The Future of Television - Report
IDATE
August 1, 2010 91 Pages - SKU: IDT6126172
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This report is a follow-up to
an earlier prospective study
produced in 2009 and to a
series of works on new
forms of television (Next
Gen TV, Video over FTTx,
3DTV, etc.), and provides
readers with a portrait of
the industry in 2020, along
with original analysis of
media companies'
responses to the current
changes in the marketplace
which will have a lasting
impact on their positions.
Key questions
- What TV viewing patterns will we see emerge over the
the long term?
- What impact will connected televisions have?
- Is the TV industry finally on the verge of a major consolidation?
- Can speciality channels hold up against competition
from long-tail services on the Web?
- Can TV broadcasters compete with Google, Apple and Sony?
Please note:The online download price is for 1-5 users.
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- 1. Executive Summary
- 1.1. The environment: a pervasive and globalized Internet
- 1.2. Evolution of viewing habits over the long term
- 1.2.1. Four socio-types and their typical services
- 1.2.2. The video market’s long-term structure
- 1.2.3. Forecasts for the video market in 2020
- 1.2.4. TV networks’ strategic paths
- 2. Methodology
- 2.1. IDATE market reports
- 2.2. "The future of television: strategies for 2020" - report methodology
- 3. Evolution of viewing habits and of the video industry over the long term
- 3.1. Long-term environment: a pervasive and globalized Internet
- 3.2. Evolution of viewing habits over the long term
- 3.2.1. Time devoted to video
- 3.2.2. Segmentation of usage
- 3.2.3. Time-shifted video viewing
- 3.2.4. Mobile viewing
- 3.2.5. Interaction with video
- 3.2.6. Willingness to pay
- 3.2.7. Role of social networking sites
- 3.2.8. Consumer experience
- 3.2.9. Summary of the development of consumption patterns
- 3.3. Services and market segments
- 3.3.1. Summary description of the four socio-types
- 3.3.2. Viewing habits for each socio-type
- 3.4. The video industry’s long-term development
- 3.4.1. Key industry features over the long term
- 3.4.2. Summary of the industry’s long-term evolution
- 4. Video market development forecasts
- 4.1. Key variables
- 4.1.1. Change in the time spent watching video content
- 4.1.2. Evolution of advertising rates and inventory
- 4.1.3. Evolution of distribution networks
- 4.1.4. Evolution of the pay-to-view market
- 4.2. Overall results of the modelling exercise
- 4.2.1. Evolution of the advertising market
- 4.2.2. Evolution of the pay-TV market
- 4.2.3. Evolution of the TV/video market as a whole
- 5. TV networks’ strategic paths
- 5.1. Change in geographical positioning
- 5.2. Change in product positioning
- 5.3. Change in positioning on the value chain
- 5.3.1. Description of the value chain in the medium term
- 5.3.2. TV networks’ positioning on the value chain
- 6. Detailed analysis
- 6.1. Key viewing trends
- 6.1.1. Growing competition between TV viewing time and time spent online
- 6.1.2. Increasing audience segmentation
- 6.1.3. Time-shifted viewing
- 6.1.4. More roaming than mobile viewing
- 6.1.5. Interaction with video content
- 6.1.6. Free vs. viewers’ willingness to pay
- 6.1.7. Emergence of “social video”
- 6.1.8. Segmenting by quality of service
- 6.2. Case studies: innovative strategies and services
- 6.2.1. National franchises in the US
- 6.2.2. International thematic channels
- 6.2.3. Canal+: exporting different levels of savoir-faire
- 6.2.4. SET: a global general entertainment channel franchise
- 6.2.5. Endemol: internationalized production
- 6.2.6. Bloomberg: a multi-platform strategy of thematic business / TV / radio / print / Internet services
- 6.2.7. Équipe: multi-platform niche strategy
- 6.2.8. Univision: targeted multi-platform strategy
- 6.2.9. M6: multi-themed multi-platform strategy
- 6.2.10. Major TV networks’ portals and efforts to integrate social networking
- 6.2.11. Hulu: recommendations and social network-agnostic
- 6.2.12. Live broadcasting: post-YouTube
- 6.2.13. LiveStation: aggregating news channel streams
- 6.3. Four ICT development scenarios
- 6.3.1. Key variables
- 6.3.2. Summary description of development scenarios
- 6.3.3. Key variables to future developments
- Tables
- Table 1 : TV channels' strategic paths
- Table 2: Video viewing patterns
- Table 3 : TV channels' strategic paths
- Table 4: Change in the number of national TV channels with a terrestrial broadcasting licence, in the top five European markets
- Table 5: Change in the number of other national TV channels (cable, satellite, IPTV, mobile) in the top five European markets
- Table 6: Change in the number of other local or regional TV channels in the top five European markets
- Table 7: Widgets on the Yahoo! Connected TV platform, by type of service
- Table 8: Survey of a sample of 1,600 users in the UK on the topic of piracy
- Table 9: Content sharing methods used by self-proclaimed file sharers in the Netherlands
- Table 10: Children’s channels with more than two versions, in the European Union and EU candidate countries
- Figures
- Figure 1: Total TV/video revenue in Europe’s five largest markets, 2010-2020
- Figure 2: Total TV/video market in the United States, 2010-2020
- Figure 3: Overall view of the four video consumption profiles
- Figure 4: Breakdown of time spent watching video content online in France, 2008-2020
- Figure 5: Comparative profitability of video adverts in the UK, by service, 2010-2020
- Figure 6: Wireline networks’ market share, by country, 2010-2020
- Figure 7: Pay-TV subscribers, by country, 2010-2020
- Figure 8: Pay-TV ARPU, by country, 2010-2020
- Figure 9: The TV/video advertising market in the top five European markets, 2010-2020
- Figure 10: The TV/video advertising market in the US, 2010-2020
- Figure 11: The pay-to-view TV/video market in the top five European markets, 2008-2020
- Figure 12: The pay-to-view TV/video market in the US, 2010-2020
- Figure 13: Total TV/video revenue in Europe’s five largest markets, 2010-2020
- Figure 14: Total TV/video market in the United States, 2010-2020
- Figure 15: Value chain over the long term
- Figure 16: Comparative change in individual TV viewing time in five European countries
- Figure 17: Evolution of the TV audience around the globe
- Figure 18: Global Internet average daily traffic
- Figure 19: Growth of the multi-channel TV penetration rate in Western Europe and in the US
- Figure 20: Change in the average annual audience share for public service channels and other channels in the UK
- Figure 21: Change in the average annual audience share for incumbent channels and newer channels in France
- Figure 22: DVR penetration among TV households in the UK, the US and France
- Figure 23: Growth in the number of TV requests on the BBC iPlayer service in 2009
- Figure 24: Growth of time-shifted viewing in the US, 2007-2009
- Figure 25: Growth of catch-up TV users in France
- Figure 26: Average mobile video or TV viewing frequency per month among mobile subscribers in the United States
- Figure 27: Maximum uninterrupted time spent watching a film on a mobile
- Figure 28: Maximum uninterrupted time spent watching a TV show on a mobile
- Figure 29: Most common occasions for mobile video viewing among mobile customers in the US, in Q3 2008
- Figure 30: Cross-media ecosystem of American Idol, broadcast on Fox
- Figure 31: Change in pay-per-view VoD penetration
- Figure 32: Growth of the number of unique monthly visitors from the US on Facebook, MySpace and Twitter
- Figure 33: The most widely used means for sharing videos online in the US
- Figure 34: SDTV, HDTV, 2K (cinema) formats
- Figure 35: Creating a profile on the German site for channel RTL
- Figure 36: The NBC Communicator service
- Figure 37: Das Match programme page on ORF Insider
- Figure 38: Integration of Facebook status updates on CNN.com
- Figure 39: Integration of Facebook status updates on TF1.fr
- Figure 40: The Fox network’s TV broadcast of Fringe in partnership with Twitter
- Figure 41: Connecting with Facebook friends via Hulu Friends
- Figure 42: Pay-TV channel ÉquipeTV live on Justin.TV
- Figure 43: Evolution of capturing images, according to Qik.com
- Figure 44: Four development scenarios for consumption patterns (disruptive scenarios)
- Figure 45: Change in the European population by age group
- Figure 46: Change in the American population by race
- Figure 47: Annual fluctuation in GDP in the United States and in the Standard & Poor's index
- Figure 48: Annual fluctuation in the wholesale price illustrating long cycles in the US
- Figure 49: Mobile subscriber growth
- Figure 50: Growth of the number of telecommuters in the US, 2006-2008
- Figure 51: Change in the percentage of social networking site users in the US
- Figure 52: Change in the number of users creating content in the US
- Figure 53: IPCC global warming scenarios
- Figure 54: Telecom sector’s carbon footprint
- Figure 55: Growth in the number of income tax statements filed online
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