Home > Back to Publisher > Report Information

UK Consumer Credit Market Outlook: Q3 2008

Datamonitor
December 23, 2008
17 Pages - SKU: DFMN2091390

Abstract Table of Contents Related Reports

Countries covered: United Kingdom

Introduction

The consumer credit market performed poorly in 2008 under testing economic conditions. In this latest edition of our quarterly Market Outlook Series, we discuss the latest market developments in the UK consumer credit market and provide our latest forecasts for the period 2008-12.

Scope

Provides the latest market sizing figures for the UK consumer credit market.
Covers different lines of consumer credit - credit cards, unsecured personal loans, overdrafts, retail finance and motor finance.
Considers the latest developments in the UK economy and uses these to build up three forecast scenarios for the next four years.
Includes an accompanying interactive Excel model.

Highlights

The consumer credit market saw performance weaken throughout the first three quarters of 2008 as the effects of the credit crunch saw a tightening of restrictions on the supply of credit making it more difficult for consumers to continue to borrow.

Encouraged by falling inflation late in the year, the Bank of England turned its focus to stimulating the economy and as a result it slashed interest rates during the last quarter of 2008. Having previously opposed a reduction in the rate, the members of the Monetary Policy Committee unanimously voted to lower rates.

In November 2008, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Alistair Darling, announced the creation of a new banking bodythe Lending Panelwhich would monitor lending to households and businesses. The panel consists of diverse representatives from bodies such as regulators, banks, building societies, consumer groups the Bank of England and the Government.

Reasons to Purchase

Review market performance in Q3 2008 to place your own performance in context with the overall market
Use Datamonitor's market forecasts to plan your future strategy with confidence.
Understand how the ongoing liquidity crisis has affected lenders and the overall economy.

Please note: this is delivered as a Zip file.

DATAMONITOR VIEW
CATALYST
SUMMARY
ANALYSIS: Year-on-year the consumer credit market fell away in 2008, with lending remaining weak; The consumer credit market performed poorly in 2008; Most credit products saw moderate growth in gross lending during the first three quarters of 2008; The fallout from the liquidity crisis had a big impact on credit products during 2008; Inflationary pressures constrained base rate cuts during the first three quarters of 2008; Lenders have become more conservative in order to cope with the economic downturn; Despite attempts to cut their spending, many consumers need to keep borrowing; Datamonitor expects conditions to deteriorate further during 2009 before improving in 2010; Datamonitor's forecasting model explained; Negative GDP growth and the falling housing market herald tough times for the economy; Falling inflation allowed the Bank of England to cut its base rate; Retail sales showed some stability but car sales plummeted; House prices continued on their downward trajectory; Under its neutral scenario, Datamonitor predicts that all product lines will have a difficult 2009; Datamonitor has analyzed two additional scenarios; Measures are being taken by the government and other bodies to aid the consumer credit market; New lending panel created to monitor loans to households and businesses; The government's proposed tie-up between Lloyds TSB and HBOS will create a UK banking giant; Under the Consumer Credit Act, fixed-sum credit agreements will require annual statements
APPENDIX: Supplementary data; Definitions; Bank of England base rate; Balances outstanding; CAGR; CCJ; Consumer credit; Gross advances; OFT; Overdraft; Methodology; Forecasting methodology; Choice of economic variables; Model outputs; Bespoke scenario based forecasting; Further reading; Ask the analyst; Datamonitor consulting; Disclaimer
List of Tables: Table 1: Quarterly total consumer credit gross advances and balances outstanding in the UK, Q3 2006-Q3 2008; Table 2: UK consumer credit gross advances by product, Q3 2006-Q3 2008 (£m); Table 3: Datamonitor's updated macroeconomic variables for 2007-12: neutral scenario; Table 4: Datamonitor's updated neutral consumer credit forecast by product line, 2007-12 (£bn); Table 5: Datamonitor's updated pessimistic consumer credit forecast by product line, 2007-12 (£bn); Table 6: Datamonitor's updated optimistic consumer credit forecast by product line, 2007-12 (£bn); Table 7: UK consumer credit balances outstanding by product, Q3 2006-Q3 2008 (£m); Table 8: Datamonitor's updated macroeconomic variables for 2007-12: pessimistic scenario; Table 9: Datamonitor's updated macroeconomic variables for 2007-12: optimistic scenario
List of Figures: Figure 1: Total consumer gross lending dropped off after Q4 2007 whereas balances outstanding saw strong growth; Figure 2: There was a moderate improvement for most products although unsecured personal loans saw large year-on-year percentage falls throughout 2008

More United Kingdom Banking Reports

UK Weekly Economic Briefing: 27 Apr 2012 by Oxford Economics
As in the 1990s mortgage crisis, the 2008-9 upturn in the possessions rate was preceded by lower lending quality and rising debt and house price ...

UK Weekly Economic Briefing: 20 Apr 2012 by Oxford Economics
Incorporating new and revised data, our estimate of London's output growth in 2011 has been adjusted upwards to 1.9% - a creditable performance given the ...

Collective Investment Schemes in the UK - Industry Market Research Report by IBISWorld
Collective Investment Schemes in the UK This industry includes the administration of UK domiciled (non-real estate) investment trusts and unit trusts/open-ended investment companies, along with the ...

United Kingdom Commercial Banking Report Q2 2012 by Business Monitor International
Since Q108, we have described numerically the banking business environment for each of the countries surveyed by BMI. We do this through our Commercial Banking ...

Financial Management in the UK - Industry Market Research Report by IBISWorld
Financial Management in the UK The Financial Management industry includes the provision of advice, guidance and operational assistance to businesses and other organisations on issues such ...

See all reports like this >>

More United Kingdom Reports

A Comprehensive Study Of The UK Video Conferencing Equipment Market In 2010, Rating & Valuing Each Of The 30 Companies That Operate In Today's Market by Plimsoll Publishing Ltd.
The Plimsoll Analysis provides you with the most up to date and comprehensive analysis of the top 9 companies operating the market. It is ...

A Comprehensive Study Of The UK Tableware Market In 2010, Rating & Valuing Each Of The 166 Companies That Operate In Today's Market by Plimsoll Publishing Ltd.
The Plimsoll Analysis provides you with the most up to date and comprehensive analysis of the top 9 companies operating the market. It is ...

A Comprehensive Study Of The UK Surveyors & Valuers Market In 2010, Rating & Valuing Each Of The 943 Companies That Operate In Today's Market by Plimsoll Publishing Ltd.
The Plimsoll Analysis provides you with the most up to date and comprehensive analysis of the top 9 companies operating the market. It is ...

A Comprehensive Study Of The UK Subsea Engineering Market In 2010, Rating & Valuing Each Of The 142 Companies That Operate In Today's Market by Plimsoll Publishing Ltd.
The Plimsoll Analysis provides you with the most up to date and comprehensive analysis of the top 9 companies operating the market. It is ...

A Comprehensive Study Of The UK Structural Engineering Consultancy Market In 2010, Rating & Valuing Each Of The 300 Companies That Operate In Today's Market by Plimsoll Publishing Ltd.
The Plimsoll Analysis provides you with the most up to date and comprehensive analysis of the top 9 companies operating the market. It is ...

See all reports like this >>

UK Consumer Credit Market Outlook: Q3 2008

Share this report

Other tasks

Research Assistance

Related Markets

Banking Reports

Free Alert Me service