Oil and Gas Supply - Deep Waters (A 10-year projection and review of oil and gas production and consumption)

Introduction

Having witnessed in 2008 the first major signal that future conventional oil and gas supplies will become much harder to find and more expensive to develop, Datamonitor is publishing this analysis of deep water production around the world. As secure energy supplies become increasingly difficult and expensive to extract, an accurate forecast of supply/demand dynamics becomes more important.

Historically, global economic recessions have led to declining energy demand, but the resultant lower prices have soon led to a recovery in demand and then prices, especially as OPEC has acted to rein in output to tighten supply. This trend has already been reflected in the oil markets to some degree. In the gas sector, supplies will be available only if investment in infrastructure, above all long-distance pipelines and LNG conversion and receiving plants, is well advanced.

Key findings and highlights

• Brazil pioneered deep water development with the discovery of the Albacora field in 1984 in 350-750m of water. It came on-stream in 1987 in the Campos basin. A series of fields along the shelf edge have since been put into production, including the giant Marlim field in 1991, Marlim Sul (1,255m) in 1994 and Roncador (1,290-1,795m) in 1999.
• The first discovery in deep waters, previously defined in the US at 305m, was the Pardner field (347m) in 1968, which finally came on-stream in 2003. The first real significant discovery, however. was Cognac (312m) in 1975, which was also the first on-stream in 1979.
• Angola is the largest deep water oil producer in Africa, now producing over double that of Nigeria. Production began in 2001 from the Girassol field in 1,400m of water in Block 17, reaching a plateau in February 2002.

Reasons to buy

• Gain understanding of which markets will see increased production levels over the next decade
• Identify potential commercial opportunities through an understanding of changing supply dynamics in specific markets
• Analyze the changing balance between shallow and deep water production