Home > Back to Publisher > Report Information

Epidemiology: Influenza - Incident cases expected to remain stable due to low vaccination rates

Datamonitor
October 5, 2011
7 Pages - SKU: DFMN6647880

Abstract Table of Contents Related Reports

Datamonitor epidemiologists forecast that in 2011 there will roughly 107.51 million incident cases of seasonal influenza in the seven major markets (the US, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK), and approximately 110.54 million cases are predicted for 2021. The number of incident cases of seasonal influenza is expected to remain fairly stable throughout the forecast period.Gain insight into market potential, including a robust 10-year epidemiology forecast of seasonal influenza incident rates.

Understand the key epidemiologic risk factors associated with seasonal influenza.

Datamonitor estimates that the US will have the largest number of incident cases of seasonal influenza between 2011 and 2021. If the five major EU markets are considered as one entity, they will have a significant portion of incident cases throughout the period, with 52.12 million incident cases in 2011 and 52.29 million cases in 2020.For incident cases of seasonal influenza in the seven major markets, children under the age of 15 will have a similar number of total incident cases as adults over the age of 65 years in 2011 (20.92 million cases and 16.52 million cases, respectively).

What are the most robust sources for seasonal influenza incidence data?

How will the patient population change over the next decade in the US, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK?

How do changes in population structure and risk factors affect the trend in incidents of seasonal influenza cases?

Please note: this is delivered as a Zip file.

OVERVIEW: Catalyst; Summary
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Disease background; Forecasted results
DISEASE DEFINITION AND DIAGNOSTIC CRITERIA: Overview of seasonal influenza; Signs and symptoms of seasonal influenza; Transmission of seasonal influenza; Disease seasonality
GLOBAL VARIATION AND HISTORICAL TRENDS: 1918 Spanish flu pandemic; 1957 Asian flu pandemic; 1968 Hong Kong flu pandemic; 2009 H1N1 pandemic
DRIVERS OF SEASONAL INFLUENZA EPIDEMIOLOGY: Infectious disease and chronic health problems can increase susceptibility and severity of seasonal influenza; Low BMI may increase risk of developing complications from seasonal influenza; Vaccination decreases risk of seasonal influenza infection
EPIDEMIOLOGIC FORECASTING OF SEASONAL INFLUENZA: Overview; The US and the five major EU markets (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK); Sources used; Methods; Sources not used; Japan; Sources used; Methods; Sources not used
EPIDEMIOLOGIC RESULTS: Total incident cases of seasonal influenza; Current incident cases; Average annual growth rate; Age-standardized results; Subpopulations for incident cases of influenza; French children under the age of 4 years will have the fewest incident cases of season influenza in 2011; Women in the US will have the largest number of total incident seasonal influenza cases
DISCUSSION: The strength of Datamonitor's epidemiologic projections
BIBLIOGRAPHY: Journal articles; Websites
APPENDIX A: Distribution of seasonal influenza in the US by age group for 2011/12 season
APPENDIX B: Module methodology
TABLES: Table: H1N1 influenza morbidity and mortality in the seven major markets, 2009-10; Table: Sources of influenza data used in this analysis; Table: Total incident cases (millions) of seasonal influenza in the seven major markets, all ages, 2010-20; Table: Age-specific incident cases of seasonal influenza in the seven major markets, 2011; Table: Gender-specific incident cases of seasonal influenza, all ages, 2011
FIGURES: Figure: Trends in total incident cases (millions) of influenza in all ages (0-19) in the seven major markets, 2010-20; Figure: Projected distribution of total incident seasonal influenza cases in the US, by age group, 2011

Epidemiology: Influenza - Incident cases expected to remain stable due to low vaccination rates

Share this report

Other tasks

Research Assistance

Related Markets

Pandemic Vaccines Reports

Free Alert Me service