TABLE OF CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3
Hot topic 3
CHAPTER 1 CONTEXT 19
Factors driving contemporary consumer trends 19
Consumer values 20
Consumer attitudes 20
Consumer behaviors 21
CHAPTER 2 THE FUTURE DECODED 24
Introduction to the ‘complexity’ mega-trends 24
Mega-trend 1: Age complexity 24
Values and attitudes driving the age complexity mega-trend 25
Behaviors driving the age complexity mega-trend 26
Age complexity best-practice and product examples 29
Mega-trend 2: Gender complexity 32
Values and attitudes driving the gender complexity mega-trend 33
Behaviors driving the gender complexity mega-trend 35
Gender complexity best-practice and product examples 40
Mega-trend 3: Lifestage complexity 42
Boomeranging children 43
Staying single due to delayed marriage and rising divorce rates 45
Extended time spent as older consumers 46
Mega-trend 4: Income complexity 48
Rising purchasing power parity is indicative of rising wealth 48
Complexing behaviors among different income groups 51
High income groups are seeking ‘anti-luxury’ concepts 52
Lower income groups spending on luxury on a budget 53
‘Hi-lo consumption’ is becoming more apparent 55
Introduction to the ‘benefit’ mega-trends 57
Mega-trend 5: Convenience 57
Values and attitudes driving the convenience mega-trend 58
Behaviors driving the convenience mega-trend 60
Convenience product trends 69
Mega-trend 6: Health 74
Values and attitudes driving the health mega-trend 75
Behaviors driving the health mega-trend 78
Health product trends 91
Mega-trend 7: Sensory 96
Values and attitudes driving the sensory mega-trend 97
Behaviors driving the sensory mega-trend 99
Sensory product trends and best practice 107
Mega-trend 8: Individualism 112
Values and attitudes driving the individualism mega-trend 112
Behaviors driving the individualism mega-trend 115
Individualism product trends 119
Mega-trend 9: Comfort 123
Values and attitudes driving the comfort mega-trend 123
Behaviors driving the comfort mega-trend 127
Comfort product trends 133
Mega-trend 10: Connectivity 137
Values and attitudes driving the connectivity mega-trend 137
Behaviors driving the connectivity mega-trend 141
Product trends stemming from connectivity 147
CHAPTER 3 ACTION POINTS 151
Act upon trends using our five rules for trendwatching 151
Recognize that trends last at least 10 years 151
Be aware of counter-trends and the ‘polarizing effect’ 151
Base product offerings on several mega-trends 152
Use fads selectively to boost short-term sales 153
Actively target instances where mega-trends clash or crossover 154
Identify relative trend dynamism for your category 154
CHAPTER 4 APPENDIX 156
Definitions 156
Research methodology 159
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Distinguishing between values and attitudes 21
Table 2: Distinguishing between trends and fads 23
Table 3: Tweens' expenditure on cosmetics and toiletries by country (% of discretionary income), 1998-2008 29
Table 4: Annual number of per capita personal care occasions amongst teenagers, Europe and US (1998-2008) 29
Table 5: Age complexity: best-practise marketing and key opportunities 30
Table 6: European and US men’s personal care usage market value (€m and US$m), 2003-2008 36
Table 7: Gender complexity: best-practice marketing and opportunities 40
Table 8: Family structures across Europe and the US, 1995-2005 43
Table 9: Average age of female at birth of first child in Europe and the US, 1975 - 2005 45
Table 10: Crude divorce rate (divorce per 1000 people) in Europe and the US, 1970-1998 46
Table 11: Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of consumer groups in Europe and the US, 2003-2008 47
Table 12: The Senior lifestage is the longest, a trend that will continue as world populations age 47
Table 13: GDP at PPP per head (US$), 1999-2009 48
Table 14: Wealth groups in Europe for the adult population aged over 20 years old (m) 1999-2009 50
Table 15: Wealth groups in the US for the adult population aged over 20 years old (m) 1999-2009 50
Table 16: Income complexity: best practice in product innovation 56
Table 17: European and US prepared meals market value (US$bn and €bn), 1999 - 2009 61
Table 18: Asia-Pacific and Latin American ready meals markets (US$bn), 1999-2009 61
Table 19: The number of main meal and snacking occasions (billions) in Europe and the US, 2004-2009 62
Table 20: The number of European and US light mealtime occasions (billions), by daypart, 2003-2008 63
Table 21: The value of Asian and Latin American confectionery and savory snack markets (US$bns), 1999-2009 63
Table 22: Combined European and US on-the-move food and drinks value, by category (US$m), 1999-2009 64
Table 23: Number of annual and per person on-the-go eating and drinking occasions (billions), by country, 2003-08 65
Table 24: Change in the number of European and US workplace consumption occasions (billions) by daypart 2003-2008 65
Table 25: Consumers and households using convenience services in Europe and the US, 2001-2006 67
Table 26: Convenience: best practice in product innovation 70
Table 27: Convenience: best practice marketing and positioning 72
Table 28: The value of the Asia-Pacific, European, Latin American and North American personal care markets (US$bns) 1999-2009 77
Table 29: Total functional beauty regime sales by market, Europe and US, 1998-2008 79
Table 30: European and US adult population on a diet (% adults), 2004 81
Table 31: European and US diet markets, (US$m) 1998-2008 82
Table 32: Value of the over-the-counter (OTC) vitamins, minerals and supplements (VMS) and herbal supplements market, Europe and US, (US$m), 1996-2006 87
Table 33: Percentage and total number of natural and organic food and drink consumers by usage status, Europe and US, 2004-09 87
Table 34: Value of European and US natural and organic food and drink markets (US$bn and €bn), 2004-2009 88
Table 35: Value of European and US natural personal care markets (US$bn), 1999-2009 88
Table 36: Per head and total European and US healthy on-the-go eating occasions (billions), 2004-2009 89
Table 37: Per head and total European and US healthy on-the-go drinking occasions (billions), 2004-2009 89
Table 38: Health: best practice in product innovation 91
Table 39: Health: best-practise marketing and key opportunities 94
Table 40: European and US specialty food and drinks sales (US$bn), 2004-2009 101
Table 41: European and US specialty personal care sales (US$m), 2004-2009 101
Table 42: The value (US$m) and number (m) of overall European and US premium food and drink occasions, 1998-2008 103
Table 43: Number of foodservice transactions (millions) in full service and quick service restaurants in Europe, North America, Latin America and Asia-Pacific, 2004-2009 105
Table 44: Sensory: best practice in product innovation 108
Table 45: Sensory: best-practice marketing and positioning 109
Table 46: European and US prestige alcohol and personal care sales, (US$m) 2002-2007 118
Table 47: Individualism: best practice in product innovation 120
Table 48: Individualism: best-practise marketing and key opportunities 121
Table 49: A Latin American and Asian perspective on the importance of family values 126
Table 50: European and US stress relief/pampering personal care market value, 2003-2008 (€m and US$m) 128
Table 51: Comfort: best practice in product innovation 134
Table 52: Comfort: best-practise marketing and key opportunities 135
Table 53: European and US over-50s living alone (%), 1995-2025 140
Table 54: An insight into Latin American and Asian ecological values, by age and country 141
Table 55: Ethical personal care market value, 2004-2009 144
Table 56: Total annual number of entertaining at home gatherings by country, (millions) 2002-2007 145
Table 57: Connectivity: best practice in product innovation 148
Table 58: Connectivity: best-practise marketing and key opportunities 149
Table 59: Definitions used in this report 156
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Values and attitudes are key determinants of consumer behavior 19
Figure 2: Younger consumers are acting older and older consumers are acting younger 24
Figure 3: European and US consumers aged 35-64 spend the most time on personal appearance and are the least happy with their age 25
Figure 4: As consumers age, they place more importance on advertising featuring characters their own age 26
Figure 5: Older consumers’ aspirational ages reflect their fear of aging and desire to be younger 27
Figure 6: Six distinct behaviors characterize the gender complexity mega-trend 32
Figure 7: Consumers across the globe are showing more egalitarian values in accepting the changing roles of women 33
Figure 8: The rise of egalitarianism means that homosexuality is increasingly tolerated across the globe 34
Figure 9: Shows such as ‘Queer Eye for the Straight Guy’ are bringing metrosexuality attitudes to the mainstream 34
Figure 10: The expanded family status lifecycle model shows the trend of complexing lifestages which makes demographic segmentation and targeting all the more difficult 42
Figure 11: Income complexity behaviors are driven by lower income groups seeking luxury on a budget and higher income groups embracing more refined luxurious consumption 51
Figure 12: The 10 mega-trends can be categorized as either ‘benefit’ or ‘complexity’ trends 57
Figure 13: Manufacturers and retailers can target 10 discernable convenience related behaviors 58
Figure 14: Consumers across Europe and the US place considerable importance upon towards time saving products and services 59
Figure 15: More than 50% of European and US consumers are willing to pay extra for time-saving products and services 60
Figure 16: 57% of European and US consumers report that they groom while on-the-move, 2004 66
Figure 17: 58% of European and US consumers admit to grooming while at work 67
Figure 18: Instill these product attributes in offerings to capitalize on consumers’ convenience related needs and behaviors 69
Figure 19: Health is becoming an increasingly complex trend as characterized by the multitude of related consumer behaviors 74
Figure 20: European and US consumers recognize the importance of improving or maintaining good health 75
Figure 21: More than three-quarters of European and US consumers attach importance to improving physical health through diet 76
Figure 22: Consumers believe it is important to be appearance conscious 76
Figure 23: 90% of European and US consumers believe it is important to reduce stress levels 78
Figure 24: During 2003-2004 European and US consumers took active steps to improve their overall physical health 79
Figure 25: During 2003-2004 European and US consumers took active steps to improve their health through diet 79
Figure 26: Nearly 50% of Europeans and Americans reported that they spent more time on their personal appearances in 2003-2004 81
Figure 27: More than half of European and American consumers took active steps to reduce stress levels during 2003-2004 84
Figure 28: Consumers’ health behaviors in the future will be characterized by reduced disparities between attitudes and actual behavior 90
Figure 29: Instill these product attributes in offerings to capitalize on consumers’ health related needs and behaviors 91
Figure 30: There are 7 core behavioral trends emanating from the sensory mega-trend 96
Figure 31: European and US consumers are more open-minded about trying new products and experiences 97
Figure 32: Finding excitement and sensations in life has never been more important to Western consumers 98
Figure 33: The prevalence of risk-taking values continue to drive the sensory mega-trend 98
Figure 34: Nearly half of European and US consumers sought more excitement and sensations in 2003-2004 99
Figure 35: Evidence suggests consumers are seeking more ‘experiential satisfaction’ as opposed to ‘material gratification’ 102
Figure 36: During 2003-2004 European and US consumers increasingly tried new food and drink products 105
Figure 37: Instill these product attributes in offerings to capitalize on consumers’ sensory related needs and behaviors 107
Figure 38: Individualism needs are driven by 3 core behavioral trends 112
Figure 39: Consumers place importance on brands matching their general attitudes and outlook on life 113
Figure 40: Consumers want products designed for their specific needs 114
Figure 41: Marketing must also reflect consumers’ personal situation 114
Figure 42: During 2003-2004 42% of European and US consumers more frequently choose brands that matched their attitudes and outlook on life 116
Figure 43: Consumers increasingly chose products and services customized to their specific needs during 2003-2004 117
Figure 44: European and US consumers believe it is likely that they will buy cosmetics and toiletries with active ingredients for their specific requirements in the future 117
Figure 45: More than 10% of consumers report withholding information in order to remain exclusive 119
Figure 46: Instill these product attributes in offerings to capitalize on consumers’ individualism related needs and behaviors 119
Figure 47: Comfort related behaviors focus on indulgence, safety and simplifying lifestyles 123
Figure 48: Consumers aspire to lead less complicated lifestyles 124
Figure 49: A significant proportion of Europeans and Americans feel there is too much choice when making purchase decisions 124
Figure 50: European and US consumers perceive their homes both as a place of safety and a retreat from the outside world 125
Figure 51: Spending time with the family remains a strong value with consumers doing so more over the course of 2003-2004 126
Figure 52: Nearly half of European and US citizens reported that they consumed comforting food and drinks more frequently during 2003-2004 128
Figure 53: Enjoying small indulgences to escape the pressures of everyday life remains as important as ever 128
Figure 54: In what could be deemed a convenience counter trend, European and US consumers are attempting to slow down by leading a less complicated lifestyles 131
Figure 55: Instill these product attributes in offerings to capitalize on consumers’ comfort related needs and behaviors 133
Figure 56: There are 3 core behavioral trends associated with the connectivity mega-trend 137
Figure 57: Spending time with friends is an important value across Europe and America 138
Figure 58: A significant proportion of consumers regard their home as a place that facilitates connectivity 139
Figure 59: More than half of US and European consumers believe that it is important to purchase ethical or socially responsible products 141
Figure 60: With over 40% of US and European consumers listening to the recommendations of others more often viral and word-of-mouth campaigns could become even more effective 143
Figure 61: Less consumers bought more ethical products in 2003-2004 than those who deem such consumption as important 143
Figure 62: More than 50% of Europeans and US consumers used their homes for entertaining more frequently during 2003-2004 144
Figure 63: Socializing tops the motivations for eating out in the evening 145
Figure 64: Consumers are providing more recommendations to friends/family about everyday products and services 146
Figure 65: Instill these product attributes in offerings to capitalize on consumers’ connectivity related needs and behaviors 147
Figure 66: For every trend there is a counter-trend 152
Figure 67: Industry players can map how their offerings are ‘on-trend’ relative to competitors 153
Figure 68: Many of the major behavioral trends are actually crossovers of two or more influencing mega-trends 154
Figure 69: 3 ways of categorizing trends: the evolving, emerging and established framework 155
