The 2009-2014 Outlook for Gourmet Chocolate in Japan

This econometric study covers the latent demand outlook for gourmet chocolate across the prefectures and cities of Japan. Latent demand (in millions of U.S. dollars), or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.) estimates are given across some 1,000 cities in Japan. For each city in question, the percent share the city is of it’s prefecture and of Japan is reported. These comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge a city vis-à-vis others. This statistical approach can prove very useful to distribution and/or sales force strategies. Using econometric models which project fundamental economic dynamics within each prefecture and city, latent demand estimates are created for gourmet chocolate. This report does not discuss the specific players in the market serving the latent demand, nor specific details at the product level. The study also does not consider short-term cyclicalities that might affect realized sales. The study, therefore, is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved.

This study does not report actual sales data (which are simply unavailable, in a comparable or consistent manner in virtually all of the cities in Japan). This study gives, however, my estimates for the latent demand, or the P.I.E., for gourmet chocolate in Japan. It also shows how the P.I.E. is divided and concentrated across the cities and regional markets of Japan. For each prefecture, I also show my estimates of how the P.I.E. grows over time. In order to make these estimates, a multi-stage methodology was employed that is often taught in courses on strategic planning at graduate schools of business.