Intellinews Romania Country Report - January 2012

Countries covered: Romania The IntelliNews Romania Country Report is a monthly report, covering the major macroeconomic indicators and trends in Romania, as well as important political developments. Prepared by local analysts, it provides the most accurate data, updated regularly according to the data changes noted by the whole range of statistics sources. It will save the time you would need to track the figures and sources independently and will provide you with thorough analysis.

Additional Information

Romania ended 2011 with a GDP growth of 2-2.5% and was on its way toward further economic strengthening this year. But the on-going deterioration in the eurozone - Romania’s main trade partner and financier, put a question mark on the country’s further development. Weaker external demand and the deleveraging of foreign financial groups active in the country [resulting in fewer financial resources left in the country] are the main threats to the growth this year. The government still hopes for 2% growth, but independent projections indicate expectations for lower rates: 1.5% (WB) or 0.8% (EBRD). In its turn, the government expects the domestic demand prompted by public investments and better EU-fund absorption accounting altogether for more than 11% of GDP.

Romanian banks generated an aggregate loss of nearly EUR 100mn in 2011, according to unofficial sources. Their combined loss thus shrank marginally from a revised EUR 120mn posted in 2010. The profit of the Romanian banking sector plunged from nearly EUR 1.2bn in 2008 to less than EUR 200mn in 2009 to enter the negative territory in 2010. This is consistent with the dynamics of the loan portfolio in Q4. The non-performing loan ratio (NPL ratio) stabilised at 14.4% in Oct-Nov from 14.2% at the end of Q3. The provision cost in Oct-Nov was rather moderate namely slightly over RON 1bn - only EUR 245mn in the two months altogether. The provision cost was RON 2.5bn in Q3 and RON 3bn in Q2.

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