Intellinews Romania Financial Sector Report - February 2012Intellinews
March 12, 2012
33 Pages - SKU: ISI3810444
- Executive summary
- I. Macroeconomic Outlook Emerging Europe Banking – still counting, sharing losses.
- Foreign banks increase four times exposure to Emerging Europe in 2003-2008.
- Losses were generally associated with GDP contraction.
- Lending slowdown caused by demand-side drivers also, besides visible supply-side caution.
- Disintermediation also reflects broken trust.
- McKinsey argues top European banks create little value…
- …but this depends on the definition and coverage of value creation term.
- Romania’s banking system in regional perspective.
- Foreign banks’ exposure vis-à-vis Romania’s banking system down 22% three years after credit crunch.
- Bank lending gains ground modestly in Romania for second year in row in 2011, but stays in the red for the second year also.
- Bulgaria’s banking system avoids losses but intermediation lingers; past experience with banking crisis might have helped.
- Hungary’s banking system faces high costs of massive CHF loans after promising performances so far.
- A. Growth Outlook
- Romania’s GDP grows 1.9% y/y in Q4, up 2.5% in 2011.
- EC downgrades Romania’s 2012 GDP projection, warns of downside risks
- EBRD cuts Romania’s 2012 growth projection to 0.8% on base effects.
- World Bank sees Romania’s economic growth decelerating to 1.5% in 2012.
- B. Relationship with IFIs IMF confirms Romania's funding programme remains on track.
- Romania faces medium to low vulnerability to Eurozone shocks – S&P
- C. Monetary Policy
- Central bank could further cut interest rate if disinflation persists.
- D. Monetary Aggregates
- E. Interest Rates
- Interest rates on local and foreign currency deposits converge.
- Yields on Romania’s 10-year bond drop to 6.75%.
- A. Top Stories
- Stability measures for Austrian banking system may limit lending in CEE, SEE.
- Austria’s regulations not to hinder lending in Eastern Europe – Fitch.
- B. Loans & Deposits
- Corporate loans up 10% y/y at end-Jan 2012
- Bank deposits up 5.5% y/y in Jan 2012 on household savings
- C. Bank Loan Quality
- Overdue payments on bank loans up 31% y/y at end-2011.
- Share of bad loans held by Romanian banks hits 23.5% at end-2011.
- Romanian banks’ provision costs shrink to before-crisis level in Q4 2011.
- D. Corporate News
- Romania's largest bank BCR says its 2011 consolidated net profit shrinks 85%
- Alpha Bank's Romanian arm tries to recover EUR 44mn from real estate firm Ibiza.
- Raiffeisen Bank International lends EUR 95.5mn to Romanian real estate project.
- Volksbank Romania confirms anticipated EUR 200mn capital hike
- ATEbank Romania says not affected by parent group’s restructuring
- Leasing & Consumer Finance
- Romania’s leasing market up 15% y/y to EUR 1.3bn in 2011.
- Pensions, Investments, Insurance
- A. Pension Funds
- Yield of Romanian mandatory pension funds drops to 3.1% in 2011 – report.
- B. Insurance
- Romania’s insurance market shrinks 4.3% in 2011. Public Finance
- General government deficit narrows by 29% to 4.35% of GDP.
- Romania to tap foreign financial markets again in H2
- Romania’s public debt hits 34.3% of GDP at end-2011
- Appendix 1: Main indicators of the Romanian banking system.
- Table 1: Return on equity [ROE, %]
- Table 2: Synthetic comparison of Romania's Bulgaria's and Hungari's banking systems 2011 vs. 2008. [EUR mn where appliable
- Table 3: Banking profitability ratios for Romania vs. Bulgaria
- Table 4: Romania's banking system; key indicators, ratios; Source: BNR, IntelliNews; EUR mn where appliable.
- Table 5: Bulgaria’s banking system; key indicators, ratios; Source: CEIC, IntelliNews; EUR mn where appliable.
- Table 6: Hungary’s banking system; key indicators, ratios; Source: CEIC, IntelliNews; EUR mn where appliable.
- Table 7: Serbia’s banking system; key indicators, ratios; Source: CEIC, IntelliNews; EUR mn where appliable.
- Table 8: Overdue payments (eop)
- Table 9: Romania's Public debt (% of GDP)
- Table 10: Assets quality, risk and profit ratios of the Romania's banking system; eop unless otherwise indicated; quarterly data, 1Q 2008 to 4Q 2011
- Table 11: Ranking of all Romanian banks by assets, 2009 to 2011; plus banks' profit in 2011.
- Table 12: Quality of the stock of bank loans (eop, RON mn unless otherwise indicated)
- Table 13: Total bank loans (EUR bn) Table 14: Romania's insurance market: breakdown, 2009-2011.
- Figure 1: Foreign Banks' Exposure to Emerging Europe Markets; by creditor [CIS incl., 2003-2011, quarterly, USD mn]
- Figure 2: GDP drop 2008-2011 vs. Loan quality
- Figure 3: Foreign banks' exposure to Emerging Europe's banking system [Sep-11; Source: BIS]
- Figure 4: Foreign banks' exposure to Emerging Europe's banking system [EUR, Sep-08=100] Source: BIS, IntelliNews
- Figure 5: Stock of bank loans in selected countries [EUR, Sep-08=100] Source: CEIC, central banks
- Figure 6: Annual change in the stock of bank loans in Romania; EUR mn and % of initial stock; Source: BNR, IntelliNews.
- Figure 7: Annual change in the stock of bank loans in Bulgaria; EUR bn and % of initial stock; Source:CEIC,IntelliNews.
- Figure 8: Annual change in the stock of bank loans in Hungary; EUR mn and % of initial stock; Source: BNR, IntelliNews.
- Figure 9: GDP, seasonally and workday adjusted [2005=100]
- Figure 10:M3 and its components [RON mn]
- Figure 11: Net profit vs.Provision cost [EUR mn, 2008-2011]
- Figure 12: Total bank loans; up to end-January 2012.
- Figure 13: Loans: local vs. forex currency
- Figure 14: Structure, dynamics of bank loans end-January 2012
- Figure 15: Total bank deposits
- Figure 16: Overdue, % of total loans
- Figure 17: Credit Quality vs. Capital adequacy [2008-2010]
- Figure 18: Performance of the Net Unit Value for the 2nd Pillar pension funds [EUR]
- Figure 19: Aggregated net assets of the 2nd Pillar of the pension system [EUR mn]
- Figure 20: Romania's general government budget, 2011 and 4Q11 [RON mn, nominal y/y]
- Figure 21: Largest insurance firms by collected premiums, for each market segment; 2009, 2010 and Jan- Sep 2011.
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