Intellinews - Albania Country Report - Jul 2012

The IntelliNews Albania Country Report is a monthly report, covering the major macroeconomic indicators and trends in Albania, as well as important political developments. Prepared by local analysts, it provides the most accurate data, updated regularly according to the data changes noted by the whole range of statistics sources. It will save the time you would need to track the figures and sources independently and will provide you with thorough analysis.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has kept its 2012 economic growth outlook for Albania at 1.2% but lowered the estimate for next year to 1.4% from previously expected rise of 1.8%. The report was published after Albania’s statistics office announced GDP data for the first quarter of 2012, showing a 0.2% y/y contraction, the first in more than two years.

Albania’s annual consumer prices inflation accelerated for the fifth month in a row to 2.7% in July but the growth was slower than the 3.6% y/y rate recorded in the same month of 2011. Food prices were again the main growth driver.

Domestic demand was weak in the first quarter of 2012 with retail sales falling by 8.3% y/y, following a marginal annual increase in the previous three months.

Industrial sales also declined in Q1 but at the faster rate of 11.2% y/y, which was the first annual drop in the segment in the past four years. The dynamics of the turnover in manufacturing industry followed broadly the same pattern as it shrank by 24.1% y/y in Q1.

Higher revenue and lower costs helped the government narrow the general budget deficit by 37.6% on the year of ALL 16.8bn (EUR 122mn) in H1 2012. The gap accounted for 1.2% of the projected full-year GDP, down from 2.1% of GDP for the same period a year earlier.