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The 2009-2014 Outlook for Biologics in Greater China

Icon Group International, Inc.
December 2, 2008
141 Pages - SKU: ICN2096325

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Countries covered: China

This econometric study covers the latent demand outlook for biologics across the regions of Greater China, including provinces, autonomous regions (Guangxi, Nei Mongol, Ningxia, Xinjiang, Xizang - Tibet), municipalities (Beijing, Chongqing, Shanghai, and Tianjin), special administrative regions (Hong Kong and Macau), and Taiwan (all hereafter referred to as “regions”). Latent demand (in millions of U.S. dollars), or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.) estimates are given across some 1,100 cities in Greater China. For each major city in question, the percent share the city is of the region and of Greater China is reported. Each major city is defined as an area of “economic population”, as opposed to the demographic population within a legal geographic boundary. For many cities, the economic population is much larger that the population within the city limits; this is especially true for the cities of the Western regions. For the coastal regions, cities which are close to other major cities or which represent, by themselves, a high percent of the regional population, actual city-level population is closer to the economic population (e.g. in Beijing). Based on this “economic” definition of population, comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge a city’s marketing and distribution value vis-à-vis others. This exercise is quite useful for persons setting up distribution centers or sales force strategies. Using econometric models which project fundamental economic dynamics within each region and city of influence, latent demand estimates are created for biologics. This report does not discuss the specific players in the market serving the latent demand, nor specific details at the product level. The study also does not consider short-term cyclicalities that might affect realized sales. The study, therefore, is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved.

This study does not report actual sales data (which are simply unavailable, in a comparable or consistent manner in virtually all of the cities in Greater China). This study gives, however, my estimates for the latent demand, or the P.I.E., for biologics in Greater China. It also shows how the P.I.E. is divided and concentrated across the cities and regional markets of Greater China. For each region, I also show my estimates of how the P.I.E. grows over time. In order to make these estimates, a multi-stage methodology was employed that is often taught in courses on international strategic planning at graduate schools of business.

1 INTRODUCTION: 1.1 Overview; 1.2 What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.?; 1.3 The Methodology
2 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS: 2.1 The Latent Demand in Greater China; 2.2 Top 100 Cities Sorted By Rank
3 ANHUI: 3.1 Latent Demand by Year - Anhui; 3.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Anhui; 3.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Anhui
4 BEIJING: 4.1 Latent Demand by Year - Beijing; 4.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Beijing; 4.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Beijing
5 CHONGQING: 5.1 Latent Demand by Year - Chongqing; 5.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Chongqing; 5.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Chongqing
6 FUJIAN: 6.1 Latent Demand by Year - Fujian; 6.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Fujian; 6.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Fujian
7 GANSU: 7.1 Latent Demand by Year - Gansu; 7.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Gansu; 7.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Gansu
8 GUANGDONG: 8.1 Latent Demand by Year - Guangdong; 8.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Guangdong; 8.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Guangdong
9 GUANGXI: 9.1 Latent Demand by Year - Guangxi; 9.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Guangxi; 9.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Guangxi
10 GUIZHOU: 10.1 Latent Demand by Year - Guizhou; 10.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Guizhou; 10.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Guizhou
11 HAINAN: 11.1 Latent Demand by Year - Hainan; 11.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Hainan; 11.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Hainan
12 HEBEI: 12.1 Latent Demand by Year - Hebei; 12.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Hebei; 12.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Hebei
13 HEILONGJIANG: 13.1 Latent Demand by Year - Heilongjiang; 13.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Heilongjiang; 13.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Heilongjiang
14 HENAN: 14.1 Latent Demand by Year - Henan; 14.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Henan; 14.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Henan
15 HONG KONG: 15.1 Latent Demand by Year - Hong Kong; 15.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Hong Kong; 15.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Hong Kong
16 HUBEI: 16.1 Latent Demand by Year - Hubei; 16.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Hubei; 16.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Hubei
17 HUNAN: 17.1 Latent Demand by Year - Hunan; 17.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Hunan; 17.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Hunan
18 JIANGSU: 18.1 Latent Demand by Year - Jiangsu; 18.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Jiangsu; 18.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Jiangsu
19 JIANGXI: 19.1 Latent Demand by Year - Jiangxi; 19.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Jiangxi; 19.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Jiangxi
20 JILIN: 20.1 Latent Demand by Year - Jilin; 20.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Jilin; 20.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Jilin
21 LIAONING: 21.1 Latent Demand by Year - Liaoning; 21.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Liaoning; 21.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Liaoning
22 MACAU: 22.1 Latent Demand by Year - Macau; 22.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Macau; 22.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Macau
23 NEI MONGGOL: 23.1 Latent Demand by Year - Nei Monggol; 23.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Nei Monggol; 23.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Nei Monggol
24 NINGXIA: 24.1 Latent Demand by Year - Ningxia; 24.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Ningxia; 24.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Ningxia
25 QINGHAI: 25.1 Latent Demand by Year - Qinghai; 25.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Qinghai; 25.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Qinghai
26 SHAANXI: 26.1 Latent Demand by Year - Shaanxi; 26.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Shaanxi; 26.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Shaanxi
27 SHANDONG: 27.1 Latent Demand by Year - Shandong; 27.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Shandong; 27.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Shandong
28 SHANGHAI: 28.1 Latent Demand by Year - Shanghai; 28.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Shanghai; 28.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Shanghai
29 SHANXI: 29.1 Latent Demand by Year - Shanxi; 29.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Shanxi; 29.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Shanxi
30 SICHUAN: 30.1 Latent Demand by Year - Sichuan; 30.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Sichuan; 30.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Sichuan
31 TAIWAN: 31.1 Latent Demand by Year - Taiwan; 31.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Taiwan; 31.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Taiwan
32 TIANJIN: 32.1 Latent Demand by Year - Tianjin; 32.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Tianjin; 32.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Tianjin
33 XINJIANG UYGUR: 33.1 Latent Demand by Year - Xinjiang Uygur; 33.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Xinjiang Uygur; 33.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Xinjiang Uygur
34 XIZANG [THIBET]: 34.1 Latent Demand by Year - Xizang [Thibet]; 34.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Xizang [Thibet]; 34.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Xizang [Thibet]
35 YUNNAN: 35.1 Latent Demand by Year - Yunnan; 35.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Yunnan; 35.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Yunnan
36 ZHEJIANG: 36.1 Latent Demand by Year - Zhejiang; 36.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Zhejiang; 36.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Zhejiang
37 DISCLAIMERS, WARRANTEES, AND USER AGREEMENT PROVISIONS: 37.1 Disclaimers & Safe Harbor; 37.2 ICON Group International, Inc. User Agreement Provisions

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The 2009-2014 Outlook for Biologics in Greater China

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