Banking Market In Poland 2010-2012, CEE Banking Series
Intelace Research
May 1, 2010 124 Pages - SKU: INTL2664054
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Countries covered: Poland
The year 2009 was challenging not only for banks in Poland but also for the entire financial services industry in the country. Unprecedented currency volatility, a growing number of nonperforming assets and slower growth rates of client volumes (loans and deposits) were key problems that banks had to face during the past year. Nevertheless, despite the global crisis, the overall performance of the sector was surprisingly strong. Banks operating in Poland recorded a combined ~50 billion PLN in total revenue and almost 9 billion PLN in net profit, a year-over-year change of +2% and -36% respectively.
In 2009, unlike previous years, most banks stopped network expansion and started reviewing the performance of their existing branches, closing their least-effective outlets and adjusting employment levels.
The deepening crisis initiated long-expected M&A activity. Banks such as AIG, GMAC and WestLB changed hands, while Noble and Getin Bank, Fortis, Dominet, BPH and GE all consolidated their activities to reduce costs and improve performance. Some upcoming mergers might be even more exciting. In early 2010, the troubled Irish AIB announced sale of its Polish subsidiary, Bank Zachodni WBK, the #5 bank in Poland in terms of assets. There are at least a dozen bidders considering an investment, according to the press.
FUTURE OUTLOOK
The near-term outlook for the banking sector remains very challenging. Stagnating volumes and low flow of new customers will force banks to battle aggressively for their competitors’ clients. Banks are likely to shift resources to upgrade remote channels and services to reduce operating costs in the future. These cost benefits will be passed on to customers in the form of lower fees and more-attractive service conditions. Offering more value will inevitably become the chief tactic banks utilize to attract new clients and retain existing ones in the coming years.
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1: Executive summary
- 1. Macroeconomic overview
- Slide 2: Poland - General overview
- Slide 3: Key macroeconomic indicators, 2003-2009
- Slide 4: Foreign trade statistics, C/A balance, FDIs, 2003-2009
- Slide 5: Unemployment and wages, 2003-2009
- Slide 6: Disposable income in households and income distribution, 2003-2008
- Slide 7: Consumer confidence Index evolution, 2007-8/2009
- Slide 8: Warsaw Stock Exchange - Turnover, Market cap and indexes, 2004-2009
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- 2. Banking market
- 2.1. Banking market - General trends
- Slide 9: CEE banking markets: Size vs. growth matrix, 2007-2009
- Slide 10: CEE banking penetration benchmarks - International comparison, 2009
- Slide 11: Structure of the Polish Banking System, 2009
- Slide 12: Polish Banking System ERA analysis, 1989-2010
- Slide 13: Evolution of banking assets by ownership, 1993-2009
- Slide 14: Top 12 foreign investors on the Polish banking market, 2009
- Slide 15: Banking assets evolution (LCU, EUR), 2003-2009
- Slide 16: Banking assets evolution (in EUR) by group of banks, 2003-2009
- Slide 17: Top 12 commercial banks, market shares, ownership, 2009
- Slide 18: Concentration of the banking market (Assets, Branches, ATMs, HH Index), 2008/2009
- Slide 19: Deposits by customer segment evolution, 2004-2009
- Slide 20: Loans by customer segment evolution, 2004-2009
- Slide 21: Foreign funding evolution, 2004-2009
- Slide 22: Non-performing loans value evolution and NPL ratios by type of customer, 2008-2010
- Slide 23: Non-performing retail loans , ratios by type of customer, 2005-2009
- 2.2. Banking market - Regulatory overview
- Slide 24: Regulatory overview: Regulatory bodies on the Polish banking market
- Slide 25: BFG - Deposit Insurance Fund
- Slide 26: BIK - Credit information Office
- Slide 27: BIG - Regulated commercial information providers
- Slide 28: Central Bank interest rates and mandatory reserve policy, 2002-2009
- Slide 29: Inter-bank yield curves, 2004-2010 (WIBOR 3M, Polonia O/N)
- Slide 30: Basel II/CRD implementation status
- Slide 31: Loans and FX-denominated mortgage - regulatory changes
2.3. Banking market - Banking Infrastructure
- Slide 32: Bank outlets by types of banks, 2004-3Q2009
- Slide 33: Employment in commercial banks sector, bank assets per employee evolution, 2004-2009
- Slide 34: Direct employee costs evolution, 2005-2009
- Slide 35: ATM number and transaction value evolution 2004-2009, ATM players, 2008
- Slide 36: POS number and transaction value evolution 2004-2009, POS players, 2009
- 3. Retail banking
- Slide 37: Current account penetration in Poland vs. EU, EUROBAROMETER 2008/2009
- Slide 38: Loans penetration in Poland vs. EU, EUROBAROMETER 2008/2009
- Slide 39: Access to banking services in Poland, 2008
- Slide 40: Demographic trends determining future number of bank clients, 2007-2020
- Slide 41: Demographic and social trends influencing future number of bank accounts, 2010
- Slide 42: Retail banking clients by segment - pyramid (mass, affluent, personal and private banking), 2009
- Slide 43: Households deposits by sub-segments , 2004-2009
- Slide 44: Cash in circulation, cash vs. deposits ratio, 2004-2009
- Slide 45: Household loans by sub-segments evolution, 2004-2009
- Slide 46: TOP banks serving households sector, market shares, 2009
- Slide 47: Deposits of private individuals, structure by currency, 2004-2009
- Slide 48: Deposits of private individuals, structure by maturity, 2004-2009
- Slide 49: Current accounts of individuals at major banks, 2005-2009
- Slide 50: Internet and PC penetration in Polish households and in corporate sector, shopping online, 2008
- Slide 51: Number of accounts with online access and number of online accounts actively used
- Slide 52: Online Banking - mBank case
- Slide 53: Online Banking - new entrants: ING and Citibank and perspectives for standalone internet projects
- Slide 54: Bill payments market structure, 2009
- Slide 55: Investment funds assets evolution, domestic and foreign funds, 2004-2009
- Slide 56: Investment funds - top 10 players, 2009
- Slide 57: Personal Financial Assets (PFA) structure and evolution, 2006-2009
- Slide 58: Loans to private individuals by type evolution, 2004-2009
- Slide 59: Mortgage to private individuals by currency evolution, 2004-2009
- Slide 60: Mortgage to private individuals - new sales, outstanding contracts, 2005-2009
- Slide 61: Installment loans market, 2005-2009
- Slide 61: Car loans market, 2005-2009
- Slide 63: Specialized/exclusive loan distribution networks - recent trends, 2007-2009
- Slide 64: Value and number of loans and investment products sold by major intermediaries, 2008
- Slide 65: Perspectives for financial intermediaries
- 3.1. Payment cards
- Slide 66: Cards issued by card type, 2004-2009
- Slide 67: Card transactions by channel, share of cash transactions, 2004-2009
- Slide 68: Credit card transactions , values, volumes, per card evolution, 2004-2009
- Slide 69: Top players in credit cards business, co-branding partners, 2009
- 4. Corporate banking
- Slide 70: Corporate subjects by size, number, employment, revenues and profits, 2008
- Slide 71: Corporate subjects, regional distribution, 2008
- Slide 72: Corporate subjects, revenue and profit evolution, 2006-2009
- Slide 73: Corporate deposits and loans evolution, 2004-2009
- Slide 74: Top players on the corporate banking market, 2009
- Slide 75: Brokerage business, top players, 2004-2009
- Slide 76: Leasing market, structure by industry, top players, 2004-2009
- Slide 77: Factoring market, 2004-2009
- Slide 78: Non-treasury debt securities market, 2007-2009
- 5. Banks' profitability
- Slide 79: Average retail and corporate banking rates offered and implied margins evolution, 2006-2010
- Slide 80: Commercial banks - profitability tree - market averages evolution, 2006-2009
- Slide 81: Commercial banks - revenue, costs and profits composition, 2009
- Slide 82: Top 5 commercial banks profitability tree - peers comparison, 2009
- Slide 83: Segment reporting (1/2): volumes, revenues and profit by segment (retail, corporate, other), 2009
- Slide 84: Segment reporting (2/2): volumes, revenues and profit by segment (retail, corporate, other), 2009
- 6. Banks' valuation and M&A activity
- Slide 85: Strategic control map for major listed banks in Poland, 3/2010
- Slide 86: Market multiples for major listed banks in Poland, 3/2010
- Slide 87: Efficiency of top banks in Poland - Cost to income, Assets/Personnel/Branches benchmarks, 2009
- Slide 88: Share price performance on the stock market for key listed banks in Poland, 2009/03.2010
- Slide 89: Acquisition transactions on the Polish banking market (1/2), 2005-2008
- Slide 90: Acquisition transactions on the Polish banking market (2/2), 2009-2010
- Slide 91: Mergers on the Polish banking market, 2009/2010
- 7. Top 5 banks - Profiles
- Slide 92-93: Bank profiles: PKO Bank Polski
- Slide 94-95: Bank profiles: Bank Pekao
- Slide 96-97: Bank profiles: BRE Bank
- Slide 98-99 Bank profiles: ING Bank Œl¹ski
- Slide 100-101: Bank profiles: BZ WBK
- 8. Mid-term forecasts
- Slide 102: Banking assets forecast, 2009-2011
- Slide 103: Key retail volumes forecast, 2009-2011
- Slide 104: Key corporate volumes forecast, 2009-2011
- 9. Note on methodology
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