Intellinews Bulgaria Country Report - December 2011

Countries covered: Bulgaria The IntelliNews Bulgaria Country Report is a monthly report, covering the major macroeconomic indicators and trends in Bulgaria, as well as important political developments. Prepared by local analysts, it provides the most accurate data, updated regularly according to the data changes noted by the whole range of statistics sources. It will save the time you would need to track the figures and sources independently and will provide you with thorough analysis.

Additional Information

Bulgaria’s GDP expanded by 1.6% y/y in Q3, decelerating from 2% y/y in Q2, 3.3% in Q1 and 3.7% y/y in Q4 2010, according to preliminary data of the national statistical institute. In line with the weaker results, the IMF said it has lowered its GDP growth forecast for Bulgaria to 1.9% in 2011 and 1.3% in 2012 as compared to initial 2.5% and 3%, respectively.

On a more positive side, Moody's said it expects Bulgaria to remain one of the very few low-debt countries in Europe thanks to continued positive growth and fiscal consolidation measures.

Fitch revised the outlooks on the long-term foreign and local currency issuer default ratings (IDR) of Bulgaria to stable from positive reflecting deteriorating European economic and financial state while Standard & Poor's affirmed the sovereign credit ratings on Bulgaria as a reflection of the government's strong track record of appropriate fiscal policy and low gross and net general government debt. Bulgaria's long- and short-term foreign- and local-currency sovereign credit ratings were affirmed at BBB/A-3 and outlook is stable. Standard & Poor's warned economic slowdown in the country's main trading partners, deleveraging in the home countries of Bulgaria's foreign-owned banks and continuously weak domestic demand have resulted in a weaker growth forecast. "We expect the current economic recovery to lose steam in 2012, and growth to decline to 1.5%, from around 2.0% in 2011", the agency said.

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