The 2009 Vanuatu Economic and Product Market Databook

Icon Group International, Inc.
March 3, 2009
597 Pages - SKU: ICN2158223
Countries covered: Vanuatu

In performing various economic analyses for its clients, I have occasionally been asked to investigate the market potential for various products and services in Vanuatu. The purpose of the studies is to understand the density of demand within Vanuatu and the extent to which Vanuatu might be used as a point of distribution within Oceana. From an economic perspective, however, Vanuatu does not represent a population within rigid geographical boundaries, rather, it represents an area of dominant influence over markets in adjacent areas. This influence varies from one industry to another, but also from one period of time to another.

In what follows, I summarize the economic potential for Vanuatu over the next five years for hundreds of industries, categories and products. The goal of this report is to report my findings on the real economic potential, or what an economist calls the latent demand, represented by Vanuatu when defined as an area of dominant influence. The reader needs to realize that latent demand may or may not represent real sales. For many items, latent demand is clearly observable in sales, as in the case for food or housing items. Consider, however, the category "satellite launch vehicles". Clearly, there are no launch pads in Vanuatu used by the space industry to launch satellites. However, the core benefit of the vehicles (e.g. telecommunications, etc.) is "consumed" by the area served by Vanuatu. Without Vanuatu, in other words, the market for satellite launch vehicles would be lower for the population in Vanuatu, Oceana, or the world in general. One needs to allocate, therefore, a portion of the worldwide economic demand for launch vehicles to both Oceana and Vanuatu.


Additional Information

This study covers the outlook products in Vanuatu. For the year reported, estimates are given for the latent demand, or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.), for the Vanuatu (in millions of U.S. dollars). Comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge Vanuatu vis-à-vis regional and global totals. Using econometric models which project fundamental economic dynamics within each country and across countries, latent demand estimates are created. This report does not discuss the specific players in the market serving the latent demand, nor specific details at the product level. The study also does not consider short-term cyclicalities that might affect realized sales. The study, therefore, is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved.

This study does not report actual sales data, but gives, however, my estimates for the latent demand for products and services in Vanuatu. For each category, I also show my estimates of how the P.I.E. grows over time (positive or negative growth). In order to make these estimates, a multi-stage methodology was employed that is often taught in courses on international strategic planning at graduate schools of business. The data presented are the result of various spatial econometric and time-series forecasting models which, for each category presented, are applied to forecast and allocate latent demand across all countries of the world and major distribution centers or centers of dominant influence within each country. This is accomplished knowing that economic fundamentals (e.g. income) generally vary from one country to another within a given country over time. In this report, I report the allocation for each category for Vanuatu as an area of dominant influence in Oceana and, potentially, the world.

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