Intellinews - Albania Country Report - June 2012

The IntelliNews Albania Country Report is a monthly report, covering the major macroeconomic indicators and trends in Albania, as well as important political developments. Prepared by local analysts, it provides the most accurate data, updated regularly according to the data changes noted by the whole range of statistics sources. It will save the time you would need to track the figures and sources independently and will provide you with thorough analysis.

Albania’s economy contracted for the first time in more than two years shrinking by x.x% y/y in the first quarter of 2012 after expanding at an annual rate of x.x% in the previous three months. The decline came as most economic sectors registered a drop in the output. Still the government is sticking to its GDP growth outlook of x.x% for full-2012, a very optimistic forecast when compared to the estimates of the IMF, the World Bank and the EBRD. They see Albania’s 2012 GDP growth at between x.x% to x.x%. Albania’s economic growth slowed to x.x% y/y in 2011 from 3.9% in 2010 and yet it was slightly above the government’s target of x%.

Rating agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P) confirmed Albania’s B+ long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings with a stable outlook and a week later Moody’s also kept Albania’s B1 government bond ratings and stable outlook. Both credit agencies said they would consider a rating upgrade if the government successfully addresses institutional challenges regarding EU integration. Obtaining an EU candidate status would also be a credit positive signal.