Asthma and COPD Drug Discoveries: What The Future Holds

Additional Information

About the Author

The report has been researched and written by Espicom staff analyst Karen Holmes. Karen has over 10 years market analysis experience in both medical devices and pharmaceuticals. She was the founding editor of Espicom’s leading market analysis service, World Pharmaceutical Markets (WPM) and continues to contribute to both WPM and Medistat. Among her recent studies are Cardiovascular Drug Discoveries: What the future holds, Injectable Generic Drugs: Prospects and Opportunities to 2010 and The Indian Pharmaceutical Market.

A rapidly expanding sector

An estimated 300 million people around the world have asthma and the European Federation of Allergy and Airway Diseases Patients Association have indicated that this could increase to 400-450 million by 2025. Around 30 million people in Europe have asthma, six million of whom have severe symptoms and around 1.5 million live in fear of dying from an attack.

COPD is one of the top five causes of disability and death in industrial societies. According to the WHO, COPD is the fourth leading cause of death worldwide, based on 2004 data. In the US, COPD is projected to be the third leading cause of death by 2020.

Results of the National Health Interview Survey in the US indicate that 12.1 million adults over the age of 25 reported being diagnosed with COPD in 2001. Of these, 9.2 million reported being diagnosed with chronic bronchitis, 2 million with emphysema and 0.9 million with both conditions. According to the National Heart, Blood and Lung Institute, this compares with around 24 million adults in the US who have evidence of impaired lung function, which suggests COPD is under-diagnosed.

According to the European Respiratory Society, the total cost of asthma in Europe is €17.7 billion per year (White Book, 2003). In the UK, around 5.2 million people are currently receiving treatment for asthma. Of these, 1.1 million are children, equivalent to one in ten. According to Asthma UK, asthma costs the NHS an average of £889 million per year.

Questions, Questions

• What global revenue is Boehringer Ingelheim’s novel COPD treatment Spiriva forecast to achieve in 2011?
• What issue may effect the growth of Novartis/Genetech’s Xolair in Europe?
• What future revenues could be expected by AstraZeneca following the recent approval of Symbicort in the US?
• To what degree will generic competition effect future revenues of GSK’s market leading Seretide/Advair?
• There are 29 compounds for Asthma and COPD in Phase I/II - what are they and who’s developing them?

Current products evaluated and forecast to 2011 in the report

• Xopenex
  • levalbuterol, Sepracor
• Flixotide/Flovent
  • fluticasone propionate, GSK
• Pulmicort
  • budesonide, AstraZeneca
• Asmanex
  • mometasone furoate, GSK
• Alvesco
  • ciclesonide+formoterol, Altana
• Spiriva
  • tiotropium, Boehringer Ingelheim
• Seretide/Advair
  • fluticasone+salmeterol, GSK
• Symbicort
  • budesonide+formoterol, AstraZeneca
• Singulair
  • montelukast, Merck
• Xolair
  • omalizumab, Genentech/Novartis

Future products evaluated and forecast in the report

• Ariflo
  • Clomilast, GSK
• Daxas
  • roflumilast, Altana
• Arformoterol
  • Sepracor
• Indacaterol
  • Novartis
• GSK 159797
  • GSK
• NVA237
  • Novartis