-2015
- Table 4.2: Number of Games Downloads (m) Featuring In-Game Advertising Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Figure 4.3: Number of Advertisements Viewed per Download per Year Split by 8 Key Regions, 2009-2015
- Table 4.3: Number of Advertisements Viewed per Download per Year Split By 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Figure 4.4: Total Ads Viewed (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Table 4.4: Total Ads Viewed (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- 4.3.2 Response Rates
- Table 4.5: Response Rates to Ads Viewed (Clickthroughs) in Mobile Games Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Figure 4.5: Total Responses to Ads Viewed (Click Throughs) in Mobile Games Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Table 4.6: Total Responses to Ads Viewed (Click Throughs) in Mobile Games Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- 4.3.3 Ad Pricing and Total AdSpend
- Table 4.7: Cost Per Clickthrough (CPC) within Mobile Games Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Figure 4.6: Total AdSpend ($m) on Mobile Games Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- Table 4.8: Total AdSpend ($m) on Mobile Games Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2015
- 5. Hurdles and Regulations
- 5.1 Hurdles
- Table 5.1: Hurdles to Development in the Mobile Games Market
- 5.1.1 App Store Crowding
- 5.1.2 Tiered Data Pricing
- 5.1.3 OS Fragmentation
- 5.1.4 Network Coverage
- 5.1.5 Freemium Games
- 5.1.6 Piracy
- 5.2 Content Regulation
- Table 5.2: Apple\'s iTunes Applications Ratings
- Figure 5.1: iPhone Parental Controls
- 6. Key Players in the Mobile Games Industry
- 6.1 Introduction
- 6.2 Selected Developers and Publishers
- 6.2.1 Activision
- Table 6.1: Activision Blizzard\'s Net Revenues ($m) 2005-2009
- Figure 6.1: Activision\'s Crash Bandicoot Nitro Kart 3D on the iPhone
- 6.2.2 Com2uS
- Table 6.1: Com2uS Total Revenue, Operating Income and Net Income ($m) 2007-2009
- Figure 6.2: Com2uS\' Homerun Battle 3D on the iPhone
- 6.2.3 Digital Chocolate
- Figure 6.3: Digital Chocolate\'s Crazy Catapult Penguin on the iPhone
- 6.2.4 Electronic Arts (EA)
- Table 6.2: Electronic Arts, Inc. Global Net Revenues ($m) Split By Category (Total Console, PC, Total Wireless, Mobile & Licensing) 2008-2010
- Figure 6.4: Screenshot of EA Mobile\'s Madden NFL 11
- Table 6.3: Top 10 Grossing Games on Apple\'s App Store 2009
- Table 6.4: Electronic Arts\' Mobile Games on Apple\'s App Store Chart of the Top 100 Paid Apps, 18th November 2010
- 6.2.5 Firemint
- Figure 6.6 Flight Control Sales By Week, w/c 23 March 2009 to w/c 18 January 2010
- Figure 6.5: Firemint\'s Flight Control (left) and Real Racing (right) on the iPhone
- 6.2.6 Fishlabs
- Figure 6.8: Fishlabs\' Galaxy On Fire (left) and Galaxy on Fire 2 (right) on the iPhone
- 6.2.7 Gameloft
- Table 6.4: Gameloft Net Sales ($m) 2005-9M 2010
- Figure 6.9: The Oregon Trail (left) and Asphalt 5 HD (right) on the iPhone
- Table 6.5: Top-Rated Games on Apple\'s App Store, 2009
- 6.2.8 Gamevil
- Table 6.6: Gamevil\'s Sales ($m) 2008-9M 2010
- Table 6.7: Gamevil\'s Game Prices ($) and Ratings/Downloads Split By Store (App Store, Android Market) 18th November 2010
- Figure 6.11: Baseball Superstars 2010 (left) and Soccer Superstars (right) on the iPhone
- 6.2.9 Glu Mobile
- Table 6.12: Glu Mobile\'s Revenues ($m) 2008-9M 2010
- Figure 6.12: Glu Mobile\'s Deer Hunter 3D (left) and Super KO Boxing 2 (right) on the iPhone
- 6.2.10 Take-Two Interactive Solutions (2K Games and Rockstar Games)
- Table 6.8: Take-Two Interactive Solutions Inc. Net Revenue ($m) and Net Income ($m) 2005-2009
- Figure 6.13: 2K Games\' Civilisation Revolution (left) on Apple\'s iPhone and Rockstar Games\' Grand Theft Auto: Chinatown Wars HD (right) on Apple\'s iPad
- 6.3 Key Distributors: Apple, GetJar, Google, and Nokia
- Figure 6.14: Global App Downloads to Mobile Handsets (m) Split By Storefront (Android Market, App Store, GetJar, Ovi, Other)
- Table 6.9: Global App Downloads to Mobile Handsets (m) Split By Storefront (Android Market, App Store, GetJar, Ovi, Other) 2008-2010
- 6.3.1 Apple
- Table 6.9 Apple Inc. Revenue and Net Income ($bn) 2005-2009 (FYE September 30)
- Table 6.10: Evolution of Apple\'s iPhone
- 6.3.2 Google
- Table 6.11: Google Inc. Revenue ($bn) Split By Type of Revenue (Total Advertising, Web Sites, Network Web Sites, Licensing and Other Revenues) 2005-2009
- Figure 6.15: Google\'s Android Market
- 6.3.3 Nokia
- Table 6.12: Nokia\'s Net Sales ($m) 2005 to Q3 2010
- Figure 6.16: Nokia\'s Ovi Store Payment Options By Country
- 6.3.4 GetJar
- 6.3.5 Operators
- i. Operator App Stores
- a. OHA (Open Handset Alliance)
- b. WAC (Wholesale Application Community) and JIL (Joint Innovation Lab)
- Glossary
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