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The Banking Market in Ukraine 2007 - CEE banking brief

Intelace Research
October 1, 2008
51 Pages - SKU: INTL1853705

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Countries covered: Ukraine

Macroeconomic situation. Since early 2006 the Ukrainian economy has been experiencing a robust growth with GDP rising quickly at 7% p.a. Factors like: massive foreign investments (9 bn US$ FDI in 2007), improved results of enterprises, low unemployment and rising wages have contributed to significant economic expansion. Only within last three years the country's GDP has doubled (in EUR terms), while the GDP per capita reached EUR2400 (as of 1H2008). Unfortunately also some unwanted side-effects of quick growth are increasingly apparent. The accelerating inflation (29% yoy in June 08) and mounting C/A imbalance negatively affect the economy and may pose a significant threat for future stability.

Banking sector. The latest development of banking sector reflects current condition of Ukraine`s economy. Banking assets more than doubled (in EUR terms) during last two years. Retail banking business expanded particularly fast, especially driven by mortgage and consumer lending. High and stable interest margins and increasing commissions, including bank cards fees contributed to significant growth of sector profit pool. In 2007 the combined net revenue of banks operating in Ukraine amounted to EUR 5.5 billion while the combined profit after tax approached EUR 1 billion. Unfortunately most banks are increasingly suffering from bad loans write-offs. The credit loss of all banks in 2007 exceeded EUR 1 bn and it is likely to increase in 2008.

Market structure. Ukrainian banking sector is still extremely fragmented. With 178 licensed banks in the country and very low concentration ratios (HHI* Index =332) the market is still awaiting a phase of consolidation. The recent entry of various foreign players (24 significant M&A transactions during 2006-2008) has not significantly changed the market structure so far. Among 12 major banks (ranked by assets) there are 6 controlled by foreign investors, 4 remain in hands of local individuals / corporates and only 2 are publicly owned.

Future prospects are good. In our base scenario we assume that the Ukrainian economy will sustain GDP growth accompanied by relatively high inflation, which will convert into a quite positive climate for the banking sector. We expect that the total banking assets will exceed UAH 1.3 trillion through 2010. In the mid term perspective retail banking is likely to be the key driver of growth with strong consumer lending and mortgage expansion. Interest margins are likely to inch higher, being supported by rising nominal interest rates due to inflation.

1. Macroeconomic overview: Slide 1: Executive summary; Slide 2: Ukraine - General overview; Slide 3: Key macroeconomic indicators, GDP, inflation, FX rates, 2002-2008H1; Slide 4: Foreign trade statistics, C/A balance, 2002-2008Q1; Slide 5: Unemployment rate, average salary, 2002-2008H1; Slide 6: Central bank rates, market interest rates, 2002-2008H1
2. Banking market: Slide 7: CEE banking markets + Ukraine: Size vs. growth matrix, 2005-2007; Slide 8: CEE banking penetration benchmarks - International comparison, 2007; Slide 9: Evolution of banking assets LCU vs. EUR, 2002-2008H1; Slide 10: Concentration of the banking market, 2008H1; Slide 11: Top 12 commercial banks, market shares, ownership, 2008H1; Slide 12: Client deposits by customer segment evolution, 2002-2008H1; Slide 13: Client loans by customer segment evolution, 2002-2008H1
3. Retail banking: Slide 14: Retail deposits by maturity and currency, 2002-2008H1; Slide 15: Retail loans evolution by type and currency, 2002-2008H1; Slide 16: Market shares of banks on the retail market, 2008H1; Slide 17: Top cards issuers, 2008H1; Slide 18: Banks shares in payment infrastructure: ATM, POS, Cash advance, 2008H1
4. Corporate banking: Slide 19: Corporate deposits by maturity and currency, 2002-2008H1; Slide 20: Corporate loans evolution by type and currency, 2002-2008H1; Slide 21: Market shares of banks on the corporate market, 2008H1
5. Banks profitability: Slide 22: Interest margins, 2002-2008H1; Slide 23: Commercial banks aggregated Profit & Loss composition, 2007; Slide 24: Commercial banks profitability tree: Privatbank, Aval, Ukrsibbank, Ukrsotsbank, Ukreximbank, 2007
6. Banks valuation and M&A activity: Slide 25: 2005-2007 banking M&A deals in Ukraine: P/A, P/BV, P/E multiples (1/4); Slide 26: 2005-2007 banking M&A deals in Ukraine: P/A, P/BV, P/E multiples (2/4); Slide 27: 2005-2007 banking M&A deals in Ukraine: P/A, P/BV, P/E multiples (3/4); Slide 28: 2005-2007 banking M&A deals in Ukraine: P/A, P/BV, P/E multiples (4/4); Slide 29: Average valuation ratios in 24 M&A transactions 2005/2007, Valuation of major banks
7. Top banks profiles: Slide 30: Bank profile: Privatbank; Slide 31: Bank profile: Raiffeisen Bank Aval; Slide 32: Bank profile: Ukrsibbank; Slide 33: Bank profile: Ukrsotsbank; Slide 34: Bank profile: Ukreximbank
8. Mid-term forecasts: Slide 35: Banking assets forecast, 2008-2010; Slide 36: Key retail volumes (deposits & loans in LCU) forecast, 2008-2010; Slide 37: Key corporate volumes (deposits & loans in LCU) forecast, 2008-2010
9. Note on methodology

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The Banking Market in Ukraine 2007 - CEE banking brief

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