Prime Prospects - Identification & Forecast of Digital Switch Replacements and Augmentations

Dittberner Associates
January 1, 2005
SKU: BCEQ1136745
License type:
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SCOPE OF THE REPORT
This project will assist vendors in targeting specific telecom operators worldwide who are most likely to buy digital central office switch replacements or additional NGN voice switching capacity during the next 2 - 3 years.

Replacement or added capacity situations will most likely involve one or more of the following scenarios:
  • Older manufacture-discontinued switches are experiencing such high maintenance costs that replacement is called for.
  • Older switches may no longer be supported for spare parts and software enhancements, since the original manufacturer has gone out of business or is bankrupt - or absorbed by another firm and the product line discontinued.
  • Space requirements in the central office make it imperative to have a reduced space (and / or power) requirement versus existing digital switches, plus their expansion and / or collocation space needs.
  • Capacity exhaust of maximum port size and / or BHCA demands augmentation / replacement.
  • Growth in subscriber base for POTs plus dialup Internet requires sizable sustained upgrade in capacity - at least in certain geographic areas.
  • General overall subscriber growth in countries with low wireline penetration.
The database will analyze the digital switches installed by all operators worldwide with over 200,000 wireline subscribers since 1975

OBJECTIVES OF THIS REPORT FOR TELECOM EQUIPMENT SUPPLIERS
This program will assist you in identifying the operators in every country of the world with a high-probability of buying some form of digital switching replacements or new NGN switches to meet anticipated demands over the next 2 - 3 years.

The analysis and research in this study will include the following:
  • Utilizing our exclusive/proprietary database of digital switch installed base to segment shipment in roughly 2-year increments since 1970, to identify obsolete and / or no-longer supported switches held by operators, and the age segmentation of each operator’s digital switches.
  • Using best wireline subscriber growth estimates directly from the sources to identify where real growth is still taking place (by operator).
  • Verifying with each switch vendor which of their switching systems are no longer supported - or soon to be non-supported.
  • Review penetration of cellular and wireline telephony in the country to determine whether sizable cellular replacement of wireline phones is likely to occur soon, and hence little growth in wireline.
  • Perform spot-checks with operators of suspect digital switching systems deemed to be "replaceable" to verify likely plans or recent actions of the operators utilizing such systems to replace them.
  • Complete forecast of realistic replacement volume and type of replacement planned.
  • DAI would use the results of a sampled interview program with some 40 carriers worldwide on the topic of NGN plans to identify specific spending plans and profiles.
  • Permit a realistic assessment of the strategies being utilized by service providers worldwide regarding further growth of their installed base of digital switches or replacement with Next Generation Digital Switching or Softswitch/Media Gateway based solutions.
  • Provide insights on telecom service provider plans for expansion capping or replacing digital central office switching systems during the next decade years.
  • Guide your sales and marketing efforts to those telecom service providers who have already decided to cap or start replacing digital switches, as well as to the countries and regions most likely to be strong prospects for NGN switching equipment in the next few years.
  • Provide an informed forecast of digital switching system host and port growth through 2010 - for wireline service providers.


  • Technology Assessment and Forecast
  • Presentation of New Technology Products Currently Offered Now on World Markets
  • Eight-Year Cost-Based Price Forecasts for New Systems
  • Analysis of Pioneering User Experience with the New Technology Products
  • Cost-Benefit Analysis of Potential Applications of the New Technology Products/Systems
  • Installed base and on-order position by operator and country for each supplier's product in this arena
  • Forecast of Impacts - Revenue increase or cost-reductions - of New Technology Implementation
  • Market forecast for the next eight years
  • Action Recommendations for Telecom service providers in highly developed, moderately advanced, and lesser-developed countries.
 

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