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| Countries covered: Poland Deficit of residential real estate. A severe deficit of residential real estate is nowadays one of key social problems in Poland. Around 38 million inhabitants or 14 million households live in ~12 million populated dwellings, meaning a deficit of ~1.5 - 2 million dwellings. The situation looks even worse, when taking into consideration, that existing infrastructure is on average old, partially devastated and in many cases lacking basic amenities: running water or canalization. In 2007 the supply of new dwellings slightly increased (134,000 completions), but it is still far from satisfying the gap. Demand for mortgage lending. In 2007 the demand for mortgage lending kept growing quickly. Private individuals took ~ PLN 54 bn in new mortgage loans, driving the total value of outstanding mortgage of households to PLN 117 bn (EUR ~32 bn). Sales of new loans were driven both: by increasing ticket size (+25% :CAGR 07/05) and increasing number of clients (+24% :CAGR 07/05). Supply of mortgage lending. The mortgage lending market is competitive, since almost all retail banks and increasing number of intermediaries are nowadays fighting for mortgage clients. Despite several seasonal promotions and special deals offered to new customers, the average lending margins remain relatively stable on a solid level of: 1.2-1.4%. At the same time the quality of loans is still very good with NPLs below 2% of total lending portfolio. Future opportunities. Increasing wealth of individuals (wages growth >10% yoy) and deficit of residential real estate are very likely to drive the demand for new mortgage lending in the future. The recent stabilization of real estate prices in top cities will make it difficult for banks to repeat the extreme growth rates of new mortgage recorded in 2007 and 2006. Moreover a regional shift in new lending demand structure towards smaller locations will require banks to adjust their distribution networks accordingly. Intelace Research expect that mortgage lending portfolios of banks will keep growing at ~xx% p.a. within next two years, rising to PLN yyy bn in nominal terms in 2009. |
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