Business Models for Mobile Content Players: Strategic Options & Scenarios 2007-2012
Juniper Research Limited
September 1, 2007 135 Pages - SKU: JUN1553634
|
|
This detailed report provides strategic planners in mobile content organisations with current and future total nonmessaging
mobile content revenues. The in-depth study is backed up with pertinent research from interviews with
key industry players and focuses on one of the industry’s most important debates: how will the sharing of nonmessaging
mobile content revenues evolve by 2012, and who is likely to retain what portion of those revenues?
To answer these questions, this forward looking report explores three different business model scenarios: Dumb
pipe; On-portal; and Smart pipe, while providing a crucial analysis of the various strategic options available to
optimise organisational profitability.
Key Questions Answered by this Report:
- What will be the size of the non-messaging mobile content (NMMC) market by 2012?
- How will the sharing ofNMMCrevenues evolve by 2012?
- What types of business models will emerge forNMMC?
- Which types of mobile content service provider are likely to profit most from theNMMCmarket by 2012?
- How will the type of business model affect the size of revenues available toNMMCproviders?
- What types of business-to-business or wholesale revenue models will generate the highest revenues by 2012?
- Which types of user-centric value configuration will be most important by 2012?
Main Benefits:
- A unique source of research, analysis and information for the business models for mobile content market including technologies, market characteristics and forecasts.
- Practical analysis of the emerging opportunities available to vendors and operators.
- Unique insights: includes interviews with leading industry players who have significant experience in the business models market.
- Benefit from fresh thinking and an intelligent market assessment from a respected thought leader.
|
- Glossary of Terms
- Executive Summary
- Mobile Content Value Configurations
- From Value Chains to Value Configurations
- Mobile Content Players
- Users’ Expectations of Value are Changing
- Mobile Content Business Models
- Generic Business Models
- Wholesale Business Models
- Mobile Content Revenue/Profit Models
- From Revenues to Profits
- From ARPU to AMPU
- The Wholesale Margin Opportunity
- Retail Mobile Content Charging Mechanisms
- Flat-Rate Charging
- Event-Based Charging
- On-Portal Charging
- Direct-to-Consumer Charging
- Wholesale Mobile Content Charging Mechanisms
- Scenarios for Mobile Content Revenues
- Forecasts
- Key Forecast Findings
- Mobile Content is not yet Significant to MNOs
- The Real Battleground will be Smart Pipe vs. On-Portal
- The On-Portal Model is not Dead - Yet
- Content Providers will Continue to try to Bypass MNOs
- Third Parties may be at Risk
- Key Forecasts by Scenario
- Table ES1: Total Non-Messaging Mobile Content Revenues, 2007-2012 ($m)
- Dumb Pipe Scenario
- Table ES2: Global Non-Messaging Mobile Content Revenue Distribution, Dumb
- Pipe Scenario, 2007-2012 ($m)
- Smart Pipe Scenario
- Table ES3: Non-Messaging Mobile Content Revenue Distribution, Smart Pipe
- Scenario, 2007-2012 ($m)
- On-Portal Scenario
- Table ES4: Non-Messaging Mobile Content Revenue Distribution, On-Portal
- Scenario, 2007-2012 ($m)
- Recommendations for Mobile Content Players
- Mobile Network Operators
- Mobile Content Providers
- Third Parties
- 1. Mobile Content Value Configurations
- 1.1 The Mobile Content Value Chain
- 1.1.1 Controlling the Entire Chain is no Longer Possible
- Figure 1.1: The Mobile Content Value Chain
- i. Disaggregation is Creating Value Networks
- ii. From Value Networks to User-Centric Value Configurations
- Figure 1.2: User-Centric Value Configuration Example
- iii. Value Configurations will be Application-Centric
- iv. Key Functions within Value Configurations
- 1.2 Critical Success Factors for Value Configurations
- 1.2.1 Roles and Responsibilities must be Clearly Identified
- 1.2.2 Partnership Management Systems are Essential
- 1.2.3 Interoperability to Enable Innovation
- 1.3 Mobile Content Players
- 1.3.1 Four Main Categories of Mobile Content Player
- 1.3.2 The Sticky Issue of Customer Ownership
- 1.4 The Value Contradiction
- 1.4.1 Defining Service Provider Value
- 1.4.2 Defining End-User Value
- 1.4.3 The Value Contradiction Leads to Reduced Value
- Figure 1.3: The Reduced-Value Conundrum
- 1.5 Reconciling the Value Contradiction: User-Centricity
- 1.5.1 Mobile Content Availability is Changing User Expectations
- Table 1.1: Changing End-User Expectations for Services 3G & Beyond
- 1.5.2 MNOs are Losing Control of ARPU
- 2. Mobile Content Business Models
- 2.1 What is a Business Model?
- 2.1.1 MCPs Need to Re-Think Their Business Models
- 2.1.2 Multiple Business Models will Co-Exist
- 2.2 Generic Business Models
- 2.2.1 Brokerage
- 2.2.2 Infomediary
- 2.2.3 Merchant
- 2.2.4 Direct-to-Consumer
- 2.2.5 Outsourcing
- 2.2.6 Advertising
- 2.3 Wholesale Business Models
- 2.3.1 Wholesale is Growing Fixed Operators’ Revenues
- 2.3.2 Wholesale Could Reverse Mobile Revenue Decline
- 2.3.3 MCPs Should Consider a Value-Added Wholesale Approach
- 2.3.4 MNOs Need to Understand Wholesale User Requirements
- 2.3.5 Three Categories of Value-Added Wholesale Services
- 2.3.6 Wholesale Services Should be Fully Monetised
- 3. Mobile Content Revenue/Profit Models
- 3.1 Revenue Models
- 3.1.1 The Usage-Based Charging Model Will Decline
- 3.1.2 ARPU Does Not Reflect Mobile Content Revenues
- 3.1.3 The Need for a New Revenue Model
- 3.1.4 The Operator-Push Revenue Model is in Freefall
- Figure 3.1: Operator-Push Revenue Model
- 3.1.5 Wholesale-Pull Revenue Model Can Offset Some Margin Leakage
- Figure 3.2: Wholesale-Pull Revenue Model (MNOs)
- 3.1.6 Increased Wholesale Opportunities for Specialised Third Parties
- 3.2 Profit Models
- 3.2.1 Margin Measurement is Critical
- 3.2.2 The Benefits of Understanding AMPU
- 3.2.3 The Wholesale Margin Opportunity
- 3.3 Retail Revenue/Profit Models
- 3.3.1 Multiple Retail Revenue/Profit Models Co-Exist
- i. Basis for Retail Revenue Generation
- 3.3.2 Retail Mobile Content Charging Mechanisms
- i. Flat-Rate Charging
- ii. Event-Based Charging
- Figure 3.3: Event-Based Revenue Model
- iii. On-Portal Charging
- iv. Direct-to-Consumer Charging
- 3.4 Wholesale Revenue/Profit Models
- 3.4.1 The Role of Mobile Content Wholesale
- i. Mobile Content Wholesale is Not Only for MNOs
- ii. Mobile Content Wholesale may Improve Profitability
- iii. Size of the Mobile Content Wholesale Opportunity
- 3.4.2 New Wholesale Mobile Content Revenue Streams
- i. Wholesale Mobile Content Service Layers
- ii. Social Networking: A Threat to Current SMS/MMS Wholesale
- iii. The Mobile Advertising Wholesale Opportunity
- iv. The Wholesale Mobile Search Opportunity
- 3.4.3 Wholesale Charging Mechanisms
- 3.4.4 Wholesale Revenue-Sharing Arrangements
- i. MNOs and Content Providers
- ii. MNOs and Third Parties
- iii. MNOs and End-Users
- 4. Scenarios for Mobile Content Revenues
- 4.1 Scenario 1: Dumb Pipe
- Figure 4.1: Dumb Pipe Scenario Illustration, 2012
- 4.2 Scenario 2: Smart Pipe
- Figure 4.2: Smart Pipe Scenario Illustration, 2012
- 4.3 Scenario 3: On-Portal
- Figure 4.3: On-Portal Scenario Illustration, 2012
- 5. Forecasts
- 5.1 Forecast Approach
- 5.1.1 What is Included?
- 5.1.2 What is Excluded?
- i. Assumption
- 5.1.3 Methodology
- Figure 5.1: Forecast Methodology
- 5.1.4 Retail Revenue vs. Retained Revenue
- 5.2 Forecast Highlights
- 5.2.1 Mobile Content is Not Yet Significant to MNOs
- 5.2.2 The Real Battleground will be Smart Pipe vs. On-Portal
- 5.2.3 The On-Portal Model is not Dead - Yet
- 5.2.4 Content Providers will Continue to try to Bypass MNOs
- 5.2.5 Third Parties may be at Risk
- 5.2.6 Roles and Responsibilities are Poorly Understood
- 5.3 Mobile Content Subscriber Forecasts
- 5.3.1 Monthly ARPU per Subscriber
- Table 5.2: Monthly ARPU per Subscriber, Split by Voice/Data by Region 2007-2012
- 5.4 Cellular Market Growth
- 5.4.1 Introduction
- 5.4.2 Growth of the Cellular Market
- i Global Cellular Subscriber Market
- Figure 5.2: Cellular Subscriber Growth (m) by Region, 2005-2012
- Table 5.3: Cellular Subscriber Growth (m) by Region, 2005-2012
- Figure 5.3: Cellular Subscriber Base, Market Share by Region (%), 2005-2012
- Figure 5.4: Cellular Subscribers Penetration (%) by Region
- 5.4.3 Regional Cellular Market Growth
- i. North America
- ii. South America
- iii. Western Europe
- iv. Eastern Europe
- v. Far East & China
- vi. Indian Sub Continent
- vii. Rest of Asia Pacific
- viii. Africa and Middle East
- 5.5 Mobile Content Revenue Forecasts
- 5.5.1 Total Annual Data Revenues
- Figure 5.5: Total Annual Data Revenues ($m) by Region 2007-2012
- Table 5.4: Total Annual Data Revenues ($m) by Region 2007-2012
- 5.5.2 Non-Messaging Mobile Content Revenues
- Table 5.5: % Non Messaging Data ARPU by Region 2007-2012
- Figure 5.6: Non Messaging Data Revenues ($m) by Region 2007-2012
- Table 5.6: Non Messaging Data Revenues ($m) by Region 2007-2012
- Figure 5.7: Total Non-Messaging Mobile Content Revenues ($m) by Region, 2007- 2012
- Table 5.7: Total Non-Messaging Revenues (End-User Generated plus Adspend) ($m) by Region 2007-2012
- 5.5.3 Forecasts by Scenario/Type of Player
- i. Dumb Pipe Scenario
- Table 5.8: Global Non-Messaging Mobile Content Revenue Distribution ($m) by Category of Player, Dumb Pipe Scenario, 2007-2012
- ii. Smart Pipe Scenario
- Table 5.9: Non-Messaging Mobile Content Revenue Distribution ($m) by Category of Player, Smart Pipe Scenario, 2007-2012
- iii. On-Portal Scenario
- Table 5.10: Non-Messaging Mobile Content Revenue Distribution ($m) by Category of Player, On-Portal Scenario, 2007-2012
- 5.5.4 Forecasts by Region
- i. North America
- Table 5.11: Net Revenues ($m) Forecast Summary by Scenario, North America 2007-2012
- Table 5.12: Net Revenues ($m) Forecast Summary by Category of Player, North America, 2007-2012
- a. Dumb Pipe
- Figure 5.8: Net Revenues ($m) by Category of Player, Dumb Pipe Scenario, North America 2007-2012
- b. Smart Pipe
- Figure 5.9: Net Revenues ($m) by Category of Player, Smart Pipe Scenario, North America 2007-2012
- c. On-Portal
- Figure 5.10: Net Revenues ($m) by Category of Player, On-Portal Scenario, North America 2007-2012
- ii. South America
- Table 5.13: Net Revenues ($m) Forecast Summary by Scenario, South America 2007-2012
- Table 5.14: Net Revenues ($m) Forecast Summary by Category of Player, South America 2007-2012
- a. Dumb Pipe
- Figure 5.11: Net Revenues ($m) by Category of Player, Dumb Pipe Scenario, South America 2007-2012
- b. Smart Pipe
- Figure 5.12: Net Revenues ($m) by Category of Player, Smart Pipe Scenario, South America 2007-2012
- c. On-Portal
- Figure 5.13: Net Revenues ($m) by Category of Player, On-Portal Scenario, South America 2007-2012
- iii. West Europe
- Table 5.15: Net Revenues ($m) Forecast Summary by Scenario, West Europe, 2007-2012
- Table 5.16: Net Revenues ($m) Forecast Summary by Category of Player, West Europe 2007-2012
- a. Dumb Pipe
- Figure 5.14: Net Revenues ($m) by Category of Player, Dumb Pipe Scenario, West Europe, 2007-2012
- b. Smart Pipe
- Figure 5.15: Net Revenues ($m) by Category of Player, Smart Pipe Scenario, West Europe 2007-2012
- c. On-Portal
- Figure 5.16: Net Revenues ($m) by Category of Player, On-Portal Scenario, West Europe 2007-2012
- iv. East Europe
- Table 5.17: Net Revenues ($m) Forecast Summary by Scenario, East Europe 2007- 2012
- Table 5.18: Net Revenues ($m) Forecast Summary by Category of Player, East Europe 2007-2012
- a. Dumb Pipe
- Figure 5.17: Net Revenues ($m) by Category of Player, Dumb Pipe Scenario, East Europe 2007-2012
- b. Smart Pipe
- Figure 5.18: Net Revenues ($m) by Category of Player, Smart Pipe Scenario, East Europe 2007-2012
- c. On-Portal
- Figure 5.19: Net Revenues ($m) by Category of Player, On-Portal Scenario, East Europe 2007-2012
- v. Far East and China
- Table 5.19: Net Revenues ($m) Forecast Summary by Scenario, Far East & China 2007-2012
- Table 5.20: Net Revenues ($m) Forecast Summary by Category of Player, Far East & China 2007-2012
- a. Dumb Pipe
- Figure 5.20: Net Revenues ($m) by Category of Player, Dumb Pipe Scenario, Far East & China 2007-2012
- b. Smart Pipe
- Figure 5.21: Net Revenues ($m) by Category of Player, Smart Pipe Scenario, Far East & China 2007-2012
- c. On-Portal
- Figure 5.22: Net Revenues ($m) by Player, On-Portal Scenario, Far East & China, 2007-2012
- vi. Indian Sub-Continent
- Table 5.21: Net Revenues ($m) Forecast Summary by Scenario, Indian Sub Continent 2007-2012
- Table 5.22: Net Revenues ($m) Forecast Summary by Category of Player, Indian Sub Continent 2007-2012
- a. Dumb Pipe
- Figure 5.23: Net Revenues ($m) by Category of Player, Dumb Pipe Scenario, Indian Sub-Continent 2007-2012
- b. Smart Pipe
- Figure 5.23: Net Revenues ($m) by Category of Player, Smart Pipe Scenario, Indian Sub-Continent 2007-2012
- c. On-Portal
- Figure 5.24: Net Revenues ($m) by Category of Player, On-Portal Pipe Scenario, Indian Sub-Continent 2007-2012
- vii. Rest of Asia-Pacific
- Table 5.23: Net Revenues ($m) Forecast Summary, Rest of Asia-Pacific 2007-2012
- Table 5.24: Net Revenues ($m) Forecast Summary by Category of Player, Rest of Asia-Pacific 2007-2012
- a. Dumb Pipe
- Figure 5.25: Net Revenues ($m) by Category of Player, Dumb Pipe Scenario, Rest of Asia-Pacific 2007-2012
- b. Smart Pipe
- Figure 5.26: Net Revenues ($m) by Category of Player, Smart Pipe Scenario, Rest of Asia-Pacific 2007-2012
- c. On-Portal
- Figure 5.27: Net Revenues ($m) by Category of Player, On-Portal Pipe Scenario, Rest of Asia-Pacific 2007-2012
- viii. Middle East and Africa
- Table 5.26: Net Revenues ($m) Forecast Summary by Scenario, Middle East & Africa, 2007-2012
- Table 5.27: Net Revenues ($m) Forecast Summary by Category of Player, Middle East & Africa 2007-2012
- a. Dumb Pipe
- Figure 5.28: Net Revenues ($m) by Category of Player, Dumb Pipe Scenario, Middle East & Africa 2007-2012
- b. Smart Pipe
- Figure 5.29: Net Revenues ($m) by Category of Player, Smart Pipe Scenario, Middle East & Africa 2007-2012
- c. On-Portal
- Figure 5.30: Net Revenues ($m) by Category of Player, On-Portal Pipe Scenario, Middle East & Africa 2007-2012
- 6. Recommendations for Mobile Content Players
- 6.1 Overview of Strategic Approach Required
- 6.2 Recommendations for Mobile Network Operators
- 6.3 Recommendations for Content Providers
- 6.4 Recommendations for Third Parties
- 7. Case Studies
- 7.1 Action Engine
- 7.1.1 On-Device Portal Market Development
- 7.1.2 Mobile Advertising via ODPs
- 7.1.3 Charging Models
- 7.2 Blyk
- 7.2.1 The Blyk Model
- 7.2.2 Mobile Advertising
- 7.2.3 Mobile Social Networking
- 7.2.4 The Role of Wholesale
- 7.2.5 Revenue Models
- 7.3 Cingular Wireless (now ATT Wireless)
- 7.3.1 Off-Portal Market Growth
- 7.3.2 Revenue Models
- 7.3.3 Partnerships
- 7.3.4 Off-Portal Revenue Streams
- 7.4 Comptel
- 7.4.1 The Threat to MNOs
- 7.4.2 Emerging Mobile Content Business Models
- 7.4.3 Mobile Content Billing Models
- 7.4.4 Revenue Models
- 7.5 JumpTap
- 7.5.1 Business Models
- 7.5.2 Mobile Advertising Market Drivers
- 7.5.3 The Wholesale Opportunity
- 7.5.4 Revenue Models
- 7.6 mBlox
- 7.6.1 Mobile Content Revenue Models
- 7.6.2 The Role of Wholesale
- 7.6.3 Enablers for Wholesale Market
- 7.6.4 MNO Wholesale Revenue Upside
- 7.7 Mobile Cohesion
- 7.7.1 Wholesale Market Development
- 7.7.2 Development of Value Networks
- 7.8 NewBay
- 7.8.1 Development of Mobile Social Networking
- 7.8.2 Mobile Social Networking Market Drivers
- 7.8.3 Mobile Social Networking Players
- 7.9 O2
- 7.9.1 Market Structure
- 7.9.2 Revenue Models
- 7.9.3 Business Models
- 7.10 Valista
- 7.10.1 Off-Portal Market Development
- 7.10.2 Revenue Models
- 7.10.3 Development of Wholesale
Share this report
Other tasks Related Markets Data Reports Free Alert Me service Receive bi-weekly email alerts on new market research Sign Up Today!
|
