EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 5 REAL SECTOR 6 1.GDP 6 Bosnia’s GDP rises 3% in 2015, government says 6 EBRD affirms Bosnia’s 2016 GDP growth forecast at 3.0% 6 2. Inflation 6 Bosnia’s industrial producer price deflation slows further in April 6 Bosnia’s CPI deflation slightly cools in April 7 Bosnian Federation's industrial PPI declines by 2.2% y/y in April 7 Bosnian Federation's CPI deflation eases to 1.6% y/y in April 8 CPI deflation in Bosnia’s Republika Srpska eases to 1.7% y/y in April 8 Industrial producer prices in Bosnia’s Republika Srpska stay flat y/y in April 8 3. Industry and Trade 9 Bosnia’s industrial production slows annual growth in April 9 Bosnian Federation’s retail sales swing to fall in April 9 Bosnian Federation’s industrial production slows growth in April 10 Retail sales slow annual growth in April in Bosnia’s Republika Srpska 10 Industrial production in Bosnia’s Republika Srpska slows y/y growth in April 11 4. Tourism 11 Foreign tourist arrivals in Bosnia rise 12.8% y/y in Q1 11 5. Labour Market 12 Bosnia’s registered unemployment rate falls to 42.4% in March 12 Decline in number of unemployed in Bosnia accelerates further in March, stats office says 12 Bosnia’s average net wage rises 1.2% y/y in March 12 Bosnian Federation real net wage rises 3.2% y/y in March 13 Real wage grows 1.3% y/y in April in Bosnia’s Republika Srpska 13 FISCAL SECTOR, MONETARY POLICY 14 Bosnia’s 5-mo indirect tax revenue rises 2.8% y/y to €1.3bn 14 Bosnia’s indirect tax revenue rises 3.1% y/y to €1.2bn through April 14 Bosnian Federation sells out €20.5mn 5-year T-bond issue 15 Bosnian Federation’s 4-mo public revenues rise 10.3% y/y 15 Bosnian Federation sells out €10.2mn 6-month T-bills issue, yields fall 15 Bosnia’s Republika Srpska 5-mo public revenues fall 2.0% y/y 16 Bosnia’s Republika Srpska raises €30mn from 10-year T-bonds 16 Bosnia’s Republika Srpska raises €8.7mn from 10-year T-bonds 17 Bosnia’s Republika Srpska sells €20mn in 5-year T-bonds 17 FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION 17 Share of non-performing loans in Bosnia falls to 13.7% in Q4 17 EXTERNAL SECTOR 18 Bosnia’s 4-mo foreign trade deficit narrows 1.9% y/y 18 Bosnia’s net FDI sinks 34.8% in 2015 18 Bosnia’s foreign debt grows 2.9% y/y to €4.5bn at end-2015 19 Bosnia’s current account gap contracts 22% y/y to €812mn in 2015 19 Bosnian Federation’s 4-mo foreign trade gap up 2.2% y/y to €710mn 19 Foreign trade deficit in Bosnia’s Republika Srpska narrows 15.9% y/y through April 20 STRUCTURAL REFORMS, CORPORATE PLANS 20 EBU extends deadline for Bosnia’s public broadcaster to start paying €5.43mn debt 20 IMF to disburse first tranche of new loan to Bosnia in July 21 Bosnia’s public broadcaster to shut down on June 30 on unpaid debts 22 Bosnian Federation launches sale of stake in insurer Sarajevo Osiguranje 23 IMF, Bosnia agree new €550mn loan deal 24 Bosnia’s Republika Srpska to offer for sale stakes in 22 firms in 2016 25 Bosnia’s Republika Srpska to liquidate Banka Srpske 25 POLITICS 26 Bosnia’s Republika Srpska sues state indirect tax authority for €10.2mn 26 76% of Bosnians support EU membership, opinion poll says 27 Bosnia’s statistics office to announce 2013 census results in July 27 Opposition, ruling SNSD flex muscles in rival demonstrations in Bosnia’s Republika Srpska 28 Bosnia’s parliament approves new transport, deputy defence ministers 29
This report covers the main macroeconomic releases from May 6 until June 5, 2016 as well as the financial and political events that took place in Bosnia during this period.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on May 24 it has reached an agreement with Bosnia & Herzegovina on new 36-month deal, supported by a SDR443.04mn (about €550mn) Extended Fund Facility (EFF).
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) confirmed its 2016 economic growth projection for Bosnia & Herzegovina at 3.0%, slighty below the 3.2% recorded in 2015 in the May edition of its Regional Economic Prospects. The economy should benefit from expected signing of a new loan deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Bosnia & Herzegovina’s statistics office will announce the results of the 2013 census by the July 1 deadline as the state-level statistics office has approved a unified methodology, clearing the main hurdle for the much delayed publication of the results
A total of 76% of Bosnians support membership in the European Union, according to an opinion poll announced by Bosnia & Herzegovina’s government. Although this shows that the majority of citizens would like to see the country in the bloc, the percentage in favour fell slightly compared to a year ago, when 78% of all Bosnians supported membership.
The management of Bosnia & Herzegovina’s state-owned public broadcaster BHRT said on May 30 it will temporarily shut down all services on June 30 as it cannot collect BAM25mn (€12.8mn) debt from the broadcasters of Bosnia’s two entities, the Muslim-Croat Federation and Republika Srpska.
CPI deflation slightly eased to 1.6% y/y in April
The working-day adjusted industrial production increased 3.8% y/y in April
The foreign trade gap narrowed 1.9% y/y to BAM2.0bn (€1.0bn) in January-April