Fixed-mobile Convergence (FMC) Carrier Trends, Status and Services
Dittberner Associates
April 1, 2006 230 Pages - SKU: BCEQ1327341
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The objectives of this initial study are to answer the following questions regarding the convergence of fixed and mobile communications (FMC):
- How and to what extent FMC could impact carrier’s competitiveness, market position and financial performance?
- Will this impact differ depending on whether a carrier has strong market positions in both fixed and mobile telephony?
- How will mobile-only carriers compete against full service carriers offering FMC services?
- Does FMC correspond to a real market demand, or is it primarily a strategy for carriers to add more value and fight new competition, or both?
- Is FMC primarily a strategy to integrate separate network infrastructures (“siloed networks”), and improve carriers’ operational performance (Opex, Capex, time to market, etc.)?
- Will carriers be able to derive sizable incremental revenue from services associated with FMC?
- Which carriers are best positioned to take advantage of FMC opportunities?
- In which countries FMC is likely to take off first?
- What is the current status of FMC deployments? What FMC solutions/services have already been implemented?
This first report comprises three parts:
1. An analysis of the strategic framework pertaining to FMC, including:
- Development trends of fixed, and mobile communications,
- Major carriers’ involvement and market positions in fixed and mobile telephony, and potential impact of FMC on their business,
- Factors related to the marketing of FMC services,
2. A status report on FMC activities and initiatives of 21 major networks operators around the world. Each case study presents the carrier’s involvement in wireline and wireless mobile network services, and its current FMC/IMS activities, and corresponding development plans (trials/deployments, alliances, etc.).
3. A carrier business case, related to a large ILEC with a major cellular mobile telephony business, covering the impact of incremental revenue, OPEX, CAPEX on income, cash flow and ROI. The business case uses a model, which is part of the report, allowing users to test their own assumptions, and develop extensive sensitivity analyses.
Scope of analyses
Countries
The statistical analyses in this project are based on the 31 countries that had more than 10 million cellular mobile subscribers at the end of 2004. These countries, listed below, represented at the end of 2005 nearly 87% of the world’s total estimated number of mobile subscribers (approximately 2 billion). These 31 countries also accounted for 86.7% of the world’s total main access lines at the end of 2004. The analyses based on this sample of countries, are therefore quite representative of the entire world telecommunications industry.
Americas
- Argentina
- Brazil
- Canada
- Colombia
- Mexico
- United States
Europe
- Czech Republic
- France
- Germany
- Greece
- Italy
- Netherlands
- Poland
- Portugal
- Romania
- Russia
- Spain
- Ukraine
- United Kingdom
Asia, Pacific & Africa
- Australia
- China
- India
- Indonesia
- Japan
- Korea
- Malaysia
- Philippines
- Taiwan
- Thailand
- Turkey
- South Africa
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- 1 OBJECTIVES OF PROGRAM
- 1.1 INITIAL STUDY
- 1.2 SUBSEQUENT STUDIES: MONITORING OF FMC DEVELOPMENTS
- 1.3 SCOPE OF ANALYSES
- 1.3.1 Countries
- 1.3.2 Operators
- 2 STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK FOR FMC
- 2.1 TRENDS IN FIXED AND MOBILE COMMUNICATIONS
- 2.1.1 Introduction
- 2.1.2 Main access lines
- 2.1.2.1 Wireline telephony revenue trends
- 2.1.3 Evolution of cellular mobile telephony
- 2.1.3.1 Mobile telephony subscribers
- 2.1.3.2 Mobile telephony revenue trends
- 2.1.4 Comparison fixed vs. mobile
- 2.1.4.1 Main access lines vs. mobile subscribers
- 2.1.4.2 Fixed-mobile revenue comparison
- 2.1.5 Conclusions
- 2.2 MAJOR CARRIERS’ STRATEGIC POSITION
- 2.2.1 Impact of carriers’ present position
- 2.2.2 Major carriers’ position
- 2.2.2.1 Involvement of major ILECs in cellular mobile business
- 2.2.2.2 Major mobile carriers without wireline carriers’ affiliations
- 2.2.3 Summary and comments
- 2.3 MARKETING
- 2.3.1 Introduction
- 2.3.2 Examples of existing FMC services/solutions
- 2.3.3 Potential FMC services
- 2.3.3.1 Services for which convergence could make sense
- 2.3.4 FMC services applications and user segments
- 2.3.4.1 CRM (Customer Relationship Management)
- 2.3.4.2 Voice services
- 2.3.4.3 Broadband Internet access
- 2.3.4.4 IP-VPN
- 2.3.4.5 Video broadcast and VoD
- 2.3.4.6 Major residential FMC services
- 2.3.4.7 Major corporate/business FMC services
- 2.3.5 Carriers’ potential incremental revenues
- 2.3.5.1 Generic FMC strategic alternatives for fixed and mobile carriers
- 2.3.5.2 Incremental revenue potential
- 3 CARRIERS’ FMC DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITIES
- 3.1 AT&T (SBC COMMUNICATIONS)
- 3.1.1 Carrier synopsis
- 3.1.2 Revenue trends
- 3.1.3 FMC Activities
- 3.1.3.1 FMC services currently offered (former SBC)
- 3.1.3.2 FMC service development plans
- 3.1.3.3 (SBC) AT&T’s IMS initiatives
- 3.1.3.4 Concurrent developments
- 3.2 BELLSOUTH
- 3.2.1 Carrier synopsis
- 3.2.2 Revenue trends
- 3.2.3 BellSouth’s FMC activities
- 3.2.3.1 FMC services development plans
- 3.2.3.2 BellSouth’s IMS initiatives
- 3.2.3.3 Concurrent developments
- 3.3 BRASIL TELECOM
- 3.3.1 Carrier synopsis
- 3.3.2 Revenue trends
- 3.3.3 Brazil Telecom’s FMC activities
- 3.3.3.1 FMC services currently provided
- 3.3.3.2 FMC service development plans
- 3.3.3.3 Brasil Telcom’s IMS initiatives
- 3.3.3.4 Concurrent developments
- 3.4 BRITISH TELECOM
- 3.4.1 Carrier synopsis
- 3.4.2 Revenue trends
- 3.4.3 British Telecom’s FMC activities
- 3.4.3.1 FMC services currently provided
- 3.4.3.2 FMC service development plans
- 3.4.3.3 British Telecom’s IMS initiatives
- 3.4.3.4 Concurrent developments
- 3.5 CHINA UNICOM
- 3.5.1 Carrier synopsis
- 3.5.2 Revenue trends
- 3.5.3 China Unicom’s FMC activities
- 3.5.3.1 FMC service development plans
- 3.5.3.2 China Unicom’s IMS initiatives
- 3.5.3.3 Concurrent developments
- 3.6 CINGULAR WIRELESS
- 3.6.1 Carrier synopsis
- 3.6.2 Revenue trends
- 3.6.3 FMC activities
- 3.6.3.1 FMC services currently provided
- 3.6.3.2 FMC service development plans
- 3.6.3.3 Cingular’s IMS initiatives
- 3.6.3.4 Concurrent developments
- 3.7 DEUTSCHE TELEKOM
- 3.7.1 Carrier synopsis
- 3.7.2 Revenue trends
- 3.7.3 FMC activities
- 3.7.3.1 FMC services
- 3.7.3.2 Deutsche Telekom’s IMS initiatives
- 3.7.3.3 Concurrent developments
- 3.8 FRANCE TÉLÉCOM
- 3.8.1 Carrier synopsis
- 3.8.2 Revenue trends
- 3.8.3 FMC activities
- 3.8.3.1 FMC services currently provided
- 3.8.3.2 FMC service development plans
- 3.8.3.3 France Télécom’s IMS initiatives
- 3.8.3.4 Concurrent developments
- 3.9 KPN
- 3.9.1 Carrier synopsis
- 3.9.2 Revenue trends
- 3.9.3 FMC activities
- 3.9.3.1 FMC services currently provided
- 3.9.3.2 FMC service development plans
- 3.9.3.3 KPN’s IMS initiatives
- 3.9.3.4 Concurrent developments
- 3.10 KT CORPORATION
- 3.10.1 Carrier synopsis
- 3.10.2 Revenue trends
- 3.10.3 FMC activities
- 3.10.3.1 FMC services currently provided
- 3.10.3.2 FMC service deployment plans
- 3.10.3.3 KT’s NGN/IMS initiatives
- 3.10.3.4 Concurrent developments
- 3.11 NTT CORPORATION
- 3.11.1 Carrier synopsis
- 3.11.2 Revenue trends
- 3.11.3 FMC activities
- 3.11.3.1 FMC services currently provided
- 3.11.3.2 FMC service development plans
- 3.11.3.3 NTT’s IMS initiatives
- 3.11.3.4 Concurrent developments
- 3.12 ROGER COMMUNICATIONS
- 3.12.1 Carrier synopsis
- 3.12.2 Revenue trends
- 3.12.3 FMC activities
- 3.12.3.1 FMC services currently provided
- 3.12.3.2 FMC service development plans
- 3.12.3.3 Rogers’s IMS initiatives
- 3.12.3.4 Concurrent developments
- 3.13 SPRINT NEXTEL
- 3.13.1 Carrier synopsis
- 3.13.2 Revenue trends
- 3.13.3 FMC activities
- 3.13.3.1 FMC services currently provided
- 3.13.3.2 FMC service development plans
- 3.13.3.3 Sprint’s IMS initiatives
- 3.13.3.4 Concurrent developments
- 3.14 SWISSCOM
- 3.14.1 Carrier synopsis
- 3.14.2 Revenue trends
- 3.14.3 FMC activities
- 3.14.3.1 FMC services currently provided
- 3.14.3.2 FMC services deployment plans
- 3.14.3.3 Swisscom’s IMS initiatives
- 3.14.3.4 Concurrent developments
- 3.15 TDC
- 3.15.1 Carrier synopsis
- 3.15.2 Revenue trends
- 3.15.3 FMC activities
- 3.15.3.1 FMC services currently provided
- 3.15.3.2 FMC service deployment plans
- 3.15.3.3 TDC’s IMS initiatives
- 3.16 TELECOM ITALIA
- 3.16.1 Carrier synopsis
- 3.16.2 Revenue trends
- 3.16.3 FMC activities
- 3.16.3.1 FMC service development plans
- 3.16.3.2 Telecom Italia’s IMS initiatives
- 3.16.3.3 Concurrent developments
- 3.17 TELEFÓNICA
- 3.17.1 Carrier synopsis
- 3.17.2 Revenue trends
- 3.17.3 FMC activities
- 3.17.3.1 FMC services development plans
- 3.17.3.2 Telefónica’s IMS initiatives
- 3.17.3.3 Concurrent developments
- 3.18 TELIASONERA
- 3.18.1 Carrier synopsis
- 3.18.2 Revenue trends
- 3.18.3 FMC activities
- 3.18.3.1 FMC services development plans
- 3.18.3.2 TeliaSonera’s IMS’s initiatives
- 3.18.3.3 Concurrent developments
- 3.19 TELKOM SOUTH AFRICA
- 3.19.1 Carrier synopsis
- 3.19.2 Revenue trends
- 3.19.3 FMC activities
- 3.19.3.1 FMC services currently provided
- 3.19.3.2 Telkom’s IMS initiatives
- 3.19.3.3 Concurrent developments - Telkom
- 3.19.3.4 Concurrent developments - Vodacom
- 3.20 VERIZON
- 3.20.1 Carrier synopsis
- 3.20.2 Revenue trends
- 3.20.3 FMC activities
- 3.20.3.1 FMC services currently provided
- 3.20.3.2 Short term FMC service development plans
- 3.20.3.3 Verizon’s IMS initiatives
- 3.21 VODAPHONE
- 3.21.1 Carrier synopsis
- 3.21.2 Revenue trends
- 3.21.3 FMC activities
- 3.21.3.1 FMC services currently provided
- 3.21.3.2 FMC service development plans
- 3.21.3.3 Vodafone’s IMS initiatives
- 3.21.3.4 Concurrent developments
- 3.22 CASE STUDIES SUMMARY
- 3.22.1 Carriers’ networks
- 3.22.2 IMS initiatives
- 3.22.3 Dual mode terminals
- 3.22.4 Other FMC services
- 3.22.5 Fixed mobile substitution
- 4 FMC BUSINESS CASE
- 4.1 ANALYTICAL MODEL
- 4.1.1 Methodology and scope
- 4.1.1.1 Basic approach
- 4.1.1.2 Business case scope and major variables/parameters
- 4.1.2 Model structure for fixed services
- 4.1.3 Model structure for mobile services
- 4.2 BUSINESS CASE ASSUMPTIONS & PARAMETERS
- 4.2.1 US market data
- 4.2.2 Reference scenario assumptions
- 4.2.2.1 Fixed revenue
- 4.2.2.2 Mobile revenue
- 4.2.2.3 Operating expenses: Fixed
- 4.2.2.4 Operating expenses: Mobile
- 4.2.3 FMC/IMS business case assumptions
- 4.2.3.1 Fixed revenue
- 4.2.3.2 Mobile revenue
- 4.2.3.3 Fixed operating expenses
- 4.2.3.4 Mobile operating expenses
- 4.3 RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS
- 4.3.1 Reference scenario
- 4.3.2 FMC/IMS scenario
- 4.3.3 Potential impact of FMC/IMS implementation
- 4.3.3.1 Impact of FMC/IMS investment on revenue
- 4.3.3.2 Impact of FMC/IMS investment on operating expenses
- 4.3.3.3 Impact of FMC/IMS investment on income
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