IntelliNews - Bulgaria Country Report - May 2012

Additional Information

Bulgaria’s GDP (in seasonally and working-day adjusted terms) expanded by real 0.5% y/y in Q1 2012, but remained flat against the previous quarter.

Newly announced forecasts of the country’s economic growth this year include the ones by the European Commission (0.5%, down from 2.3% in the autumn report), the EBRD (1.2%, unchanged), and the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (1.3%).

The economic data released over the past month have been mixed. On the one hand, March industrial production and retail sales data showed another month of negative y/y growth; and the consumer confidence indicator deteriorated by 0.2pps q/q to -45.8 in April. On the other hand, in March construction output expanded y/y, and exports posted its first annual increase this year. In addition, in May the composite business sentiment indicator reached its highest value since November 2008.

The consolidated budget deficit shrank by 60% on the year to BGN 217mn (EUR 111mn) in Jan-Apr. The country has selected BNP Paribas, HSBC and Raiffeisen as leading managers for the planned Eurobond issue, Capital daily reported. The CA posted a deficit of EUR 345.6mn in Q1, compared to a deficit of EUR 87.6mn a year earlier. Net FDI flows in Bulgaria saw a significant rebound, rising to EUR 216.1mn in Q1, compared to an outflow of EUR 86.2mn a year earlier.