Spotlight on Television 2.0 Leaders: Verizon Communications, Inc.

Emerging Media Dynamics, Inc.
June 1, 2006
35 Pages - SKU: EMD1316615
License type:
Spotlight on Television 2.0 Leaders:  Verizon Communications, Inc.

 
Verizon is a leading U.S. incumbent phone company facing, like all of its peers, chronic erosion in its core voice business. In an effort to bridge the transition from old-fashioned telephone company to 21st century full-service communications and entertainment provider, Verizon has embarked on an aggressive strategy to upgrade both its wireline and wireless networks to high-capacity transmission platforms capable of delivering a range of bandwidth-intensive video services.

Now, with the deployment of fiber-to-the-premises technology, Verizon is rolling out very high-speed data services and multichannel video options. Verizon is selling cable-like video services under the brand name FiOS TV and expects to offer multichannel video competition over its fiber plant to 18 million to 20 million homes by 2010. Moreover, Verizon anticipates capturing a 20% to 25% market share in those markets where it does offer video services.

Our report on Verizon delivers a detailed growth model for Verizon's FiOS TV efforts. Based on our analysis, it's clear that Verizon's FTTP deployment goals and video penetration targets are well within the reach of the company, despite some skepticism by investors and competitors. Our model shows that Verizon could easily attain 31% video penetration by year-end 2010 in the markets where it deploys FiOS TV services.

However, even if Verizon meets or exceeds its take-rate goals for FiOS TV, its video subscriber tally won't exceed five million -- we think Verizon could capture 4.34 million customers by year-end 2010, a small number in comparison to its top cable industry rivals. Moreover, despite expected rapid growth, video revenues alone aren't going to make a big impact on Verizon's bottom-line. Verizon’s TV-only revenue could steadily rise from only $14.6 million in Q2 06 to $1.7 billion in Q4 10. Given that Verizon’s Q1 06 revenues totaled $22.97 billion, this amount of revenue would translate into only about 7% of Verizon’s current quarterly revenue.