IntelliNews Romania Country Report - September 2011

Countries covered: Romania The IntelliNews Romania Country Report is a monthly report, covering the major macroeconomic indicators and trends in Romania, as well as important political developments. Prepared by local analysts, it provides the most accurate data, updated regularly according to the data changes noted by the whole range of statistics sources. It will save the time you would need to track the figures and sources independently and will provide you with thorough analysis.

Additional Information

IMF to discuss causes of sluggish public sector reforms in Romania during Oct 25- Nov 7 expert team visit; the Fund warns against political pressure on structural reforms;

EU justice, home affairs ministers postpone Schengen enlargement talks;

EBRD cuts projection for Romania’s 2012 GDP growth by 2.7pps to 1.1%; the Bank invokes weaker demand from EU countries and exposure to Greek contagion risks; IMF will adjust downward its projection for Romania's GDP growth next year to 2% from 3.5%;

Real sector’s short-term indicators improve in August: exports increased by 24% y/y to EUR 3.46bn in August after a more moderate 11-12% y/y performance in Jun-Jul; industrial production index surged consequently by 10.3% y/y in August, returning to double-digit growth rates after five months of weaker performances; construction works index increased by 6.3% y/y in August after a revised 16% y/y in July, setting grounds for the first quarter in the positive y/y growth area after Q1 2009;

Romania's corporate, mortgage lending gain ground in end-Aug; NPL ratio as calculated by Romania's central bank increased to 13.6% at the end of July, up from 13.35% one month earlier and 10.81% one year earlier; provision cost over the past 12 months ending in July was RON 6.6bn, or 3.2% of the average stock of loans; the stock of overdue payments on bank loans increased by 41.7% y/y to EUR 4.78bn at the end of August, accounting for 9.3% of the total stock of bank loans;

Romania’s headline inflation moderates to 3.45% y/y in Sep 2011; average prices in the past 12 months increased by 6.9% y/y, compared to 7.3% y/y calculated one month earlier;

Romanian PM Boc confirms 2012 budget deficit target at below 3%-of-GDP; nonetheless, the budget planning is subject to high risks related to the expected 2012 GDP growth;

Romania’s CA gap narrows by 20% y/y in Jan-Aug 2011; for the past 12 months ending in August, we have calculated a CA gap of EUR 4.16bn, or 3.2% of the GDP projected for the full year; on the downside, the non-residents' direct investment in Romania narrowed by 52% y/y to only EUR 1.13bn in Jan- Aug.

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