Intellinews Albania Country Report - January 2012


February 20, 2012
10 Pages - SKU: ISI6823659
License type:
Countries covered: Albania

The IntelliNews Albania Country Report is a monthly report, covering the major macroeconomic indicators and trends in Albania, as well as important political developments. Prepared by local analysts, it provides the most accurate data, updated regularly according to the data changes noted by the whole range of statistics sources. It will save the time you would need to track the figures and sources independently and will provide you with thorough analysis.


Additional Information

The IntelliNews Albania Country Report is a monthly report, covering the major macroeconomic indicators and trends in Albania, as well as important political developments. Prepared by local analysts, it provides the most accurate data, updated regularly according to the data changes noted by the whole range of statistics sources. It will save the time you would need to track the figures and sources independently and will provide you with thorough analysis.

The World Bank, the EBRD and Austria’s Raiffeisen announced their forecasts for Albania’s 2012 GDP growth in the last month. The World Bank maintained its GDP growth forecast for Albania for this year at 2%,the EBRD revised upwards its estimate to 1.2% from 1%, while Raiffeisen cut its outlook to 2.5% from 3%. The Albanian government also released its growth forecast putting this year’s real GDP growth at 4.3%.

Consumer price inflation in the country eased for the third straight month in January 2012 as prices increased by 1.6% y/y, slower than December’s rise of 1.7%. Food prices remained the main growth driver.

The retail sales index decreased by 5.6% in the third quarter of 2011. The index dropped for a third consecutive quarter after registering a 2.1% y/y fall in Q1 and a 6.9% y/y fall in Q2 2011

Albania’s unemployment rate remained flat on the quarter at 13.3% in Q3 2011. The number of unemployed Albanians edged down by 0.8% y/y to 142,082, while the country’s labour force rose by 1.2% to 1.072mn, helped by increased hiring at private companies.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
REAL SECTOR
1. GDP
World Bank keeps Albania’s 2012 GDP forecast at 2%.
Raiffeisen cuts Albania’s 2012 GDP forecast to 2.5%.
EBRD improves Albania’s 2012 GDP growth forecast to 1.2%.
Albania’s government confirms its 2012 GDP forecast of 4.3%
Albania’s economic sentiment deteriorates in Q4 2011
2. Inflation
Albania’s January CPI slows down to 1.6%
3. Industry and Trade
Albania’s industrial sales grow 11.5% y/y in Q3 2011.
Albania’s retail sales fall 5.6% y/y in Q3 2011.
4. Labour Market
Albania’s Q3 unemployment remains flat q/q at 13.3%.
FISCAL SECTOR
Albania public debt at 58.9% of GDP at end-2011 - finance minister.
Albania’s consolidated budget deficit rises to 3.4% of GDP in 2011.
FINANCIAL SECTOR
Albania’s insurance market grows by 2.3% y/y in 2011.
Albanian banks tighten lending rules for businesses in Q4 2011.
EXTERNAL SECTOR
Albania’s foreign trade gap widens to 26.1% of GDP in 2011.
Tables
Table 1 Raiffeisen Bank projections for 2012 (%)
Table 2 Confidence indicators by sectors
Table 3 Consumer prices, % y/y
Table 4 Labour force survey
Table 5 Insurance premiums, 2011, ALL ‘000
Table 6 Foreign trade in 2011, ALL mn
Figure 1 Consumer Price Index
Figure 2 Industrial sales % y/y
Figure 3 Retail trade, volume index
Figure 4 Foreign trade

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