UK Motor Insurance 2005
Datamonitor
January 25, 2006 214 Pages - SKU: DFMN1217380
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Countries covered: United Kingdom
Introduction
In the face of increasing competitive pressures, the UK motor insurance market is currently in a soft cycle phase. This report examines the market's performance in terms of GWP, profitability, competitor performance and strategy. It also provides forecasts for GWP and underwriting results to 2010, making it essential reading for anyone with an interest in the UK motor insurance market.
Scope
- Extensive coverage of GWP, underwriting result and claims is provided for comprehensive, non-comprehensive, motorcycle, fleet and commercial vehicle
- Consumer data provides insight into motor insurance purchasing habits and competitor data reveals key players' performances and strategies
- Analysis of the major competitive issues, supported by interviews with senior industry executives and data from a range of secondary sources
- GWP and underwriting result forecasts to 2010, based on Datamonitor's in-house expertise and proprietary models
Highlights
Increased competition and falling premium rates caused GWP to decline in both the commercial and private motor markets in 2004. The private motor sector was particularly competitive with new entrants and established players both competing on price to grow or retain market share.
The motor market's recent underwriting losses have increased due to the poor performance of the private sector. However, the underwriting cycle is becoming less volatile, mainly due to the more consolidated competitive structure of the motor insurance market.
The Internet as a platform for buying motor insurance has grown from 2 per cent in 2001 to 13 per cent in 2005. Online consumers display relatively lower levels of loyalty and are more price sensitive. Insurers who focus on Internet distribution may therefore find it harder to retain the customers they acquire through this platform.
Reasons to Purchase
- Benchmark your performance against that of your competitors
- Understand consumer purchasing and switching behaviour in order to tailor your proposition and optimise retention and acquisition rates
- Develop your business strategy with confidence using Datamonitor's exclusive sector forecasts
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- CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Introduction
- Market context
- Motor insurance GWP fell in 2004 due to soft market conditions
- The motor market's underwriting losses increased in 2004 largely due to the poor performance of the private sector
- Premium rates fell and claims inflation continued to be a problem
- Customer focus
- The direct channel is the most important distribution channel of private motor insurance
- Brokers are, however, still the most important distribution channel for commercial motor insurance
- Customers are generally loyal to their insurer, however customers who arranged their insurance online are more likely to switch insurer
- Competitive dynamics
- 2005 saw several new high-profile entrants to the market
- Different appetites for market growth were evident in 2004 among the top motor insurers
- While the combined ratio of the 20 largest motor insurers improved in 2004, soft market conditions were in evidence
- The future decoded
- GWP is predicted to grow to £18.2 billion by 2010
- The market is not expected to record an underwriting profit until 2010
- CHAPTER 2 INTRODUCTION
- What is this report about?
- Who is the target reader?
- CHAPTER 3 MARKET CONTEXT
- Introduction
- The UK motor parc grew in 2004
- Vehicle registration grew in 2004
- The private vehicle motor parc is naturally dominated by cars
- Cars make up most of the vehicles on the roads but motorcycles are on the increase
- The UK commercial vehicle motor parc is growing
- Company cars and light goods vehicles form the largest group of registered commercial vehicles
- Company cars are also increasing
- New registrations of commercial vehicles increased in 2004
- New registrations of company cars is also rising
- Increasing competition and falling premium rates caused GWP to decline in both the commercial and the private motor markets
- Lloyd's is a fading force in the motor market
- The fall in GWP was driven by falls in both commercial and private lines of business
- Private motor insurance accounts for the biggest percentage of total motor GWP
- Private motor GWP decreased in 2004, with non-comprehensive and motorcycle GWP experiencing the largest reductions
- Non-comprehensive policies are becoming increasingly unpopular
- The commercial market has started to turn with both fleet and commercial vehicle sectors shrinking in GWP terms
- The motor market's underwriting losses increased in 2004 due to the poor performance of the private sector
- Total outgoings increased
- Claims costs rose by more than the compound average claims growth for the last four years
- Commission and expenses also rose in 2004
- Both the commercial and the private sector returned a worse underwriting result in 2004 than in 2003
- The underwriting loss of the private motor market increased to £187 million in 2004
- Private motor's outgoings were driven by increases in commission and expenses
- The commercial motor market returned an underwriting profit in 2004, but the market has started to turn
- The rise in commercial motor outgoings was driven by rising claims costs
- Premium rates fell in 2004, for both the private and the commercial sector
- Average premiums for private motor fell in 2004, more so in the comprehensive than in the non-comprehensive sector
- Commercial premium rates fell in 2004
- The total number of claims fell in 2004
- The costs of personal injury claims drives claims inflation
- The average private comprehensive claim rose by 3.8 per cent in 2004
- The number of non-comprehensive claims increased in 2004 but the total cost of these claims fell
- The motorcycle sector saw both falling claims numbers and costs
- Commercial vehicle average claims costs rose by 1.8 per cent
- The number of fleet claims fell in 2004 but the cost increased
- Several factors affect the cost of motor claims, including the costs of repairs, and the levels of vehicle related theft and road traffic accidents
- Garage charges and replacement part costs both rose in 2004 in line with the general trend of the last decade
- Vehicle costs are not a major claims cost determinant
- The number of thefts of and from vehicles is falling
- Personal injury claims form the main area of concern within claims inflation, however, the number of road traffic accidents are falling
- The number of road accidents fell further in 2004
- There are less road traffic accidents even though there are more vehicles on the roads
- 2004 saw a reduction in the number of fatalities from road traffic accidents
- And there were less casualties as well
- General trends in driver behavior continued in 2004
- More offenses are being detected
- The most common action against a motoring offense is a penalty charge notice
- Men commit the majority of motoring offenses
- Motorists under 21 are over-represented in offense statistics
- Concern about the soft cycle, uninsured driving, and FSA regulation continue to affect the UK motor market
- The soft cycle may not be as bad as previous soft cycles
- The market entered a soft cycle in 2004
- The steep competition continued in 2005
- 2007 may again see a turn in the market
- Uninsured driving is still a problem in the UK but the MID may improve the situation
- Complying with FSA regulations has cost insurers time and money but they are mainly happy with the actual requirements
- CHAPTER 4 CUSTOMER FOCUS
- Introduction
- 2004 saw general trends in distribution continue
- In the private market the direct channel is growing while brokers are losing influence
- The direct channel has grown to become the most important distribution channel
- Brokers and other intermediaries are decreasing
- Corporate partnerships have achieved successful growth whereas the amount of private motor insurance distributed via banks remains almost unchanged
- Company staff and other company agents distribute less motor insurance in 2005 than in 2000
- Most motor insurance is arranged by phone but online arrangements are on the rise
- More than 70 per cent of private motor insurance is arranged by telephone
- The Internet is increasingly important
- For commercial insurance brokers and intermediaries are the main distribution channels
- National brokers are the largest intermediary type
- Distribution by chain brokers and telebrokers has decreased
- Tied agents and company agents play a minor role
- Other intermediaries have benefitted from ABI re-classifications
- Commercial motor may be a growing area of focus for banks and building societies
- Utilities, retailers and affinities see growth potential in commercial motor
- Direct channel is posed for growth
- iMarket offers both the benefit of quick quotes and the threat of commoditization of commercial insurance
- Motor insurance customers are loyal but price sensitive
- Customers are generally loyal to their insurer, however customers who arranged their insurance online are more likely to switch insurer
- Customers have become more loyal to their motor insurer
- Older consumers are more loyal to their provider
- Online consumers are most likely to have changed their insurer at their last renewal
- People who arranged their motor insurance via an agent's visit or via post were less likely to have changed insurer
- Customers who buy online are more price conscious than customers who buy through other platforms
- Younger people are more focused on price than older people
- Consumers use a variety of sources for finding information about their motor policy
- Previous experience is an important source of information so securing a good service for existing customers is key to their retention
- Mailshots and brochures are mainly used by older people
- Brokers' advice is relatively unimportant in the motor market
- TV advertisements are effective across all age bands
- Younger consumers rely on recommendations from friends and family
- Telephone directories are also a common information source for younger consumers
- Unsurprisingly, the young are more disposed to Internet research
- The effectiveness of other sources of information varies
- Spending on advertising has grown rapidly as competition heats up
- Insurers spend most on advertising
- Large insurers drive advertising spend
- The top 10 advertisers favor the TV
- But direct mail is also popular with some insurers
- Direct mail is an important tool for mid-sized spenders
- The amounts spent on television advertising are growing
- Direct mail is an important advertisement medium for some insurers
- Other media are less popular
- Advertising spending clearly helps to build brand awareness
- CHAPTER 5 COMPETITIVE DYNAMICS
- Introduction
- Several factors played a role in forming the competitive context of the motor insurance market in 2004 and 2005
- Acquisitions have not been a major priority for insurers in 2005
- 2005 saw several new entrants to the private motor market
- Women-only insurers have been boosted by the current status quo on gender-specific information
- Barclays rebranded its general insurance offering in 2005 with ambitious targets for growth
- The commercial market has also seen some new entrants
- 2004 was competitive and saw cuts in premium rates
- 2005 also looks very competitive but has seen small increases in premium rates
- Differing appetites for market share growth are evident
- The top 10 motor insurers have won market share from smaller competitors, demonstrating further market consolidation
- The top 10 has only seen one change in ranking position
- Five of the top 10 players have won market share
- Two players saw no change in market share
- Three players lost market shares in 2004
- Medium sized insurers displayed a very mixed performance
- Some players won large market shares
- Some players lost large market shares
- Commercial lines are becoming increasingly important to the top 10
- The top 10 now includes three players who write exclusively private motor lines but for the rest, commercial lines are becoming more important
- The private motor market is increasingly consolidated
- There have been several changes to the top 10 private motor insurers in 2004
- Private motor insurance is dominated by comprehensive motor insurance
- The commercial market is very consolidated
- There have been several changes to the top 10 commercial motor insurers in 2004
- Fleet insurance is important for most top 10 commercial insurers
- While the combined ratio of the 20 largest motor insurers improved in 2004, soft market conditions were in evidence
- The loss ratio of the top 20 motor insurers fell marginally in 2004, although only 3 of the top 10 players assisted in this trend
- Mid-sized motor insurers displayed more underwriting discipline in 2004 than those in the top 10
- Portfolio rationalization has proved successful for several competitors
- Conversely, some players have seen loss ratios worsen, while motor books have shrunk
- GEP growth came at the cost of higher loss ratios for seven of the top 20 players in 2004
- Only four players benefited from a concurrent GEP rise and loss ratio improvement in 2004
- Expense ratios are rising slightly in the motor sector, as premium rate increases fail to keep pace with operating expenses
- Three competitors benefited from an improved expense ratio, as they scaled back their motor books in 2004
- However, a similar number saw expense ratios rise while their premium income fell
- Churchill and Highway suffered, with an increase in expense ratio despite premium income growth
- UKI and Esure see rising costs offset by robust rises in premium income
- A slight improvement in the combined ratio of the top 20 motor insurers masks a mixed performance and irrefutable signs of market softening
- Profitability analysis presents a mixed picture for the top 20 motor insurers overall
- Several players are better placed to tackle softer market conditions than others
- CIS, Esure and AXA must move towards more profitable underwriting
- CHAPTER 6 THE FUTURE DECODED
- Introduction
- The neutral forecast scenario is based on limited premium rate increases in 2006 and 2007
- In the neutral scenario GWP is expected to grow to £18.2 billion by 2010
- In the optimistic scenario premium rate increases are expected to be higher
- In the optimistic scenario GWP is predicted to grow to £19 billion in 2010
- In the neutral scenario the compound annual growth rate is 0.8 percentage points smaller between 2005 and 2010 than in the optimistic scenario
- The underwriting results for the total, private and commercial markets follow the same general pattern
- The total market will be unprofitable until 2010
- The cycle is expected to be less volatile
- Private motor is expected to return an underwriting loss of £326 million in 2007
- Commercial motor is predicted to reach the trough of the soft cycle in 2007
- CHAPTER 7 APPENDIX
- Supplementary data
- Definitions
- Definitions of general terms
- Research methodology
- Distribution estimates methodology
- Ipsos MORI methodology and contacts
- Sample design
- Timescale
- Explanatory notes to competitor tables
- SynThesys Non-Life database
- Future readings
- Relevant links
- Datamonitor's custom research capabilities
- SPP writing team
- List of Tables
- Table 1: Number of vehicles registered in the UK, 1994-2004
- Table 2: Number of new vehicle registrations in the UK, 1994-2004
- Table 3: Numbers of vehicles registered in the UK by body type, 2003-4
- Table 4: Vehicles registered by taxation class, 2000-4
- Table 5: New registrations by taxation class, 2000-4
- Table 6: Commercial vehicles by body type, 2003-4
- Table 7: Registered commercial vehicles, by body type, 2000-4
- Table 8: Number of company cars compared to all cars, 2000-4
- Table 9: Registered vehicles by taxation class, 2003-4
- Table 10: New registrations of commercial vehicles by taxation class, 2000-4
- Table 11: New registrations of company cars, 2000-4
- Table 12: Total motor GWP, 2000-4
- Table 13: Motor GWP split between ABI members, Lloyd's and Other, 1994-2004
- Table 14: Motor GWP by sector, 2000-4
- Table 15: Market share by sector, 2000-4
- Table 16: Private motor market GWP split by line of business, 2000-4
- Table 17: Private motor market share by line of business, 2000-4
- Table 18: Proportion of private cars with comprehensive cover, 1994-2004
- Table 19: Commercial motor insurance GWP by line of business, 2000-4
- Table 20: Commercial market share by line of business, 2000-4
- Table 21: Total motor underwriting account, 1994-2004
- Table 22: Detailed total motor underwriting account, 2000-4
- Table 23: Claims as a percentage of total outgoings, 2000-4
- Table 24: Commission and expenses as a percentage of total outgoings, 2000-4
- Table 25: Comparison between private and commercial underwriting results, 2000-4
- Table 26: Private motor underwriting account, 1994-2004
- Table 27: Detailed private motor underwriting account, 1994-2004
- Table 28: Commercial motor underwriting account, 1994-2004
- Table 29: Detailed commercial motor underwriting account 1994-2004
- Table 30: Average premium prices for private motor, 2000-4
- Table 31: Average premium rates for commercial vehicle and fleet, 1994-2000
- Table 32: Total number of motor claims against total cost of claims, 1994-2004
- Table 33: Private comprehensive claims, 1994-2004
- Table 34: Private non-comprehensive claims, 1994-2004
- Table 35: Motorcycle claims, 1994-2004
- Table 36: Commercial vehicle claims, 2000-4
- Table 37: Fleet claims, 2000-4
- Table 38: Motor price indices compared to retail price inflation (RPI), 1999-2004
- Table 39: Theft of and from motor vehicles, 1994-2004/05
- Table 40: Total number of road accidents in the UK, 1994-2004
- Table 41: The number of accidents relative to the number of registered vehicles, 1994-2004
- Table 42: Road accident casualties in the UK, 2000-4
- Table 43: Actions taken against motoring offenses, 1993-2003
- Table 44: Motoring offenses by age and gender, 2003
- Table 45: Distribution of private motor insurance, 2000-4
- Table 46: Distribution of private motor insurance by platform, 1999-2005
- Table 47: Commercial insurance by distribution channel, market share and GWP, 2000-4
- Table 48: Retention rates among motor insurance consumers, 2001-5
- Table 49: Retention rate by age, 2005
- Table 50: Retention rate by distribution platform 2005
- Table 51: Reasons for choosing a policy, by distribution platform, 2005
- Table 52: Reason for choosing a policy, by age, 2005
- Table 53: Sources of information for motor policy, by age, 2005
- Table 54: Advertisement spending by provider, 2004
- Table 55: Top 10 advertisement spenders, 2004
- Table 56: Top 10 advertisement spenders by media, 2004
- Table 57: The spending of advertisers ranked 11-20 by media, 2004
- Table 58: Top 10 TV advertisers, 2004
- Table 59: Top 10 direct mail advertisers, 2004
- Table 60: Brand awareness of motor insurers, 2004
- Table 61: Top 10 advertising spenders compared to their awareness rates
- Table 62: Average spending 2003-4 compared to consumer awareness
- Table 63: Market share of motor competitors grouped into top 10, 11-20 and the remainder, 2000-4
- Table 64: Top 10 total motor insurers by market share, 2000-4
- Table 65: Top 10 total motor insurers by GEP, 2000-4
- Table 66: Market share of motor insurers ranked 11-20, 2000-4
- Table 67: Motor insurers ranked 11-20 by GEP, 2000-4
- Table 68: Top 10 motor insurers' GEP split between private and commercial, 2004
- Table 69: Top 10 private motor market share in 1994, 2003 and 2004
- Table 70: Top 10 private motor insurers by market share, 2000-4
- Table 71: Top 10 private motor insurers by GEP, 2000-4
- Table 72: Top 10 private motor insurers' comprehensive and non-comprehensive shares of total GEP, 2003-4
- Table 73: Top 10 commercial motor market share in 1994, 2003 and 2004
- Table 74: Top 10 commercial motor insurers by market share, 2000-4
- Table 75: Top 10 commercial motor insurers by GEP, 2000-4
- Table 76: Top 10 commercial motor insurers' split between fleet and commercial vehicle business, 2003-4
- Table 77: GEP compared to loss ratio, top 20 motor insurers, 2003-4
- Table 78: Expense ratio of the top 20 motor insurers, 2003-4
- Table 79: GEP compared to combined ratio, top 20 motor insurers, 2003-4
- Table 80: Neutral scenario: motor GWP forecast by sector, 2000-10f
- Table 81: Optimistic scenario: motor GWP forecast by sector, 2000-10f
- Table 82: Comparison of neutral and optimistic scenarios, 2000-10f
- Table 83: Total motor underwriting result, 2000-10f
- Table 84: Private motor underwriting result, 2000-10f
- Table 85: Commercial motor underwriting result, 2000-10f
- List of Figures
- Figure 1: Direct distribution and the rise of corporate partnerships have eroded brokers' presence in the sale of private motor insurance
- Figure 2: The market is more consolidated today than 10 years ago
- Figure 3: The number of vehicles registered increased by 3.4 per cent in 2004
- Figure 4: There were fewer new registrations in 2004 than in 2003
- Figure 5: Cars constitute the majority of vehicles on the roads
- Figure 6: New registrations of motorcycles have fallen while total registrations have increased
- Figure 7: Company cars and light goods vehicles make up the largest part of commercial vehicles
- Figure 8: The number of commercial vehicles increased in 2004
- Figure 9: The number of company cars increased in 2004
- Figure 10: New registrations of commercial vehicles increased in 2004
- Figure 11: Total motor GWP fell in 2004
- Figure 12: The share of the motor market written by Lloyd's, while always relatively small, has declined since 2001
- Figure 13: Both commercial and private GWP fell in 2004
- Figure 14: GWP fell across all private motor sectors in 2004
- Figure 15: Non-comprehensive policies are increasingly unpopular
- Figure 16: Fleet is the largest sector within commercial motor insurance, but both sectors have decreased between 2003 and 2004
- Figure 17: The total motor market is now far less volatile in terms of profitability
- Figure 18: Both the private and commercial sectors returned a worse underwriting result in 2004 than in 2003
- Figure 19: The private motor underwriting loss has increased since 2001
- Figure 20: The commercial cycle has started to turn
- Figure 21: Non-comprehensive premium rates are increasing faster than comprehensive premium rates
- Figure 22: Average premium rates grew in both the comprehensive and non-comprehensive sectors in 2005
- Figure 23: Average premiums have fallen for fleet and commercial vehicle in 2004
- Figure 24: Claims costs continue to rise though the number of claims has fallen since 2001
- Figure 25: The price of replacement parts and garage rates have increased while the price of cars fell
- Figure 26: Total vehicle thefts fell in 2004/05
- Figure 27: The number of road accidents has fallen over the last seven years
- Figure 28: The number of accidents is falling while the number of registered vehicles is rising
- Figure 29: Road accident fatalities have fallen sharply in 2004
- Figure 30: Injuries from road traffic accidents are declining
- Figure 31: Use of the penalty charge notice has increased steadily since its introduction in 1994
- Figure 32: Men commit the majority of all motoring offenses
- Figure 33: Drivers under 21 are over-represented in offense statistics
- Figure 34: Direct distribution and the rise of corporate partnerships have eroded brokers' presence in the sale of private motor insurance
- Figure 35: More and more people arrange their motor insurance over the Internet
- Figure 36: Brokers are still the biggest distribution channel in commercial insurance distribution
- Figure 37: Customers have become more loyal to their motor insurer
- Figure 38: Older consumers are less likely to have changed company at the last renewal of their motor insurance
- Figure 39: Internet consumers are least likely to have stayed with the same insurer
- Figure 40: The price of a policy is the most important reason why people choose a company, but it becomes less important with age
- Figure 41: Broker advice, previous experience and mailshot marketing are increasingly important with age
- Figure 42: Younger people are more responsive to recommendations from friends and family and use the internet more
- Figure 43: Direct insurers spend the most on motor insurance advertising
- Figure 44: Top 10 insurance advertisers' spend by media, 2004
- Figure 45: Direct mail is a popular advertising form among spenders ranked 11-20
- Figure 46: There is a clear correlation between brand awareness and advertising spend
- Figure 47: Consistent advertising over time has an even bigger impact on brand awareness
- Figure 48: The top 10 have won market share from smaller players
- Figure 49: Norwich Union is still the market leader
- Figure 50: Four of the top 10 motor insurers do not write commercial business
- Figure 51: The private motor market is more consolidated today than 10 years ago
- Figure 52: Norwich Union is still the market leader in private motor and increased its market share in 2004
- Figure 53: Comprehensive premiums are the biggest source of income in private motor insurance
- Figure 54: The commercial market is more consolidated today than 10 years ago
- Figure 55: The three biggest providers together make up 50 per cent of the commercial motor market
- Figure 56: Three of the top 10 commercial motor insurers do not offer fleet insurance
- Figure 57: Only four of the top 20 motor competitors combined a growing book of business with an improved loss ratio in 2004, highlighting the onset of softening conditions in this sector
- Figure 58: The majority of large motor insurers saw only a minor change in expense ratio in 2004
- Figure 59: Around half of the top 20 motor insurers achieved underwriting profitability in 2004
- Figure 60: Key to the relative importance of forecast variables
- Figure 61: Neutral scenario: factors affecting future motor GWP, 2005e-2010f
- Figure 62: Neutral scenario: factors affecting future motor GWP, 2005e-2010f, cont.
- Figure 63: Neutral scenario: motor GWP forecast by sector, 2000-10f
- Figure 64: Optimistic scenario: factors affecting future private motor GWP 2005e-10f
- Figure 65: Optimistic scenario: factors affecting future motor GWP, 2005e-10f, cont.
- Figure 66: Optimistic scenario: motor GWP by sector 2000-10f
- Figure 67: The optimistic scenario sees quicker GWP growth, demonstrating the beneficial effects of disciplined underwriting
- Figure 68: The total motor market is expected to return a profit by 2010
- Figure 69: The private motor market is also expected to return to profitability in 2010
- Figure 70: The commercial motor market's worst underwriting result is expected in 2007
- Figure 71: Datamonitor's core consulting capabilities
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