Canadian Wireless Services 2012–2016 Forecast and Analysis: Wireless Wars 9


January 9, 2013
101 Pages - SKU: IDC4940490
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Countries covered: Canada

This IDC study, based on IDC Canada's fall Telecom Market Model update, presents our detailed five-year forecast for the burgeoning wireless services sector.

"Our forecast shows that wireless, particularly wireless data, remains the sector's growth engine," says coauthor Lawrence Surtees, vice president and principal analyst in the Communications Practice at IDC Canada Ltd. The wireless sector, estimated to have revenue of C$18.5 billion in 2012, will grow at a five-year compound annual growth rate of 6.5 per cent. The wireless sector will have revenue of C$24.2 billion in 2016 — accounting for one-half of the entire telecom sector.

This study also provides our first breakdown of the wireless data segment by device form factor based on actual installed base and device shipments from IDC Canada's Mobile Device Tracker.


IDC Opinion
In This Study
Methodology
New Wireless Data Forecast Model
Situation Overview
Wireless Penetration
2011 in Review
Subscriber Share
Pricing and Discount Services
ARPU Pressure Easing
Wireless Providers
Rogers Wireless
Rogers Wireless' Network
Rogers' chatr wireless
Bell Mobility
Bell Mobility's Networks
Northwestel Wireless Modernization
Telus Mobility
Telus Mobility Networks
MTS Mobility
SaskTel Mobility
Tbaytel Mobility
Wind Mobile (Globalive)
Vidéotron Wireless
Vidéotron's Network
Shaw Wireless
Mobilicity
Mobilicity Network
Public Mobile
EastLink
Ice Wireless
Spectrum Auction for Newcomers
Public Safety Land Mobile Radio Interoperability
Toward "HetNets," Femtocells, and MIMOs
Wireless Market Drivers
Wireless Substitution
Wireless Internet Substitution Looms
Wireless Data Traffic Surpasses Voice
Smartphone Use Soars
"BYOD" Spurs Need for Device Management
Smartphone Subsidies
M2M
Wireless Market Inhibitors
Wireless Data Prices
Business Adoption Still Lags
Prospects of New Entrants Limited
Wireless Consumer Codes Gain Traction
Access Fees Class Action Suit
Health and Safety
Future Outlook
Forecast and Assumptions
Canadian Wireless Forecast
Assessing the Wireless Market Opportunity
Subscriber Forecast
Wireless Voice and Data Revenue Forecast
Wireless Data
ARPU Forecast
Business Versus Consumer Spending
Wireless Forecast by Business Size
Market Context
Five-Year Forecasts Comparison
Essential Guidance
Actions to Consider
Learn More
Related Research
Definitions
Methodology
Synopsis
Table: Canadian Wireless Services Capex Spending by Provider, 2001–2012 (C$M)
Table: Canadian Wireless Providers' 3.5G and 4G Vendors
Table: Rogers Wireless at a Glance, 2011
Table: Rogers Wireless Capex Spending by Project Type, 2010 and 2011 (C$M)
Table: Bell Mobility at a Glance, 2011
Table: Telus Mobility at a Glance, 2011
Table: Wireless Data and Entertainment Service Plans of Canadian Providers, 2012
Table: Top 3 Assumptions for the Canadian Wireless Services Market, 2012–2016
Table: Key Forecast Assumptions for the Canadian Wireless Services Market, 2012–2016
Table: Canadian Wireless Subscribers, Penetration, and Minutes of Use, 2011–2016
Table: Canadian Wireless Voice and Data Services Revenue, 2011–2016 (C$M)
Table: Canadian Wireless Services Revenue by Service Type, 2011–2016
Table: Canadian Wireless Data Services Revenue by Endpoint, 2011–2016 (C$M)
Table: Canadian Wireless Services Subscribers, Revenue, and ARPU, 2011–2016
Table: Canadian Wireless Services Revenue by Service Type and Subscriber Segment, 2011–2016 (C$M)
Table: Canadian Wireless Services Revenue, 2007–2016: Comparison of November 2011 and December 2012 Forecasts
Figure: Worldwide Fixed and Wireless Communications Penetration, 2001–2011 (% of Population)
Figure: Worldwide Mobile Penetration by Select Country, 2011 (% of Population)
Figure: Canadian Teledensity by Service Type, 1997–2011
Figure: Canadian Wireless Subscribers and Penetration, 1996–2011
Figure: Canadian Telecom Services Revenue Share by Service Type, 2011
Figure: Canadian Telecom Services Revenue by Service Type, 2003–2011
Figure: Canadian Retail Telecom Services Revenue Share by Service Type, 2011
Figure: Canadian Wireless Services Subscriber Share by Provider, 2011
Figure: Canadian Wireless Services Revenue as a Percentage of Total Revenue for the Top 3 Providers, 2011
Figure: Canadian Incumbent Wireless Subscribers for the Top 3 Carriers by Subscription Type, 2011
Figure: Canadian Wireless Services Blended Monthly ARPU by Select Provider, 1995–2011
Figure: Canadian Wireless Coverage for All Providers Combined, 2011–2012
Figure: Canadian Wireless 3G/4G Network Coverage and Deployments by Provider, 2011–2012
Figure: Canadian Wireless Services Capex Spending, 2001–2012
Figure: Canadian Wireless Services Revenue and Capex, 2000–2012
Figure: Rogers Wireless Network Coverage, 2012
Figure: Bell and Telus Joint Wireless HSPA+/LTE Network Evolution, 2007–2013
Figure: Bell Mobility 4G HSPA+ Network Coverage, 2012
Figure: Bell Mobility's Expansion in Manitoba, 2012
Figure: Telus Mobility Wireless Network Coverage, 2011–2012
Figure: MTS Mobility Network Coverage, 2011–2012
Figure: SaskTel Mobility Network Coverage, 2012
Figure: Tbaytel Mobility HSPA+ Network Coverage, 2012
Figure: Wind Mobile Network and Roaming Coverage, 2011
Figure: Vidéotron Wireless Network Coverage, Quebec and Ontario, 2012
Figure: Mobilicity Network and Roaming Coverage, 2011
Figure: Public Mobile Network Coverage in Toronto and Montreal, 2010 and 2011
Figure: Importance of 700MHz for Canadian Public Safety Advanced Wireless Data Applications
Figure: U.S. Households with Wireless-Only or No Telephone Service, 2003–2011
Figure: Canadian Firms with Employees Solely Reliant on Wireless for Voice by Organization Size, 2012
Figure: Canadian Consumer Annual SMS Text Message Volume, 2002–2011
Figure: Canadian Smartphone Device Shipment Share by Vendor, 2010 and 2011
Figure: Canadian Firms' BYOD Policies: Businesses Still in the Dark
Figure: Canadian Firms' Current and Planned Use of Managed Mobility Applications, 2012 and 2013
Figure: Canadian Smartphone Unlimited Talk/Text Price Plans, October–December 2012 (C$/Month)
Figure: Mobile Data Plan Revenue and Subscriber Share by Plan Capacity, 2011
Figure: Canadian Business Inhibitors to 3G/4G/LTE Tablets
Figure: Canadian Business Telecom Spending Share by Service Type, 2012
Figure: Canadian Business Telecom Spending Share by Market Segment and Company Size, 2012 (%)
Figure: Canadian Businesses' Adoption of Wireless Applications
Figure: Canadian Wireless and Wireline Services Revenue, 2010–2016
Figure: Assessment of the Canadian Telecom Services Opportunity by Service Type, 2011–2016
Figure: Canadian Wireless Subscribers and Penetration, 2011–2016 (M)
Figure: Canadian Wireline and Wireless Subscribers, 2003–2016 (M)
Figure: Canadian Wireless Voice and Data Services Revenue, 2011–2016
Figure: Canadian Wireless Services Monthly ARPU by Service Type, 2011–2016
Figure: Canadian Wireless Services Revenue by Customer Segment and Company Size, 2011–2016
Figure: Canadian Consumer Wireless Services Revenue by Service Type, 2011–2016
Figure: Canadian Wireless Services Revenue, 2007–2016: Comparison of November 2011 and December 2012 Forecasts
Figure: Canadian Wireless Services Revenue Growth, 2007–2016: Comparison of November 2011 and December 2012 Forecasts

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