NGN Deployment Plans - Major US & European Network Operators

SCOPE OF THE REPORT

The purpose of this study is for NGN Vendors to determine how, why and when carriers will move from the RFI / trial stage to real NGN deployment. This study provides NGN vendor management with an understanding of service provider's main requirements, deployment plans and overall strategy guidelines for TDM switch replacement and/or next generation networks technology implementation.

The scope of this project is the current and future (short-term) status of next generation network technologies deployment, with particular focus on major applications, existing services enhancements, new services, and operations improvement, being implemented as the result of NGN deployment.

CARRIER AND GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE

The geographic scope is the United States and Europe. The carriers of major interest are those US and European carriers, which are already utilizing or are known to be planning, some form of NGN solutions for their networking needs.

CUSTOMER SEGMENT

The objectives to be achieved from the scope of the report was to permit NGN vendor management to have insight into the level of interest of telecom operators in deploying NGN solutions and introducing softswitch integrated applications/services. In order to make the objectives of this study achievable the following telecom operators and executives were interviewed:

• ILECS - US
• 1 BellSouth Birmingham, AL
• 2 BellSouth International Atlanta, GA
• 3 Broadwing (Cincinnati Bell + IXC Communications) Cincinnati, OH
• 4 Qwest Communications Denver, CO
• 5 Qwest Communications Denver, CO
• 6 SBC Communications San Antonio, TX
• 7 SBC Communications San Antonio, TX
• 8 SBC Communications San Antonio, TX
• 9 Sprint Kansas City, MO
• 10 Verizon Bedminster, New Jersey
• CLECS - US
• 1 Allegiance Telecom Dallas, TX
• 2 Allegiance Telecom Dallas, TX
• 3 ALLTEL Little Rock, AK
• 4 CenturyTel Monroe, LA
• 5 CenturyTel Monroe, LA
• 6 CT Communications "CTC" Concord, NC
• 7 CT Communications "CTC" Concord, NC
• 8 ITC^Deltacom West Point, GA
• 9 NTS Communications Lubbock, TX
• 10 Paetec Communications Rochester, NY
• 11 TDS METROCOM Madison, WI
• 12 Time Warner Telecom Denver, CO
• CLECS - EUROPE
• 1 Colt Telecom London, England
• 2 Colt Telecom London, England

TIME FRAME

The time frame of this study addresses the current critical requirements for NGN deployment and short-term (2002 - 2003) assessment of the deployment plans of next generation networks and services by major U.S. and European operators.

PRIMARY RESEARCH OBJECTIVES

The primary objective of this study is to provide NGN vendor management with enough factual data and insights into the carrier's current and future plans regarding NGN deployment, which will allow them to reach decisions on the timing, achievable market and competitive posture for their planned NGN solution for wireline markets. The results of this study address the following:

• Provides a comprehensive and accurate assessment of the short term (2002 - 2003) deployment plans of next generation networks of major U.S. and European operators,
• Provides an analysis of major applications, services enhancements, and new services, being implemented as the result of NGN deployment.

DETAILED RESEARCH OBJECTIVES Specifically, the study answers the following issues as addressed by some NGN vendor management:

• Provides information on the current status of NGN deployment by service providers
• Provides insights as to why these service providers are not deploying NGN solutions. What are the main barriers to adoption
• Provides information on when these carriers are planning to stop investing in legacy TDM switched network solutions
• Provides estimates of how much these service providers are planning to spend on NGN solutions
• Provides insights on approximate timing when these service providers are planning to widely deploy IP-based NGNs (define "deployment" timing for each service provider)
• Provides information on how long these carriers expect the rollout of the new services to take
• Provides insights on these carriers' architectural preferences regarding NGN solutions deployment (in other words what architectures do they prefer to implement?)
• Provides information on the most important/attractive services that these service providers are planning to deploy
• Provides information on who is the preferable main supplier for NGN solutions and why, including what criteria is being used or currently evaluated to buy NGN solutions
• Provides insights if these service providers are willing to consider choosing multiple vendor solutions
• Provides information on the major value drivers and expected benefits from deploying NGN solutions
• Provides information on whether these service providers have issued or are planning to issue (when) an RFI/RFP for NGN solutions
• Provides information on whether these service providers offer TDM or packet-based voice and/or data services now or by January 2003
• Provides information on main equipment suppliers these carriers use to offer voice or IP services and/or to transport voice traffic now and by January 2003

LIMITATIONS AND EXCLUSIONS

The findings, conclusions and strategic recommendations presented to the reader are primarily derived from:

• Comprehensive direct interviews conducted with the executive management of a representative sample of operators located in United States and Europe, involved in network planning/engineering and marketing
• Dittberner Associates' extensive databases and recent multiclient studies in the fields of IP telephony, ATM / IP Switching in Public Networks, and OSS for next generation networks.

The following issues were not considered to be part of this study:

NO FORECAST OF POTENTIAL ADDRESSABLE MARKET

A comprehensive forecast of the NGN vendor's achievable market, as opposed to the overall potential market for NGN class of products, was not called for in this study. However, we have provided information on NGN budgeted expenditures provided to us by interviewed carriers.

STRATEGIC ACTION RECOMMENDATIONS PROVIDED BASED ONLY ON INTERVIEW RESULTS

A specific recommendation on whether vendors' NGN solutions are competitive when offered on the world market was not to be made, unless such results were obvious from the results of the interview program. Hence we have no factual basis for making strategic action recommendations relevant to the vendor's NGN family of products and / or evaluating NGN program costs in relation to revenues to arrive at a firm recommendation.

NO COMPREHENSIVE PRODUCT ANALYSIS

A detailed analysis of competitive NGN solutions was not part of the scope and objectives of this study.