Worldwide Smartphone Forecast Update, 2016–2020: September 2016
This IDC study presents the updated five-year forecast for smartphone shipments worldwide by device vendors. The worldwide smartphone market will reach a total of 1.46 billion units shipped in 2016, up 1.6% from the 1.44 billion units shipped in 2015. From there, shipments will reach 1.76 billion units in 2020, the final year of our forecast period, resulting in a CAGR of 4.1%."The first half of 2016 has brought minimal growth compared with 1H15 because of a sharp decline in volume from iOS, Windows Phone, and BlackBerry," says Anthony Scarsella, research manager for IDC's Mobile Phones team. "Despite flat shipment in 1H16, we expect 2H16 to bring 3.1% growth, thanks to an increase of Android devices as well as Apple's next flagship devices. In 2017 and 2018, the market will recover nicely with 4.6% and 5.7% growth, respectively. Contributing to this increase will be a combination of both affordable and flagship Android devices geared toward both emerging and developed markets, as well as new iOS devices that will capture new users in growing markets and drive replacement rates forward in mature markets like the United States, China, and Western Europe."